MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

Karros singled to right, S. Thompson to second. → win prob 18→34% COL

BOT 9TH+2MIL

MIL

37-23

COL

24-39

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 979 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

MLB · At bat

Bottom 90-00 outs

Pitcher· MIL

T. Megill

0.0 IP, 0 ER

Batter· COL

J. McCarthy

2-4

LastTrevor Megill pitches to Jake McCarthy

Live · model leanBot 9thPolls every 30s

65.8%

MIL wins · current

Pre-game: 61.0% MIL

MIL 5 · 3 COL

MIL +2

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 9

away leadsCOL leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingCOLBottom 9th Inning · 5-3
+16pp→ 34% WP
Karros · singled to right, S. Thompson to second.
Lead flipMILTop 9th Inning · 3-3
+42pp→ 72% WP
Frelick · doubled to center, Perkins scored, Bauers to third.
SwingMILTop 9th Inning · 1-3
+12pp→ 31% WP
Contreras · grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Turang safe at second on throwing error by pitcher Senzatela, Turang safe at third on error.
SwingCOLBottom 3rd Inning · 1-3
+11pp→ 70% WP
Goodman · homered to left (411 feet).
Lead flipCOLBottom 2nd Inning · 1-2
+10pp→ 57% WP
Julien · singled to left, Tovar scored.

Coors Field · Denver, Colorado

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 11.09

B. Sproat

1-4 · 6.24 ERA

R. Feltner

2-1 · 4.85 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

COL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 11.5

open O/U 11.5

COL no-vig %

41.6%

open 41.7% · -0.2

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = COL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.1%

ensemble · MIL favored

Elo Static
26.9%
P(COL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
28.6%
P(COL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
27.0%
P(COL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.77 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

1.0%

-25.9ppvs pre-game · MIL favored

Leverage

±2.6

pp · next play

low · 6/100

Mostly decided · 9th or later · home ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.17

CLV pp

Open price

-156

Close price

-157

Open no-vig

58.3%

Close no-vig

58.4%

Line barely moved

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+40.6pp

best edge · MIL · DraftKings

MIL

★ best

+810DraftKings

edge +40.6pp · implied 20.4%

COL

no live price

Book	MIL	COL	Best edge
DraftKings	+810★	+133	+40.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

COL vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
9.0± 2.6low
Kyle HarrisonMIL
6.6± 5.5low
Brandon SproatMIL
4.8± 1.6low

Hits

Christian YelichMIL
1.3± 1.1high
Troy JohnstonCOL
1.2± 0.7high
Jackson ChourioMIL
1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

Hunter GoodmanCOL
2.3± 2.4high
Jackson ChourioMIL
2.2± 2.7high
Christian YelichMIL
2.0± 1.7high

RBIs

Jackson ChourioMIL
0.9± 1.4high
Hunter GoodmanCOL
0.7± 1.2high
Christian YelichMIL
0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

Kyle FreelandCOL
4.0± 3.7low
Michael LorenzenCOL
4.0± 3.1low
Brandon SproatMIL
2.9± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelEdge

● Live

MIL★

Brewers

42-24

vs61.0%MIL

COL

Rockies

24-47

MIL 61.0%win prob39.0% COL

MIL 1577 · COL 1380Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
C. Yelich★DH	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2	20.4
J. Chourio★LF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	11.1
B. Turang★2B	1-4	4	1	1	0	0	0	2	26.4
SPRINT28.586
W. Contreras★C	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.0
J. Bauers★1B	2-4	4	2	2	1	0	0	1	69.2
SPRINT2744
G. Mitchell★CF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	24.3
S. Frelick★RF	1-2	2	1	1	1	0	2	0	64.9
SPRINT28.790
L. Rengifo★3B	0-3	3	0	0	1	0	0	0	4.7
D. Hamilton★SS	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	2	11.0
A. Vaughn1B	1-1	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	21.2

Team	5-33	33	5	5	5	0	3	9	—

Batting

Analytics

Player

C. Yelich★DH

0-4

20.4

J. Chourio★LF

0-4

11.1

B. Turang★2B

1-4

26.4

W. Contreras★C

0-4

6.0

J. Bauers★1B

2-4

69.2

G. Mitchell★CF

0-4

24.3

S. Frelick★RF

1-2

64.9

L. Rengifo★3B

0-3

4.7

D. Hamilton★SS

0-3

11.0

A. Vaughn1B

1-1

21.2

Team

5-33

—

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Pitching	Analytics
B. Sproat★SP	5.0	7	3	3	2	2	1	15.5
B. FitzpatrickRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3.0
C. YohoRP	2.0	0	0	0	2	3	0	1.9

Team	8.0	9	3	3	4	6	1	—

Pitching

Analytics

Player

B. Sproat★SP

5.0

15.5

B. FitzpatrickRP

1.0

3.0

C. YohoRP

2.0

1.9

Team

8.0

—

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
J. McCarthy★CF	2-4	4	1	2	0	0	0	0	4.2
SPRINT29.698
T. Freeman★RF	0-3	3	0	0	1	0	1	0	10.0
T. Rumfield★1B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	1	2.8
H. Goodman★C	1-3	3	1	1	1	1	1	1	4.8
SPRINT27.148
T. Johnston★RF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.0
W. Castro★2B	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	1	0	1.9
E. Tovar★SS	1-4	4	1	1	0	0	0	1	7.0
SPRINT27.867
S. Thompson★RF	2-4	4	0	2	0	0	0	1	21.9
E. Julien★2B	1-2	2	0	1	1	0	0	1	5.1
SPRINT26.225
K. Karros3B	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	1	18.5

Team	9-32	32	3	9	3	1	4	6	—

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Pitching	Analytics
R. Feltner★SP	6.0	1	1	1	2	4	0	22.1
J. HillRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	6.6
A. SenzatelaRP	1.2	4	4	3	0	4	0	72.0
B. BernardinoRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0
Team	9.0	5	5	4	3	9	0	—

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIL	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	5
COL	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	3

Team

MIL

COL