Recent form
8-2
ATL +2.4 vs NYM +0.8 margin
ATL brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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New York Mets at Atlanta Braves
NYM
NYM
52-67
PregameTue, 7:15 PM EDTMLB.TV
ATL
ATL
71-47
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketTruist Park · Atlanta, Georgia
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Nolan McLean
SP · #26
8-7
W-L
3.51
ERA
1.16
WHIP
156
K
130.2
IP
Last 3 starts
@CLEW(8-7)5.0 IP5 ER8 K
vsMIA-6.1 IP2 ER6 K
vsLADL(7-7)6.0 IP2 ER7 K
Home starter
Martin Perez
SP · #33
7-6
W-L
3.14
ERA
1.15
WHIP
78
K
100.1
IP
Last 3 starts
vsMIA-3.0 IP0 ER3 K
vsWSHW(7-6)7.0 IP0 ER6 K
@NYM-5.0 IP3 ER4 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob38% / 62%
LeanHome · 12pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesNYM lead series 6-4
TypeRegular Season Series
Scouting report · pre-game
ATL vs NYM.
ATL is 8-2 recently; NYM is 6-4.
62.3%
model · ATL win prob
Recent form
- ATL8–2+2.4
- NYM6–4+0.8
Situational
- ATL2d rest
- NYM2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. ATL has 3 straight road games; NYM has 6.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Players to watch
- Nolan McLeanNYM7.2strikeouts · ±1.6
Nolan McLean · 7.2 K · last-10 7.4 vs season 6.8.
- Chris SaleATL7.1strikeouts · ±2.4
Chris Sale · 7.1 K · last-10 7.1 vs season 7.2.
- Sean ManaeaNYM4.6strikeouts · ±1.4
Sean Manaea · 4.6 K · last-10 5 vs season 4.
Head-to-head · 3-4 · last 7
ATL is 3-4 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-07-05NYM @ ATL10–9
- 2026-07-06NYM @ ATL7–6
- 2026-07-27ATL @ NYM3–14
- 2026-07-29ATL @ NYM1–0
- 2026-07-29ATL @ NYM2–3
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
62.6%
ensemble · ATL favored
Elo Static
62.7%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
63.1%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
63.2%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.22 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
99% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
ATL vs NYM.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
120
projections · 98 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Nolan McLeanNYM7.2± 1.6high
- Chris SaleATL7.1± 2.4high
- Christian ScottNYM6.0± 1.6medium
Hits
- Carson BengeNYM1.3± 1.0high
- Mauricio DubonATL1.2± 1.2high
- Matt OlsonATL1.1± 0.9high
Total bases
- Matt OlsonATL2.6± 2.5high
- Ronald Acuna Jr.ATL2.2± 2.5high
- Carson BengeNYM2.1± 1.7high
RBIs
- Dominic SmithATL0.7± 1.1high
- Luis TorrensNYM0.7± 1.4high
- Austin RileyATL0.6± 0.8high
Earned runs
- Bryce ElderATL2.9± 2.4high
- Tyler MahleATL2.6± 2.5medium
- Kodai SengaNYM2.5± 2.6medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
NYM
league avg
ATL
.693
OPS
.719
▶.732
.306
OBP
.318
▶.313
4.19
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.88
4.11
Team ERA
4.17
▶3.60
1.30
WHIP
1.30
▶1.24
9.1
K / 9
◀
8.5
8.7
The One modelEdge
Tue, Aug 11NYM
Mets
62-79
vs62.3%ATL
ATL★
Braves
85-58
NYM 37.7%win prob62.3% ATL
ATL 1548 · NYM 1482Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
