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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3BOS
BOS

BOS

1-0

3
0
CIN

CIN

0-1

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio
43,897 attended

Line movement

23 snapshots

CIN spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

CIN no-vig %

40.7%

open 40.7%

+2.0+1.0CIN SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL44.7%36.7%CIN NO-VIG %MODEL 38.9%May 4, 11 AMMay 29, 1 PM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

BOS 3 · CIN 0 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BOS +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BOS0000001023
CIN0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+135

Close price

+135

Open no-vig

40.7%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Thu, Mar 26·Final/SeriesCIN wins series 2-1/VegasBOS -163

Recap · MLB

Boston Red Sox went into Cincinnati Reds and beat them, 3–0.

BOS -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 8.0 by 5.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BOS · top performer

BOS
Marcelo Mayer

Marcelo Mayer

2B

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

2

R

0

RBI

CIN · top performer

CIN
Sal Stewart

Sal Stewart

1B

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Boston Red Sox at Cincinnati Reds · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BOS1-0
3
0
CIN0-1
BOS1-0·CIN0-1
BOS

BOS

1-0

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. AnthonyR. Anthony★LF
3-44130011
SPRINT27.457
T. StoryT. Story★SS
1-55011001
SPRINT27.969
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
2-55021001
SPRINT29.294
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★1B
0-44000011
C. DurbinC. Durbin★3B
0-33000010
W. AbreuW. Abreu★RF
1-44010001
I. Kiner-FalefaI. Kiner-Falefa★2B
0-22000001
C. NarvaezC. Narvaez★C
1-33010001
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
2-44021000
SPRINT28.790
M. MayerM. Mayer2B
2-22220000
SPRINT27.560
Team12-36363123037
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. CrochetG. Crochet★SP
6.0300280
J. SlatenJ. SlatenRP
1.0000120
G. WhitlockG. WhitlockRP
1.0100020
A. ChapmanA. ChapmanRP
1.0000000
Team9.04003120
CIN

CIN

0-1

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. FriedlT. Friedl★CF
0-44000001
SPRINT26.838
M. McLainM. McLain★2B
0-33000011
SPRINT28.586
E. De La CruzE. De La Cruz★SS
1-44010002
SPRINT2872
S. StewartS. Stewart★1B
3-44030000
SPRINT26.530
E. SuarezE. Suarez★DH
0-44000003
SPRINT25.818
S. SteerS. Steer★LF
0-33000012
T. StephensonT. Stephenson★C
0-33000010
N. MarteN. Marte★RF
0-22000002
K. HayesK. Hayes★3B
0-33000000
W. BensonW. BensonRF
0-11000001
D. MyersD. MyersCF
0-11000000
Team4-32320400312
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. AbbottA. Abbott★SP
6.0700140
P. JohnsonP. JohnsonRP
0.1211000
S. MollS. MollRP
1.0000010
G. AshcraftG. AshcraftRP
0.2000110
C. PhillipsC. PhillipsRP
0.2222110
B. BurkeB. BurkeRP
0.1100000
Team9.01233370

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BOS

  • G. Crochet
    80 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      38%·96.9 mph·13% whiff
    • FC
      31%·91.1 mph·24% whiff
    • SI
      19%·95.8 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      10%·83.6 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      3%·88.8 mph·— whiff
  • G. Whitlock
    18 pitches·50% CSW
    • SI
      44%·95.0 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      33%·84.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      22%·84.9 mph·67% whiff
  • J. Slaten
    17 pitches·29% CSW
    • FC
      59%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      24%·85.8 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      18%·96.6 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Chapman
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      55%·96.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      27%·84.9 mph·— whiff
    • FS
      9%·89.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      9%·99.5 mph·— whiff

CIN

  • A. Abbott
    83 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      54%·93.0 mph·4% whiff
    • ST
      20%·81.8 mph·30% whiff
    • CH
      13%·85.2 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      12%·79.4 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Phillips
    16 pitches·44% CSW
    • ST
      81%·86.5 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      19%·98.5 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Ashcraft
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • FC
      64%·99.5 mph·40% whiff
    • SL
      36%·93.9 mph·100% whiff
  • P. Johnson
    9 pitches·11% CSW
    • CU
      56%·87.5 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      44%·95.7 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Moll
    6 pitches·67% CSW
    • ST
      67%·81.3 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      17%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      17%·91.6 mph·— whiff
  • B. Burke
    3 pitches·0% CSW
    • FF
      33%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      33%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      33%·86.2 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

Hits

4

3

Runs

0

1

Errors

0

Current series

CIN wins series 2-1

Mar 26BOSBOS3@CINCIN0today
Mar 28BOSBOS5@CINCIN6
Mar 29BOSBOS2@CINCIN3

Season series

BOS leads series 1-0

Mar 26BOSBOS3@CINCIN0today
Mar 28BOSBOS5@CINCIN6
Mar 29BOSBOS2@CINCIN3

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

BOSBOS-16362%
CINCIN+13543%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗

Line movement · 23 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBOS ↔ CIN

Biggest swing: 13pp · Top 7th Inning

BOSBOS
M. Mayer

M. Mayer

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 2 R · 2.000 OPS

G. Crochet

G. Crochet

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 8 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

CINCIN
S. Stewart

S. Stewart

1B

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1.500 OPS

A. Abbott

A. Abbott

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

How it ended

BOS beat CIN 3-0.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

CIN vs BOS

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BOSBottom 6th Inning · 0-0
+10pp→ 40% WP

Suárez struck out swinging.

BOSTop 7th Inning · 1-0
+13pp→ 70% WP

Rafaela · singled to center, Mayer scored.

BOSBottom 8th Inning · 1-0
+10pp→ 84% WP

Suárez struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BOS0000001023
CIN0000000000

Period scoring

BOS won 2 · CIN won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Rafaela 1

0
0

Inn 8

2
0

Inn 9

Story 1

BOS
CIN

Play-by-play · 533 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    BOS 3·CIN 0

  2. B9

    ·

    BOS 3·CIN 0

  3. B9

    Myers flied out to left.

    ·

    BOS 3·CIN 0

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BOS 3·CIN 0

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    BOS 3·CIN 0

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BOS 3·CIN 0

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    BOS 3·CIN 0

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    BOS 3·CIN 0

  9. B9

    Aroldis Chapman pitches to Dane Myers

    ·

    BOS 3·CIN 0

  10. B9

    Myers hit for Benson

    ·

    BOS 3·CIN 0

  11. B9

    ·

    BOS 3·CIN 0

  12. B9

    Stephenson flied out to center.

    ·

    BOS 3·CIN 0

    −1pp

  13. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BOS 3·CIN 0

  14. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    BOS 3·CIN 0

  15. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    BOS 3·CIN 0

  16. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    BOS 3·CIN 0

  17. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BOS 3·CIN 0

  18. B9

    Aroldis Chapman pitches to Tyler Stephenson

    ·

    BOS 3·CIN 0

  19. B9

    ·

    BOS 3·CIN 0

  20. B9

    Steer flied out to left.

    ·

    BOS 3·CIN 0

    −2pp

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BOS 3·CIN 0

  22. B9

    Aroldis Chapman pitches to Spencer Steer

    ·

    BOS 3·CIN 0

  23. B9

    Chapman relieved Whitlock

    ·

    BOS 3·CIN 0

  24. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    BOS 3·CIN 0

  25. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    BOS 3·CIN 0

  26. T9

    · ·

    BOS 3·CIN 0

  27. T9

    Contreras fouled out to catcher.

    · ·

    BOS 3·CIN 0

  28. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BOS 3·CIN 0

  29. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BOS 3·CIN 0

  30. T9

    Brock Burke pitches to Willson Contreras

    · ·

    BOS 3·CIN 0

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

CIN

Home

3

Runs

0

12

Hits

4

1

Errors

0

13

TB

6

0

HR

0

3

BB

3

7

K

12

20

LOB

17

Betting line

BOS -1.5·O/U 8·BOS -163/CIN +135

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Noelvi MarteCIN · RF
    SPRINT28.992
  • Matt McLainCIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Spencer SteerCIN · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Caleb DurbinBOS · 3B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

CIN vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.5± 3.8low
  • Connelly EarlyBOS
    5.1± 2.1low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.7high
  • Blake DunnCIN
    1.3± 1.3low
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.5± 2.9high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.4± 1.5high
  • Elly De La CruzCIN
    1.9± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Tyler StephensonCIN
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.5± 3.6low
  • Chris PaddackCIN
    3.4± 3.6low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    3.3± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.9%

ensemble · BOS favored

  • Elo Static

    48.7%

    P(CIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    51.6%

    P(CIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    48.9%

    P(CIN win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.32 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Mar 29, 26sim 98
    22
    17(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 7, 26sim 94
    121
    13(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 19, 26sim 94
    154
    22(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 18, 26sim 93
    153
    22(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 15, 26sim 93
    252
    12(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 31, 26sim 92
    21
    18(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs