HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 8
  • MLBBot 5
    CIN 3@STL 4
    +32.2ppmedium
  • MLBBot 6
    CLE 2@TEX 3
    +40.1ppmedium
  • MLBMid 2
    NYM 1@SD 0
    -33.6ppmedium
  • MLBBot 2
    KC 2@MIN 0
    -33.0ppmedium
  • MLBBot 4
    MIL 1@COL 3
    +62.5ppmedium
  • MLBTop 2
    WSH 2@ARI 0
    -46.9pplow
  • MLBBot 6
    ATH 1@HOU 5
    +42.0pplow
  • NBAHalftime
    NY 56@SA 52
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+10BAL
BAL

BAL

31-33

13
3
TOR

TOR

30-34

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario

Line movement

200 snapshots

TOR spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

TOR no-vig %

58.3%

open 58.3%

-1.0-2.0TOR SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL62.3%54.3%TOR NO-VIG %Jun 4, 10 PMJun 5, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TOR favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

BAL 13 · TOR 3 (by 10)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TOR +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BAL10000503413
TOR1000200003

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

53%Last 7 · 54-47
60%Last 30 · 308-205
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

BAL

no live price

TOR

no live price

BookBALTORBest edge
DraftKings+108-140+0.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Fri, Jun 5·Final/SeriesBAL leads series 1-0/VegasTOR -154

Recap · MLB

Baltimore Orioles went into Toronto Blue Jays and beat them, 13–3. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

BAL +1.5 cashed (TOR lost outright). Total cleared the 8.5 OVER by 7.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1T. YesavageTOR−70.4pp
  2. 2A. RutschmanBAL+48.7pp
  3. 3J. JacksonBAL+42.4pp

BAL · top performer

BAL
Adley Rutschman

Adley Rutschman

C

2.750OPS

4-4

AB-H

4

R

5

RBI

TOR · top performer

TOR
Brandon Valenzuela

Brandon Valenzuela

C

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BAL31-33
13
3
TOR30-34
BAL31-33·TOR30-34
BAL

BAL

31-33

13
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
T. WardT. Ward★LF
1-551100036.5
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
1-4421001223.7
SPRINT28.175
A. RutschmanA. Rutschman★C
4-4444511048.7
SPRINT26.632
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
1-441100115.3
S. BasalloS. Basallo★C
0-220000000.7
C. MayoC. Mayo★3B
1-5521210123.3
SPRINT2872
C. CowserC. Cowser★RF
2-550210000.4
SPRINT28.175
L. TaverasL. Taveras★CF
0-440010102.0
J. HollidayJ. Holliday★2B
1-5511000230.5
J. JacksonJ. Jackson2B
2-3322200042.4
SPRINT26.530
Team13-4141131311249—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
B. YoungB. Young★SP
6.173304114.5
G. WolframG. WolframRP
0.20000002.6
Y. CanoY. CanoRP
1.00000000.5
A. NunezA. NunezRP
1.01000100.1
Team9.0833051—
TOR

TOR

30-34

3
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
G. SpringerG. Springer★DH
2-331200006.9
SPRINT25.920
N. LukesN. Lukes★RF
0-440000019.4
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
0-330010001.5
SPRINT26.123
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
0-110000000.0
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
0-440000025.5
J. SanchezJ. Sanchez★RF
1-440100001.5
K. OkamotoK. Okamoto★3B
2-4412000122.7
SPRINT26.123
A. GimenezA. Gimenez★SS
1-330100013.3
B. ValenzuelaB. Valenzuela★C
1-3311210019.1
SPRINT24.64
Y. PinangoY. PinangoLF
1-330100003.8
SPRINT2622
Team8-3232383105—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
T. YesavageT. Yesavage★SP
5.256625270.4
A. MackoA. MackoRP
1.10001300.8
C. SeaboldC. SeaboldRP
1.04330006.5
Y. RodriguezY. RodriguezRP
0.24421100.1
T. HeinemanT. HeinemanC
0.10000000.0
SPRINT25.513
Team9.0131311492—

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BAL

  • B. Young
    85 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      28%·94.6 mph·15% whiff
    • SL
      21%·84.7 mph·31% whiff
    • FS
      20%·83.0 mph·8% whiff
    • CU
      15%·75.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      15%·93.9 mph·14% whiff
  • A. Nunez
    20 pitches·40% CSW
    • ST
      40%·85.8 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      25%·95.6 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      15%·89.5 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      10%·90.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      10%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. Cano
    16 pitches·19% CSW
    • SI
      56%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      38%·86.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      6%·92.1 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Wolfram
    6 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      50%·96.5 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      33%·93.5 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      17%·84.7 mph·0% whiff

TOR

  • T. Yesavage
    91 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      38%·94.6 mph·6% whiff
    • FS
      34%·84.0 mph·46% whiff
    • SL
      27%·88.5 mph·38% whiff
  • A. Macko
    30 pitches·33% CSW
    • SL
      50%·85.3 mph·63% whiff
    • FF
      30%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      10%·87.0 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      10%·79.7 mph·— whiff
  • Y. Rodriguez
    27 pitches·19% CSW
    • SL
      37%·86.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      26%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      19%·95.7 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      19%·88.2 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Seabold
    26 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      38%·93.3 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      35%·82.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      27%·83.3 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Heineman
    1 pitches·0% CSW
    • EP
      100%·49.4 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

