Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CON at CHI?

The model favors CON, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+5CHI

CON

2-10

8085

CHI

4-6

WNBAFri, Jun 5FinalSeriesCHI leads series 2-1VegasCHI -6.5

CON · top performer

Brittney Griner

C · #42

17.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CHI · top performer

Skylar Diggins

G · #4

17.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCON ↔ CHI

Biggest swing: 22pp · 4th Quarter · 1:03

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. MillerF · #1	28	16	6-15	1-5	3-3	-4	3	3
A. MorrowF · #24	32	8	3-14	2-5	—	-8	17	3
B. GrinerC · #42	29	16	6-8	—	4-6	-8	8	5
S. RiversG · #22	23	14	6-9	1-2	1-2	-3	1	3
L. LacanG · #47	34	3	1-8	0-3	1-2	-5	1	2
Bench
R. BeersF · #15	6	5	2-3	—	1-1	+3	4	2
N. AnglomaF · #33	17	6	2-4	—	2-2	+9	1	0
O. Nelson-OdodaC · #10	10	2	1-3	—	—	+3	3	0
H. Van LithG · #2	6	4	1-1	—	2-2	-11	1	0
C. Leger-WalkerG · #4	8	4	2-4	0-2	—	+8	0	1
G. KneepkensG · #5	8	2	0-1	—	2-3	-6	0	0
A. JacksonG · #3	1	0	0-1	0-1	—	-3	1	0
Team		80	30-71	4-18	16-21		40	19
DNP: A. Edwards, K. Burke

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. StevensF · #30	20	13	5-13	1-5	2-3	+4	10	1
K. CardosoC · #10	33	10	5-10	—	0-1	+9	8	3
S. DigginsG · #4	32	24	6-16	2-3	10-11	+10	3	4
R. BanhamG · #24	22	6	2-7	1-5	1-1	+4	2	3
J. SheldonG · #0	27	5	2-2	—	1-1	+14	1	2
Bench
E. WilliamsC · #1	21	10	5-8	—	0-2	-2	3	3
N. CloudG · #9	26	13	4-6	2-2	3-3	+5	0	5
S. PoffenbargerG · #6	6	0	—	—	—	-2	0	0
S. TaylorG · #12	13	4	2-5	0-1	—	-17	1	0
Team		85	31-67	6-16	17-22		28	21
DNP: R. Jackson, C. Vandersloot, D. Carrington, G. Jaquez

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CON

Away

Stat

CHI

Home

30-71

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

31-67

FG %

4-18

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

6-16

16-21

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

17-22

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

CHI leads series 2-1

Jun 5

CON80@

CHI85today

Jun 22

CHI63@

CON92

Jul 31

CON88@

CHI94

Aug 25

CHI@

CONupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHI -6.5

Half-pt below key 7

1.0pt· 6.2h

Total

164.5

Standard · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CON+21532%

CHI-26573%

60· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHI -6.5↗SpreadBet CHI -6.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

6.5

-1.0 since open

Total

164.5

+2.0 since open

How it ended

CHI beat CON 85-80. S. Diggins led with 24 PTS, 3 REB, 4 AST. CON outscored the other side 25-11 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CHI vs CON

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CONstarters 71% of pts

Starters(5)

57 PTS · 30 REB · 16 AST

GS 40

Bench(7)

23 PTS · 10 REB · 3 AST

GS 19

CHIstarters 68% of pts

Starters(5)

58 PTS · 24 REB · 13 AST

GS 47

Bench(4)

27 PTS · 4 REB · 8 AST

GS 20

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CON4th Quarter · 9:43 · 63-65

+11pp→ 37% WP

Azura Stevens · shooting foul

CON4th Quarter · 1:12 · 76-80

+19pp→ 30% WP

Kamilla Cardoso · personal foul

CON4th Quarter · 48.9 · 79-82

+13pp→ 23% WP

Elizabeth Williams · makes driving layup

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CON	25	20	16	19	80
CHI	11	32	22	20	85

Period scoring

CON won 1 · CHI won 3

Miller 14

Stevens 7

Morrow 6

Diggins 16

Griner 5

Cloud 10

Griner 6

Taylor 4

CON

CHI

Shooting comparison

CON

CHI

42%

30-71

46%

31-67

22%

4-18

3PT

38%

6-16

76%

16-21

77%

17-22

Play-by-play · 424 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CON 80·CHI 85
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CON 80·CHI 85
Q4·2.8
Elizabeth Williams defensive rebound
CON 80·CHI 85
Q4·4.8
Charlisse Leger-Walker misses 29-foot three point jumper
CON 80·CHI 85
+1pp
Q4·7.8
Sun timeout
CON 80·CHI 85
Q4·7.8
Skylar Diggins makes free throw 2 of 2
CON 80·CHI 85
Q4·7.8
Sky offensive team rebound
CON 80·CHI 84
−1pp
Q4·7.8
Skylar Diggins misses free throw 1 of 2
CON 80·CHI 84
−0.5pp
Q4·7.8
Elizabeth Williams enters the game for Rachel Banham
·
CON 80·CHI 84
Q4·7.8
Charlisse Leger-Walker enters the game for Leila Lacan
·
CON 80·CHI 84
Q4·7.8
Leila Lacan personal foul
CON 80·CHI 84
+2pp
Q4·11.0
Rachel Banham enters the game for Elizabeth Williams
·
CON 80·CHI 84
Q4·11.0
Sky Full timeout
CON 80·CHI 84
Q4·11.0
Saniya Rivers makes free throw 2 of 2
CON 80·CHI 84
Q4·11.0
Sun offensive team rebound
CON 79·CHI 84
+3pp
Q4·11.0
Saniya Rivers misses free throw 1 of 2
CON 79·CHI 84
−4pp
Q4·11.0
(00:11) [Sun] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)BIG MOMENT
CON 79·CHI 84
+8pp
Q4·11.0
Natasha Cloud loose ball foulBIG MOMENT
CON 79·CHI 84
−6pp
Q4·14.5
Sun Full timeout
CON 79·CHI 84
Q4·14.5
Elizabeth Williams makes 6-foot driving floating jump shotBIG MOMENT
CON 79·CHI 84
+8pp
Q4·39.0
Sky timeout
CON 79·CHI 82
Q4·39.0
Sky defensive team rebound
CON 79·CHI 82
+3pp
Q4·42.8
Diamond Miller misses 24-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
CON 79·CHI 82
+8pp
Q4·48.9
Sun Full timeout
CON 79·CHI 82
Q4·48.9
Elizabeth Williams makes driving layupBIG MOMENT
CON 79·CHI 82
−13pp
Q4·1:03
Sky Full timeoutBIG MOMENT
CON 79·CHI 80
+23pp
Q4·1:04
Saniya Rivers makes 22-foot three point jumper (Diamond Miller assists)
·
CON 79·CHI 80
−2pp
Q4·1:12
Kamilla Cardoso personal foulBIG MOMENT
CON 76·CHI 80
−19pp
Q4·1:20
Skylar Diggins makes free throw 1 of 1
CON 76·CHI 80
−4pp
Q4·1:20
Leila Lacan shooting foulBIG MOMENT
CON 76·CHI 79
+13pp

Betting line

CHI -6.5·O/U 164.5·CON +215/CHI -265

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

hicago Sky held off Connecticut Sun, 85–80.

CON +6.5 cashed (CHI won by 5). Total cleared the 164.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

CON

CHI

eFG%

shooting

45.1%

50.7%

TOV%

ball control

15.7%

13.5%

OREB%

offensive glass

40.0%

21.2%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

22.5%

25.4%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Aneesah MorrowCON · F
DRB%.37599+
Skylar DigginsCHI · G
AST/TO2.792
Kamilla CardosoCHI · C
ORB%.10789
Saniya RiversCON · G
AST/TO2.179
Jacy SheldonCHI · G
TS%.61075

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.7%

ensemble · CHI favored

Elo Static
63.8%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
65.6%
P(CHI win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
68.1%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.76 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.37

CLV pp

Open price

+250

Close price

+245

Open no-vig

27.4%

Close no-vig

27.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CON at CHI?: The model favors CON, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+16.6pp

best edge · CHI · DraftKings

CON

no live price

CHI

★ best

+120DraftKings

edge +16.6pp · implied 42.8%

Book	CON	CHI	Best edge
DraftKings	-154	+120★	+16.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CHI vs CON.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

135

projections · 100 high confidence

Points

Rickea JacksonCHI
16.0± 11.0low
Sydney TaylorCHI
15.9± 6.3high
Kamilla CardosoCHI
15.8± 7.2high

Rebounds

Aneesah MorrowCON
8.1± 5.0high
Kamilla CardosoCHI
7.8± 3.0high
Azura StevensCHI
7.2± 2.9high

Assists

Natasha CloudCHI
5.2± 1.8high
Skylar DigginsCHI
4.9± 2.4high
Leila LacanCON
4.6± 1.5high

Blocks

Brittney GrinerCON
1.8± 1.0medium
Kamilla CardosoCHI
1.4± 1.2high
Rickea JacksonCHI
1.2± 1.6low

Steals

Leila LacanCON
2.0± 1.3high
Azura StevensCHI
1.3± 1.1high
Ashlon JacksonCON
1.3± 1.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Connecticut SunChicago Sky

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop