Aug 13, 25sim 69
1962
18(H)71
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+5CHI
CON
2-10
8085
CHI
4-6
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 384 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
hicago Sky held off Connecticut Sun, 85–80.
CON +6.5 cashed (CHI won by 5). Total cleared the 164.5 OVER by 0.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
CON · top performer
Brittney Griner
C · #42
17.6Game score
16
Pts
8
Reb
5
Ast
CHI · top performer
Skylar Diggins
G · #4
17.5Game score
24
Pts
3
Reb
4
Ast
WNBA · Connecticut Sun at Chicago Sky · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
CON2-10
8085
CHI4-6
CON2-10CHI4-6
CON
2-10
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||||
| 28 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | |
| 32 | 8 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -8 | |
DRB%.37199+ ORB%.13693 USG%.25476 | ||||||||
| 29 | 16 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -8 | |
| 23 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | |
AST/TO1.960 USG%.18929 ORB%.01712 | ||||||||
| 34 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | |
| 17 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +9 | |
| 10 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3 | |
| 8 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +8 | |
| 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -6 | |
| Team | 80 | 40 | 19 | 6 | 7 | 15 | ||
| DNP: A. Edwards, K. Burke | ||||||||
CHI
4-6
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||||
| 20 | 13 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | |
| 33 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +9 | |
| 32 | 24 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +10 | |
| 22 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +4 | |
| 27 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +14 | |
| 21 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | |
| 26 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +5 | |
| 13 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -17 | |
| Team | 85 | 28 | 21 | 9 | 7 | 12 | ||
| DNP: R. Jackson, C. Vandersloot, D. Carrington, G. Jaquez | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
42
FG %
46
19
Ast
21
Season series
CHI leads series 1-0
Jun 5CON80@CHI85today
CON80@CHI85todayJun 22CHI@CONupcoming
CHI@CONupcomingJul 31CON@CHIupcoming
CON@CHIupcomingAug 25CHI@CONupcoming
CHI@CONupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
CHI -6.5
Half-pt below key 7
1.0pt· 6.2h
Total
164.5
Standard · -0.5 vs avg
Moneyline
CON+21532%CHI-26573%60· 6.2h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
6.5
-1.0 since open
Total
164.5
+2.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Game flowCON ↔ CHI
Biggest swing: 22pp · 4th Quarter · 1:03
CONB. Griner
CGame leader · 29 min
16 PTS · 8 REB · 5 AST
CHIS. Diggins
GGame leader · 32 min
24 PTS · 3 REB · 4 AST
How it ended
CHI beat CON 85-80. S. Diggins led with 24 PTS, 3 REB, 4 AST. CON outscored the other side 25-11 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
CHI vs CON
Starters vs bench
production by unitCONstarters 71% of ptsStarters(5)
57 PTS · 30 REB · 16 AST
GS 40
Bench(7)
23 PTS · 10 REB · 3 AST
GS 19
CHIstarters 68% of ptsStarters(5)
58 PTS · 24 REB · 13 AST
GS 47
Bench(4)
27 PTS · 4 REB · 8 AST
GS 20
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactCON4th Quarter · 9:43 · 63-65
+11pp→ 37% WP
Azura Stevens · shooting foul
CON4th Quarter · 1:12 · 76-80
+19pp→ 30% WP
Kamilla Cardoso · personal foul
CON4th Quarter · 48.9 · 79-82
+13pp→ 23% WP
Elizabeth Williams · makes driving layup
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 25 | 20 | 16 | 19 | 80 |
| CHI | 11 | 32 | 22 | 20 | 85 |
Period scoring
CON won 1 · CHI won 3
25
11
Q1
Miller 14
Stevens 7
20
32
Q2
Morrow 6
Diggins 16
16
22
Q3
Griner 5
Cloud 10
19
20
Q4
Griner 6
Taylor 4
CON
CHI
Shooting comparison
CON
CHI
42%
30-71
FG
46%
31-67
22%
4-18
3PT
38%
6-16
76%
16-21
FT
77%
17-22
Play-by-play · 424 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
CON 80·CHI 85
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CON 80·CHI 85
- Q4·2.8
Elizabeth Williams defensive rebound
CON 80·CHI 85
- Q4·4.8
Charlisse Leger-Walker misses 29-foot three point jumper
CON 80·CHI 85
+1pp
- Q4·7.8
Sun timeout
CON 80·CHI 85
- Q4·7.8
Skylar Diggins makes free throw 2 of 2
CON 80·CHI 85
- Q4·7.8
Sky offensive team rebound
CON 80·CHI 84
−1pp
- Q4·7.8
Skylar Diggins misses free throw 1 of 2
CON 80·CHI 84
−0.5pp
- Q4·7.8
Elizabeth Williams enters the game for Rachel Banham
·
CON 80·CHI 84
- Q4·7.8
Charlisse Leger-Walker enters the game for Leila Lacan
·
CON 80·CHI 84
- Q4·7.8
Leila Lacan personal foul
CON 80·CHI 84
+2pp
- Q4·11.0
Rachel Banham enters the game for Elizabeth Williams
·
CON 80·CHI 84
- Q4·11.0
Sky Full timeout
CON 80·CHI 84
- Q4·11.0
Saniya Rivers makes free throw 2 of 2
CON 80·CHI 84
- Q4·11.0
Sun offensive team rebound
CON 79·CHI 84
+3pp
- Q4·11.0
Saniya Rivers misses free throw 1 of 2
CON 79·CHI 84
−4pp
- Q4·11.0
(00:11) [Sun] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)BIG MOMENT
CON 79·CHI 84
+8pp
- Q4·11.0
Natasha Cloud loose ball foulBIG MOMENT
CON 79·CHI 84
−6pp
- Q4·14.5
Sun Full timeout
CON 79·CHI 84
- Q4·14.5
Elizabeth Williams makes 6-foot driving floating jump shotBIG MOMENT
CON 79·CHI 84
+8pp
- Q4·39.0
Sky timeout
CON 79·CHI 82
- Q4·39.0
Sky defensive team rebound
CON 79·CHI 82
+3pp
- Q4·42.8
Diamond Miller misses 24-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
CON 79·CHI 82
+8pp
- Q4·48.9
Sun Full timeout
CON 79·CHI 82
- Q4·48.9
Elizabeth Williams makes driving layupBIG MOMENT
CON 79·CHI 82
−13pp
- Q4·1:03
Sky Full timeoutBIG MOMENT
CON 76·CHI 80
+23pp
- Q4·1:04
Saniya Rivers makes 22-foot three point jumper (Diamond Miller assists)
·
CON 79·CHI 80
−2pp
- Q4·1:12
Kamilla Cardoso personal foulBIG MOMENT
CON 76·CHI 80
−19pp
- Q4·1:20
Skylar Diggins makes free throw 1 of 1
CON 76·CHI 80
−4pp
- Q4·1:20
Leila Lacan shooting foulBIG MOMENT
CON 76·CHI 79
+13pp
Team stats
CON
Away
Stat
CHI
Home
30-71
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
31-67
42
FG %
46
4-18
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
6-16
16-21
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
17-22
19
Assists
21
15
Turnovers
12
Betting line
CHI -6.5·O/U 164.5·CON +215/CHI -265
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 16 players in cohort
Aneesah MorrowCON · FDRB%.37199+
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
53.5%
ensemble · CHI favored
Elo Static
62.7%
P(CHI win)
31%
weight
Elo Recent
63.1%
P(CHI win)
35%
weight
Pace Efficiency
66.4%
P(CHI win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.66 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
89% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
+0.37
CLV pp
Open price
+250
Close price
+245
Open no-vig
27.4%
Close no-vig
27.8%
Line barely moved
Line shopping · 1 book
Where to bet this game.
Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.
+9.5pp
best edge · CHI · DraftKings
CON
no live price
CHI
★ best+120DraftKings
edge +9.5pp · implied 42.8%
| Book | CON | CHI | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -154 | +120★ | +9.5 |
Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.
Player projections
CHI vs CON.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
125
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Rickea JacksonCHI16.0± 11.0low
- Skylar DigginsCHI14.4± 9.9low
- Aneesah MorrowCON12.7± 7.2low
Rebounds
- Aneesah MorrowCON10.4± 5.2low
- Kamilla CardosoCHI9.4± 4.3low
- Elizabeth WilliamsCHI5.0± 3.4low
Assists
- Skylar DigginsCHI4.8± 3.2low
- Natasha CloudCHI4.3± 4.4low
- Saniya RiversCON3.4± 2.8low
Blocks
- Kamilla CardosoCHI1.7± 2.4low
- Brittney GrinerCON1.3± 1.7low
- Rickea JacksonCHI1.2± 1.6low
Steals
- Ashlon JacksonCON1.6± 1.5low
- Aicha CoulibalyCHI1.3± 1.2low
- Kennedy BurkeCON1.2± 1.7low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
CON
league avg
CHI
41.4%
FG%
44.3
41.4%
25.9%
3PT %
32.9
▶27.2%
75.5
PPG
84.8
▶81.6
17.8
Assists / G
18.0
▶19.2
14.8
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶11.8