13

Hits

8

13

Runs

3

1

Errors

1

Current series

BAL leads series 1-0

Jun 5BALBAL13@TORTOR3today
Jun 6BALBAL@TORTORupcoming
Jun 7BALBAL@TORTORupcoming

Season series

BAL leads series 3-2

May 28TORTOR2@BALBAL1
May 29TORTOR6@BALBAL5
May 30TORTOR5@BALBAL6
May 31TORTOR5@BALBAL9
Jun 5BALBAL13@TORTOR3today
Jun 6BALBAL@TORTORupcoming
Jun 7BALBAL@TORTORupcoming
Sep 11BALBAL@TORTORupcoming
Sep 12BALBAL@TORTORupcoming
Sep 13BALBAL@TORTORupcoming
Sep 21TORTOR@BALBALupcoming
Sep 22TORTOR@BALBALupcoming
Sep 23TORTOR@BALBALupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BALBAL+12844%
TORTOR-15461%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBAL ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 24pp · Top 6th Inning

BALBAL
A. Rutschman

A. Rutschman

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

4-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.750 OPS

B. Young

B. Young

SP

Starting pitcher

6.1 IP · 4 K · 3 ER · 7 H

TORTOR
B. Valenzuela

B. Valenzuela

C

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

T. Yesavage

T. Yesavage

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 5 K · 6 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

How it ended

BAL beat TOR 13-3. Mayo's play in the top 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (24pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

TOR vs BAL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TORBottom 5th Inning · 1-3
+22pp→ 84% WP

Valenzuela · homered to right center (417 feet), Okamoto scored.

BALTop 6th Inning · 3-3
+24pp→ 49% WP

Rutschman · doubled to center, Henderson scored and Holliday scored.

BALTop 6th Inning · 6-3
+24pp→ 83% WP

Mayo · homered to left (396 feet), Jackson scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BAL10000503413
TOR1000200003

Period scoring

BAL won 3 · TOR won 1

1
1

Inn 1

Rutschman 1

Jr. 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
2

Inn 5

Valenzuela 2

5
0

Inn 6

Rutschman 2

0
0

Inn 7

3
0

Inn 8

Jackson 1

4
0

Inn 9

Rutschman 2

BAL
TOR

Play-by-play · 595 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    BAL 13·TOR 3

  2. B9

    · ·

    BAL 13·TOR 3

  3. B9

    Okamoto struck out swinging.

    · ·

    BAL 13·TOR 3

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 13·TOR 3

  5. B9

    Pinango to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    BAL 13·TOR 3

  6. B9

    Pinango to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    BAL 13·TOR 3

  7. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BAL 13·TOR 3

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 13·TOR 3

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    BAL 13·TOR 3

  10. B9

    Anthony Nunez pitches to Kazuma Okamoto

    · ·

    BAL 13·TOR 3

  11. B9

    · ·

    BAL 13·TOR 3

  12. B9

    Sánchez flied out to center.

    · ·

    BAL 13·TOR 3

  13. B9

    Pitch 8 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BAL 13·TOR 3

  14. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BAL 13·TOR 3

  15. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BAL 13·TOR 3

  16. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    · ·

    BAL 13·TOR 3

  17. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BAL 13·TOR 3

  18. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BAL 13·TOR 3

  19. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    BAL 13·TOR 3

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    BAL 13·TOR 3

  21. B9

    Anthony Nunez pitches to Jesus Sanchez

    · ·

    BAL 13·TOR 3

  22. B9

    · ·

    BAL 13·TOR 3

  23. B9

    Clement fouled out to first.

    · ·

    BAL 13·TOR 3

  24. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BAL 13·TOR 3

  25. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    BAL 13·TOR 3

  26. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    BAL 13·TOR 3

  27. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    BAL 13·TOR 3

  28. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BAL 13·TOR 3

  29. B9

    Anthony Nunez pitches to Ernie Clement

    · ·

    BAL 13·TOR 3

  30. B9

    ·

    BAL 13·TOR 3

Team stats

BAL

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

13

Runs

3

13

Hits

8

1

Errors

1

22

TB

12

2

HR

1

4

BB

0

9

K

5

18

LOB

9

Betting line

TOR -1.5·O/U 8.5·BAL +128/TOR -154

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+129

Close price

+129

Open no-vig

41.7%

Close no-vig

41.7%

Line barely moved

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 17 players in cohort
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Coby MayoBAL · 3B
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

TOR vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 89 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Trey YesavageTOR
    5.6± 2.2low
  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.5± 3.1low
  • Shane BazBAL
    5.3± 2.1low

Hits

  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.4± 0.8high
  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.3± 0.7high
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR
    1.3± 1.4high

Total bases

  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 1.5high
  • Charles McAdooTOR
    2.0± 2.3low
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    1.9± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Charles McAdooTOR
    1.0± 1.4low
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL
    0.7± 1.9high
  • Samuel BasalloBAL
    0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.5low
  • Simeon Woods RichardsonTOR
    3.6± 3.0low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.9± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.8%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    54.8%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    56.2%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    55.0%

    P(TOR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.61 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 976 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 5, 26sim 96
    19
    28(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jun 4, 26sim 96
    78
    9(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 16, 26sim 95
    13
    20(H)13
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 19, 26sim 95
    216
    20(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 30, 26sim 94
    1811
    1(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 29, 26sim 93
    287
    21(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs