MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

Higashioka homered to left (428 feet). → win prob 23→36% TEX

BOT 6TH+1CLE

CLE

36-28

TEX

30-32

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 975 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

MLB · At bat

Bottom 60-00 outs

Pitcher· CLE

P. Messick

5.0 IP, 4 K, 1 ER

Batter· TEX

M. Helman

0-1

Live · model leanBot 6thPolls every 30s

59.5%

CLE wins · current

Pre-game: 58.9% CLE

CLE 2 · 1 TEX

CLE +1

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 6

away leadsTEX leads

Key moments · live

newest first

ClutchTEXBottom 6th Inning · 2-1
+13pp→ 36% WP
Higashioka · homered to left (428 feet).
SwingCLETop 5th Inning · 2-0
+8pp→ 85% WP
Bazzana · tripled to right.
SwingCLETop 4th Inning · 2-0
+10pp→ 76% WP
Hedges · singled to center, Kwan scored.

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 5.75

P. Messick

6-1 · 2.21 ERA

K. Rocker

2-5 · 3.54 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

TEX spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

TEX no-vig %

44.7%

open 43.7% · +1.0

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TEX favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

41.1%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
48.0%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
46.4%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
48.6%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.93 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

15.8%

-32.2ppvs pre-game · CLE favored

Leverage

±6.8

pp · next play

medium · 44/100

1-point game · home ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.01

CLV pp

Open price

+119

Close price

+114

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

44.7%

Market came to the model

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+5.6pp

best edge · CLE · DraftKings

CLE

★ best

-126DraftKings

edge +5.6pp · implied 53.3%

TEX

no live price

Book	CLE	TEX	Best edge
DraftKings	-126★	+105	+5.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

TEX vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
7.0± 3.6low
Jacob deGromTEX
6.5± 3.7low
Parker MessickCLE
6.2± 2.4low

Hits

Josh JungTEX
1.2± 0.9high
Jose RamirezCLE
1.1± 1.0high
Travis BazzanaCLE
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Joc PedersonTEX
2.3± 2.9high
Jose RamirezCLE
1.9± 2.2high
Travis BazzanaCLE
1.9± 2.0high

RBIs

Joc PedersonTEX
0.9± 1.0high
Jose RamirezCLE
0.7± 0.8high
Ezequiel DuranTEX
0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

Tanner BibeeCLE
2.9± 3.6low
Slade CecconiCLE
2.8± 2.5low
Jack LeiterTEX
2.8± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelEdge

● Live

CLE★

Guardians

41-33

vs58.9%CLE

TEX

Rangers

33-35

CLE 58.9%win prob41.1% TEX

CLE 1535 · TEX 1497Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
T. Bazzana★2B	3-3	3	1	3	1	1	0	0	2.3
SPRINT27.662
J. Ramirez★3B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	5.1
SPRINT27.251
C. DeLauter★RF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	9.1
SPRINT26.941
K. Manzardo★1B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	3.7
R. Hoskins★1B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	1	1	1.8
D. Schneemann★CF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	4.5
S. Kwan★CF	2-3	3	1	2	0	0	0	0	12.2
SPRINT26.530
A. Hedges★C	1-2	2	0	1	1	0	0	1	4.8
SPRINT24.43
B. Rocchio★SS	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1.0
Team	6-24	24	2	6	2	1	1	7	—

Batting

Analytics

Player

T. Bazzana★2B

3-3

2.3

J. Ramirez★3B

0-3

5.1

C. DeLauter★RF

0-3

9.1

K. Manzardo★1B

0-3

3.7

R. Hoskins★1B

0-2

1.8

D. Schneemann★CF

0-3

4.5

S. Kwan★CF

2-3

12.2

A. Hedges★C

1-2

4.8

B. Rocchio★SS

0-2

1.0

Team

6-24

—

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Pitching	Analytics
P. Messick★SP	5.0	2	1	1	0	4	1	4.3
Team	5.0	2	1	1	0	4	1	—

Pitching

Analytics

Player

P. Messick★SP

5.0

4.3

Team

5.0

—

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
W. Langford★LF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	4.1
SPRINT2872
C. Seager★SS	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2.3
SPRINT24.96
J. Jung★3B	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	1.4
SPRINT25.920
B. Nimmo★RF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	1.4
SPRINT28.278
E. Duran★2B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1.0
J. Foscue★2B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	1.7
J. Burger★1B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	1.9
K. Higashioka★C	1-2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	12.5
SPRINT23.91
M. Helman★CF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0
Team	2-17	17	1	2	1	1	0	4	—

Batting

Analytics

Player