Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ATH at DET?

The model favors ATH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Athletics vs Detroit Tigers: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 7, 2026

FINAL+4DET

ATH

41-50

DET

41-50

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan

28,736 attended

Line movement

35 snapshots

DET spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

DET no-vig %

66.7%

open 66.7%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = DET favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.5%

ensemble · DET favored

Elo Static
55.1%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
55.9%
P(DET win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
56.5%
P(DET win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.58 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+187

Close price

+187

Open no-vig

33.3%

Close no-vig

33.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ATH at DET?: The model favors ATH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Player projections

DET vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gage JumpATH
5.7± 3.2low
Troy MeltonDET
5.6± 3.1low
Casey MizeDET
5.1± 2.4medium

Hits

Kevin McGonigleDET
1.3± 1.3high
Eduardo ValenciaDET
1.2± 1.8low
Tommy WhiteATH
1.1± 2.0low

Total bases

Eduardo ValenciaDET
2.5± 4.3low
Kevin McGonigleDET
1.9± 2.0high
Jonah HeimATH
1.7± 2.1high

RBIs

Dillon DinglerDET
0.7± 1.3high
Eduardo ValenciaDET
0.7± 1.7low
Hao-Yu LeeDET
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Jeffrey SpringsATH
4.0± 1.6high
Jack PerkinsATH
3.1± 1.7high
Framber ValdezDET
2.6± 2.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATH

league avg

DET

.724

OPS

.720

.725

.321

OBP

◀

.318

.316

4.39

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.45

5.37

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.62

1.49

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.22

8.6

K / 9

◀

8.5

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

ATH 2 · DET 6 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked DET +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ATH	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	2
DET	2	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. Gelof3B	.281	5	0	1	0	0	0	4
N. Kurtz1B	.271	5	0	0	0	0	0	2
S. LangeliersC	.264	3	0	1	1	0	1	2
J. HeimC	.248	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. WilsonSS	.272	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. ThomasRF	.222	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. Kuroda-Grauer3B	.462	4	0	3	0	0	0	0
M. Muncy3B	.227	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
H. BolteCF	.286	3	2	1	1	1	0	0
L. ButlerRF	.200	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	2	7	2	1	2	12

Player

.281

.271

.264

.248

.272

.222

.462

.227

.286

.200

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J.T. GinnSP	4.0	2	2	2	2	4	61
J. LopezSP	3.0	5	4	4	1	4	63
E. AlvaradoRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	3	23
Team	8.0	8	6	6	4	11	147

Player

J.T. GinnSP

4.0

J. LopezSP

3.0

E. AlvaradoRP

1.0

Team

8.0

147

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. McGonigleSS	.287	4	1	2	1	0	1	1
C. Keith3B	.252	2	1	1	2	1	1	0
R. GreeneLF	.289	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. DinglerC	.262	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
K. CarpenterRF	.231	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
Z. McKinstry2B	.203	3	1	2	0	0	1	0
S. Torkelson1B	.214	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
J. OutmanCF	.157	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. VierlingCF	.203	4	1	1	2	0	0	1
H. Lee2B	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. MalgeriRF	.313	1	1	1	1	0	1	0
Team		32	6	8	6	1	4	11

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. SkubalSP	5.0	5	1	1	2	9	96
K. FinneganRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	10
D. AndersonRP	1.0	1	1	0	0	2	29
J. WaguespackRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	1	23
Team	9.0	7	2	1	2	12	158

Team

ATH

DET

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

DET vs ATH.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

DET vs ATH.

3 sub-models, blended.