Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in KC at NYM?

The model favors KC, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 9, 2026

FINAL+4NYM

38-56

NYM

40-54

Citi Field · Queens, New York

33,868 attended

Line movement

49 snapshots

NYM spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

NYM no-vig %

57.3%

open 57.3%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYM favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · NYM favored

Elo Static
50.1%
P(NYM win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
49.0%
P(NYM win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
49.8%
P(NYM win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.46 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+124

Close price

+124

Open no-vig

42.7%

Close no-vig

42.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in KC at NYM?: The model favors KC, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Player projections

NYM vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

117

projections · 90 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nolan McLeanNYM
7.0± 1.7high
Christian ScottNYM
5.9± 1.6medium
Noah CameronKC
5.1± 3.3high

Hits

Bo BichetteNYM
1.0± 1.1high
Carson BengeNYM
1.0± 0.9high
Francisco LindorNYM
1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

Francisco LindorNYM
2.0± 3.5high
Salvador PerezKC
1.8± 1.6high
John RaveKC
1.6± 2.4low

RBIs

Luke MaileKC
1.0± 1.6low
Francisco LindorNYM
0.7± 1.9high
Jac CaglianoneKC
0.5± 0.8high

Earned runs

Kodai SengaNYM
3.2± 2.9low
Noah CameronKC
3.0± 2.7high
Seth LugoKC
2.9± 2.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

NYM

.711

OPS

◀

.720

.683

.313

OBP

◀

.318

.303

4.13

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.04

4.87

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.10

1.43

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.29

7.6

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYM wins

KC 3 · NYM 7 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYM +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
KC	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	3
NYM	0	1	0	0	5	0	1	0	7

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Team pages

Kansas City RoyalsNew York Mets

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. ThomasCF	.233	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
B. Witt Jr.SS	.288	4	1	1	1	1	0	0
S. PerezDH	.209	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. MarteRF	.268	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
N. Loftin3B	.254	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
J. CaglianoneRF	.257	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
I. CollinsLF	.237	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
T. TolbertSS	.370	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
L. MaileC	.167	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. Rojas3B	.154	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. JensenC	.246	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		32	3	7	3	2	1	9

Player

.233

.288

.209

.268

.254

.257

.237

.370

.167

.154

.246

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. WachaSP	4.2	6	6	6	3	5	104
L. ErcegRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	15
B. WayRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	8
J. CuasRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	18
Team	8.0	10	7	7	4	7	145

Player

M. WachaSP

4.2

104

L. ErcegRP

1.1

B. WayRP

1.0

J. CuasRP

1.0

Team

8.0

145

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A.J. EwingCF	.277	5	1	1	0	0	0	2
J. SotoLF	.297	2	2	1	1	1	2	1
B. Bichette3B	.256	3	0	0	1	0	0	0
C. BengeRF	.269	3	2	2	1	0	1	0
F. AlvarezC	.252	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
J. Young1B	.235	4	0	2	1	0	0	0
M. Vientos1B	.211	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Baty3B	.219	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
L. TorrensC	.214	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
T. TaylorLF	.219	3	1	2	1	1	0	0
F. LindorSS	.211	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	7	10	6	2	4	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. ManaeaRP	7.0	6	3	2	1	6	97
H. BrazobanRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	11
D. WilliamsRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	17
Team	9.0	7	3	2	1	9	125

Team

NYM

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

NYM vs KC.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

NYM vs KC.

3 sub-models, blended.