Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NY at SA?

The model favors NY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1NY

53-29

105104

62-20

NBAFri, Jun 5FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasSA -6.5

NY · top performer

Karl-Anthony Towns

C · #32

21.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

SA · top performer

Victor Wembanyama

F · #1

22.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowNY ↔ SA

Biggest swing: 28pp · 4th Quarter · 2.0

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. AnunobyF · #8	37	17	5-10	2-5	5-5	-9	4	3
K. TownsC · #32	34	21	8-12	3-5	2-2	+11	13	4
J. HartG · #3	18	0	0-4	0-2	—	-3	6	4
M. BridgesG · #25	41	20	8-13	4-6	—	+7	6	6
J. BrunsonG · #11	38	20	7-25	2-8	4-5	-10	5	6
Bench
M. RobinsonC · #23	14	7	2-2	—	3-6	-10	3	0
L. ShametG · #44	30	13	5-12	3-7	—	+9	2	2
J. AlvaradoG · #5	10	2	0-4	0-2	2-3	+11	3	2
M. McBrideG · #2	18	5	2-7	1-3	—	-1	2	2
Team		105	37-89	15-38	16-21		44	29
DNP: J. Sochan, P. Dadiet, M. Diawara, A. Hukporti, J. Clarkson, T. Kolek

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ChampagnieF · #30	36	8	2-6	2-5	2-2	-8	4	1
V. WembanyamaF · #1	40	29	11-21	2-6	5-8	+6	9	2
D. FoxG · #4	34	20	8-12	2-2	2-2	+2	3	5
D. VassellG · #24	38	14	4-9	3-7	3-3	+6	9	5
S. CastleG · #5	28	14	5-14	2-4	2-4	-6	4	4
Bench
H. BarnesF · #40	5	0	—	—	—	-5	0	0
K. JohnsonF · #3	16	3	1-4	0-2	1-2	-5	4	2
C. BryantF · #11	3	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
L. KornetC · #7	8	1	—	—	1-2	-7	3	0
D. HarperG · #2	32	15	6-12	0-3	3-4	+12	6	3
Team		104	37-78	11-29	19-27		42	22
DNP: K. Olynyk, L. Waters III, B. Biyombo, M. Plumlee, J. McLaughlin

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

Home

37-89

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

37-78

FG %

15-38

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-29

16-21

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

19-27

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

NY leads series 2-0

Jun 4

NY105@

SA95

Jun 6

NY105@

SA104today

Jun 9

SA115@

NY111

Jun 11

SA106@

NY107

Jun 14

NY94@

SA90

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SA -6.5

Half-pt below key 7

1.0pt· 6.1h

Total

217.5

Defensive · -8.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NY+18535%

SA-22569%

7· 6.1h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SA -6.5↗SpreadBet SA -6.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

6.5

+1.0 since open

Total

217.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NY beat SA 105-104. K. Towns led with 21 PTS, 13 REB, 4 AST. NY outscored the other side 31-18 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

SA vs NY

Starters vs bench

production by unit

NYstarters 74% of pts

Starters(5)

78 PTS · 34 REB · 23 AST

GS 69

Bench(4)

27 PTS · 10 REB · 6 AST

GS 18

SAstarters 82% of pts

Starters(5)

85 PTS · 29 REB · 17 AST

GS 66

Bench(5)

19 PTS · 13 REB · 5 AST

GS 13

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

SA4th Quarter · 13.5 · 104-104

+27pp→ 53% WP

Jalen Brunson · misses 16-foot pullup jump shot

SA4th Quarter · 9.5 · 105-104

+26pp→ 44% WP

Jalen Brunson · misses free throw 2 of 2

NY4th Quarter · 2.0 · 105-104

+28pp→ 93% WP

Victor Wembanyama · misses 20-foot jumper

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
NY	25	31	28	21	105
SA	34	18	23	29	104

Period scoring

NY won 2 · SA won 2

Brunson 8

Fox 9

Towns 12

Harper 7

Bridges 9

Wembanyama 12

Brunson 7

Wembanyama 10

Shooting comparison

42%

37-89

47%

37-78

39%

15-38

3PT

38%

11-29

76%

16-21

70%

19-27

Play-by-play · 494 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
NY 105·SA 104
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th QuarterBIG MOMENT
NY 105·SA 104
−6pp
Q4·2.0
Knicks defensive team rebound
NY 105·SA 104
−0.9pp
Q4·2.0
Victor Wembanyama misses 20-foot jumperBIG MOMENT
NY 105·SA 104
−28pp
Q4·7.5
Mitchell Robinson enters the game for Jalen Brunson
·
NY 105·SA 104
Q4·7.5
Dylan Harper enters the game for Julian Champagnie
·
NY 105·SA 104
Q4·7.5
Spurs Full timeout
NY 105·SA 104
Q4·7.5
Luke Kornet defensive reboundBIG MOMENT
NY 105·SA 104
−9pp
Q4·9.5
Jalen Brunson misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
NY 105·SA 104
+26pp
Q4·9.5
Julian Champagnie enters the game for Dylan Harper
·
NY 105·SA 104
Q4·9.5
Josh Hart enters the game for Karl-Anthony Towns
·
NY 105·SA 104
Q4·9.5
Luke Kornet enters the game for De'Aaron Fox
·
NY 105·SA 104
Q4·9.5
Jalen Brunson makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 105·SA 104
−3pp
Q4·9.5
Victor Wembanyama personal foulBIG MOMENT
NY 104·SA 104
−24pp
Q4·9.5
Victor Wembanyama bad pass turnover (Jalen Brunson steals)BIG MOMENT
·
NY 104·SA 104
−10pp
Q4·11.8
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
NY 104·SA 104
+3pp
Q4·13.5
Jalen Brunson misses 16-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
NY 104·SA 104
+27pp
Q4·24.3
Stephon Castle personal foulBIG MOMENT
NY 104·SA 104
−24pp
Q4·30.3
Jalen Brunson enters the game for Mitchell Robinson
·
NY 104·SA 104
Q4·30.3
Karl-Anthony Towns enters the game for Josh Hart
·
NY 104·SA 104
Q4·30.3
Stephon Castle enters the game for Julian Champagnie
·
NY 104·SA 104
Q4·30.3
Knicks Full timeout
NY 104·SA 104
Q4·30.3
OG Anunoby defensive rebound
NY 104·SA 104
−1pp
Q4·30.3
Victor Wembanyama misses 16-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
NY 104·SA 104
−5pp
Q4·39.3
Landry Shamet enters the game for Karl-Anthony Towns
·
NY 104·SA 104
Q4·39.3
Mitchell Robinson enters the game for Jalen Brunson
·
NY 104·SA 104
Q4·39.3
Spurs Full timeout
NY 104·SA 104
Q4·39.3
Jalen Brunson makes 13-foot fade away jump shotBIG MOMENT
NY 104·SA 104
−16pp
Q4·57.3
Victor Wembanyama makes free throw 1 of 1
NY 102·SA 104
−4pp
Q4·57.3
Karl-Anthony Towns shooting foulBIG MOMENT
NY 102·SA 103
+25pp

Betting line

SA -6.5·O/U 217.5·NY +185/SA -225

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ew York Knicks went into San Antonio Spurs and beat them, 105–104. It came down to the final possession.

NY +6.5 cashed (SA lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 217.5 by 8.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Victor WembanyamaSA · F
CONT11.999+
Jalen BrunsonNY · G
TOUCHES89.699
Josh HartNY · G
DEFL4.198
De'Aaron FoxSA · G
DRIVES14.898
OG AnunobyNY · F
CONT8.496

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

27.6%

ensemble · NY favored

Elo Static
29.5%
P(SA win)
34%
weight
Elo Recent
27.4%
P(SA win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
25.8%
P(SA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.51 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+180

Close price

+180

Open no-vig

34.3%

Close no-vig

34.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NY at SA?: The model favors NY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+6.7pp

best edge · NY · DraftKings

★ best

-210DraftKings

edge +6.7pp · implied 63.8%

no live price

Book	NY	SA	Best edge
DraftKings	-210★	+160	+6.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

SA vs NY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

145

projections · 125 high confidence

Points

Jalen BrunsonNY
27.4± 9.6high
OG AnunobyNY
18.6± 7.0high
Tobias HarrisSA
16.3± 7.8high

Rebounds

Karl-Anthony TownsNY
10.8± 3.1high
Josh HartNY
8.4± 3.0high
Tobias HarrisSA
6.4± 1.8high

Assists

Jalen BrunsonNY
6.2± 3.2high
De'Aaron FoxSA
6.1± 1.3high
Stephon CastleSA
6.1± 1.7high

Blocks

OG AnunobyNY
1.0± 1.0high
Karl-Anthony TownsNY
0.9± 0.7high
Julian ChampagnieSA
0.6± 0.7high

Steals

Josh HartNY
1.5± 1.4high
OG AnunobyNY
1.5± 1.3high
De'Aaron FoxSA
1.4± 1.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

55.9%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

55.3%

48.0%

FG%

47.0

47.7%

116.4

PPG

114.9

▶

118.2

27.0

Assists / G

25.0

27.3

12.7

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

12.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR