NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

Luke Kornet defensive rebound → win prob 56→65% NY

7.5 - 4TH+1NY

53-29

105104

62-20

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 51 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Josh HartNY · G
DEFL4.197
Jalen BrunsonNY · G
TOUCHES89.694
OG AnunobyNY · F
CONT8.491
Karl-Anthony TownsNY · C
CONT7.685
De'Aaron FoxSA · G
DRIVES14.885

NBAFri, Jun 57.5 - 4thSeriestied 1-1VegasSA -6.5

Updated 0s ago

NY · top performer

Karl-Anthony Towns

C · #32

21.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

SA · top performer

Victor Wembanyama

F · #1

23.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NBA · Box score

7.5 - 4th

NY53-29

105

104

SA62-20

NY53-29SA62-20

53-29

105

box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Core		Rebounds	Playmaking	Defense		Discipline
Player
O. Anunoby30+ minutes, 0 turnovers★F · #8	36	17	4	3	2	2	0	-10
CONT8.491 DEFL3.185 DRIVES5.135
K. TownsDouble-double★C · #32	34	21	13	4	1	1	2	+11
CONT7.685 DRIVES6.147 TOUCHES50.830
J. Hart★G · #3	18	0	6	4	1	1	2	-3
M. Bridges★G · #25	40	20	6	6	1	0	1	+6
DEFL1.929 DRIVES3.818 CONT3.617
J. Brunson★G · #11	38	20	5	6	5	0	4	-10
TOUCHES89.694 DRIVES1688 DEFL1.618
M. RobinsonC · #23	14	7	3	0	1	1	1	-10
L. Shamet30+ minutes, 0 turnoversG · #44	30	13	2	2	0	1	0	+8
J. AlvaradoG · #5	10	2	3	2	0	0	0	+11
M. McBrideG · #2	18	5	2	2	0	0	2	-1
Team		105	44	29	11	6	12
DNP: J. Sochan, P. Dadiet, M. Diawara, A. Hukporti, J. Clarkson, T. Kolek

62-20

104

box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Core		Rebounds	Playmaking	Defense		Discipline
Player
J. Champagnie30+ minutes, 0 turnovers★F · #30	36	8	4	1	0	1	0	-8
V. Wembanyama★F · #1	40	29	9	2	2	4	4	+7
D. Fox★G · #4	34	20	3	5	1	1	4	+2
DRIVES14.885 DEFL379 TOUCHES65.164
D. Vassell30+ minutes, 0 turnovers★G · #24	37	14	9	5	0	1	0	+7
DEFL2.552 CONT4.130 DRIVES3.818
S. Castle★G · #5	27	14	4	4	1	0	4	-5
TOUCHES71.573 DRIVES12.371 CONT4.848
K. JohnsonF · #3	16	3	4	2	1	0	1	-5
L. KornetC · #7	8	1	3	0	1	0	0	-7
D. HarperG · #2	32	15	6	3	1	0	2	+12

Team		104	42	22	7	7	16
DNP: K. Olynyk, L. Waters III, B. Biyombo, M. Plumlee, J. McLaughlin

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Playoff series

NY leads series 1-0

Jun 4

NY105@

SA95

Jun 6

NY@

SAtoday

Jun 9

SA@

NYupcoming

Jun 11

SA@

NYupcoming

Jun 14

NY@

SAupcoming

Jun 17

SA@

NYupcoming

Jun 20

NY@

SAupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SA -6.5

Half-pt below key 7

1.0pt· 6.1h

Total

217.5

Defensive · -8.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NY+18535%

SA-22569%

7· 6.1h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SA -6.5↗SpreadBet SA -6.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

6.5

+1.0 since open

Total

217.5

0.0 since open

Live · top performers so far

7.5 - 4th

Game flowNY ↔ SA

Recent swing: 27pp · 4th Quarter · 13.5

Just happened

Spurs Full timeout

K. Towns

Leading · 7.5 - 4th · 34 min

21 PTS · 13 REB · 4 AST

On pace: 30 PTS · 18 REB · 6 AST

V. Wembanyama

Leading · 7.5 - 4th · 40 min

29 PTS · 9 REB · 2 AST

On pace: 35 PTS · 11 REB · 2 AST

How it's going

NY lead SA 105-104 (7.5 - 4th). K. Towns led with 21 PTS, 13 REB, 4 AST. NY have outscored the other side 31-18 in the 2nd quarter.

Win probability

SA vs NY

Starters vs bench

production by unit

NYstarters 74% of pts

Starters(5)

78 PTS · 34 REB · 23 AST

GS 69

Bench(4)

27 PTS · 10 REB · 6 AST

GS 18

SAstarters 82% of pts

Starters(5)

85 PTS · 29 REB · 17 AST

GS 66

Bench(5)

19 PTS · 13 REB · 5 AST

GS 13

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

SA4th Quarter · 57.3 · 102-103

+25pp→ 77% WP

Karl-Anthony Towns · shooting foul

SA4th Quarter · 13.5 · 104-104

+27pp→ 53% WP

Jalen Brunson · misses 16-foot pullup jump shot

SA4th Quarter · 9.5 · 105-104

+26pp→ 44% WP

Jalen Brunson · misses free throw 2 of 2

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
NY	25	31	28	21	105
SA	34	18	23	29	104

Period scoring

NY won 2 · SA won 2

Brunson 8

Fox 9

Towns 12

Harper 7

Bridges 9

Wembanyama 12

Brunson 7

Wembanyama 10

Shooting comparison

42%

37-89

48%

37-77

39%

15-38

3PT

38%

11-29

76%

16-21

70%

19-27

Play-by-play · 488 plays

period

event

player

Q4·7.5
Spurs Full timeout
NY 105·SA 104
Q4·7.5
Luke Kornet defensive reboundBIG MOMENT
NY 105·SA 104
−9pp
Q4·9.5
Jalen Brunson misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
NY 105·SA 104
+26pp
Q4·9.5
Julian Champagnie enters the game for Dylan Harper
·
NY 105·SA 104
Q4·9.5
Josh Hart enters the game for Karl-Anthony Towns
·
NY 105·SA 104
Q4·9.5
Luke Kornet enters the game for De'Aaron Fox
·
NY 105·SA 104
Q4·9.5
Jalen Brunson makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 105·SA 104
−3pp
Q4·9.5
Victor Wembanyama personal foulBIG MOMENT
NY 104·SA 104
−24pp
Q4·9.5
Victor Wembanyama bad pass turnover (Jalen Brunson steals)BIG MOMENT
·
NY 104·SA 104
−10pp
Q4·11.8
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
NY 104·SA 104
+3pp
Q4·13.5
Jalen Brunson misses 16-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
NY 104·SA 104
+27pp
Q4·24.3
Stephon Castle personal foulBIG MOMENT
NY 104·SA 104
−24pp
Q4·30.3
Jalen Brunson enters the game for Mitchell Robinson
·
NY 104·SA 104
Q4·30.3
Karl-Anthony Towns enters the game for Josh Hart
·
NY 104·SA 104
Q4·30.3
Stephon Castle enters the game for Julian Champagnie
·
NY 104·SA 104
Q4·30.3
Knicks Full timeout
NY 104·SA 104
Q4·30.3
OG Anunoby defensive rebound
NY 104·SA 104
−1pp
Q4·30.3
Victor Wembanyama misses 16-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
NY 104·SA 104
−5pp
Q4·39.3
Landry Shamet enters the game for Karl-Anthony Towns
·
NY 104·SA 104
Q4·39.3
Mitchell Robinson enters the game for Jalen Brunson
·
NY 104·SA 104
Q4·39.3
Spurs Full timeout
NY 104·SA 104
Q4·39.3
Jalen Brunson makes 13-foot fade away jump shotBIG MOMENT
NY 104·SA 104
−16pp
Q4·57.3
Victor Wembanyama makes free throw 1 of 1
NY 102·SA 104
−4pp
Q4·57.3
Karl-Anthony Towns shooting foulBIG MOMENT
NY 102·SA 103
+25pp
Q4·57.3
Victor Wembanyama makes layup (Dylan Harper assists)
·
NY 102·SA 103
+3pp
Q4·1:03
Mikal Bridges bad pass turnover (Dylan Harper steals)
·
NY 102·SA 101
+5pp
Q4·1:25
(01:25) [Knicks] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)
NY 102·SA 101
+5pp
Q4·1:25
Karl-Anthony Towns defensive goaltending violation
NY 102·SA 101
Q4·1:25
Dylan Harper makes running layup (Devin Vassell assists)BIG MOMENT
·
NY 102·SA 101
+9pp
Q4·1:27
Devin Vassell defensive rebound
NY 102·SA 99
+3pp

Team stats

Away

Stat

Home

37-89

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

37-77

FG %

15-38

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-29

16-21

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

19-27

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

SA -6.5·O/U 217.5·NY +185/SA -225

DraftKings · via ESPN

Live · model lean7.5 - 4thPolls every 30s

73.3%

NY wins · current

Pre-game: 93.0% NY

NY 105 · 104 SA

NY +1

Live momentum · cumulative diff

away leadsSA leads

Key moments · live

newest first

ClutchSA4th Quarter · 9.5 · 105-104
+26pp→ 44% WP
Jalen Brunson · misses free throw 2 of 2
SwingNY4th Quarter · 9.5 · 104-104
+24pp→ 78% WP
Victor Wembanyama · personal foul
Lead flipSA4th Quarter · 13.5 · 104-104
+27pp→ 53% WP
Jalen Brunson · misses 16-foot pullup jump shot
SwingSA4th Quarter · 57.3 · 102-103
+25pp→ 77% WP
Karl-Anthony Towns · shooting foul
SwingNY4th Quarter · 1:56 · 102-99
+18pp→ 69% WP
Jalen Brunson · makes 1-foot layup (Mikal Bridges assists)

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

6.0%

ensemble · NY favored

Elo Static
28.2%
P(SA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
25.5%
P(SA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
26.4%
P(SA win)
32%
weight

Disagreement

1.13 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+180

Close price

+180

Open no-vig

34.3%

Close no-vig

34.3%

Line barely moved

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+29.2pp

best edge · NY · DraftKings

★ best

-210DraftKings

edge +29.2pp · implied 63.8%

no live price

Book	NY	SA	Best edge
DraftKings	-210★	+160	+29.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

SA vs NY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

180

projections · 155 high confidence

Points

Jalen BrunsonNY
25.9± 8.0high
Victor WembanyamaSA
25.4± 6.7high
OG AnunobyNY
18.4± 4.8high

Rebounds

Victor WembanyamaSA
11.1± 6.4high
Karl-Anthony TownsNY
10.7± 3.3high
Josh HartNY
8.2± 3.2high

Assists

Stephon CastleSA
7.0± 2.1high
Jalen BrunsonNY
6.5± 3.3high
De'Aaron FoxSA
5.9± 1.8high

Blocks

Victor WembanyamaSA
2.9± 0.8high
Karl-Anthony TownsNY
0.9± 0.7high
OG AnunobyNY
0.8± 0.9high

Steals

Josh HartNY
1.8± 1.4high
OG AnunobyNY
1.6± 1.4high
Mikal BridgesNY
1.4± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Data via ESPN · hoopR