HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 9
  • MLBMid 5
    LAA 0@LAD 0
    -13.5pphigh
  • MLBBot 9
    MIL 5@COL 3
    -25.9pplow
  • MLBBot 7
    KC 2@MIN 5
    +43.7pplow
  • MLBMid 7
    NYM 4@SD 0
    -57.1pplow
  • MLBTop 9
    CIN 3@STL 10
    +44.8pplow
  • MLBEnd 6
    WSH 12@ARI 1
    -56.9pplow
  • NBA0.0 - 4th
    NY 105@SA 104
  • WNBA3:51 - 3rd
    DAL 69@LA 68
    -18.7pppeak
  • WNBA4:38 - 3rd
    PHX 46@POR 41
    -32.9pppeak
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THE ONE Analytics
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NYM logo
NYM
4
LiveMid 7th
SD logo
SD
0
Updated 11:27 PM ET
Live read

Torrens homered to center (413 feet), Baty scored. → win prob 73→88% NYM

MID 7TH+4NYM↑
NYM

NYM

27-35

4
0
SD

SD

32-29

MLB · At bat

Mid 7·0-0·0 outs

Pitcher

—

Batter

—

LastMiddle of the 7th inning

Live · model leanMid 7thPolls every 30s

66.7%

NYM wins · current

Pre-game: 58.1% SD

NYM 4 · 0 SD

NYM +4

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 7
away leadsSD leads

Key moments · live

newest first
  • ↑SwingNYMTop 5th Inning · 4-0
    +16pp→ 88% WP

    Torrens · homered to center (413 feet), Baty scored.

  • ↑SwingNYMTop 3rd Inning · 2-0
    +12pp→ 64% WP

    Bichette · tripled to right, Torrens scored.

  • ↑SwingNYMTop 2nd Inning · 1-0
    +12pp→ 48% WP

    Young · homered to right center (422 feet).

Petco Park · San Diego, California

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 6.15

C. Scott

1-0 · 2.97 ERA

vs

M. King

4-4 · 3.18 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

SD spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.0

open O/U 7.0

SD no-vig %

54.1%

open 54.2% · -0.1

-1.0-2.0SD SPREADO/U 7.5O/U 6.5TOTAL58.2%50.1%SD NO-VIG %MODEL 58.1%Jun 4, 6 PMJun 5, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown
Live model · pick
Receipts
Line shop
Player props
The One modelEdge
● Live
NYM4

NYM

Mets

29-38

vs58.1%SD

SD★

Padres

33-30

SD0
NYM 41.9%win prob58.1% SD
SD 1506 · NYM 1473Box score→

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21+

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Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

1.0%

-57.1ppvs pre-game · NYM favored

Leverage

±2.4

pp · next play

low · 4/100

Mostly decided · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

54%Last 7 · 57-49
60%Last 30 · 311-207
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+47.1pp

best edge · SD · DraftKings

NYM

no live price

SD

★ best
+750DraftKings

edge +47.1pp · implied 11.0%

BookNYMSDBest edge
DraftKings-1800+750★+47.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.08

CLV pp

Open price

-131

Close price

-132

Open no-vig

54.2%

Close no-vig

54.3%

Line barely moved

MLB·Fri, Jun 5·Mid 7th/VegasSD -131
Updated 0s ago
Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1M. KingSD−33.1pp
  2. 2L. TorrensNYM+30.5pp
  3. 3C. ScottNYM+23.8pp

NYM · top performer

NYM
Luis Torrens

Luis Torrens

C

3.500OPS

2-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

SD · top performer

SD
Fernando Tatis Jr.

Fernando Tatis Jr.

RF

0.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · New York Mets at San Diego Padres · live

MLB · Box scoreADVANCED

Mid 7th
NYM27-35
4
0
SD32-29
NYM27-35·SD32-29
NYM

NYM

27-35

4
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
C. BengeC. Benge★RF
0-330000012.9
SPRINT28.586
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
1-3301100211.3
SPRINT25.716
J. SotoJ. Soto★LF
0-330000000.5
J. YoungJ. Young★1B
2-3312110011.9
SPRINT27.354
A.J. EwingA.J. Ewing★CF
0-330000017.8
M. SemienM. Semien★2B
0-330000004.8
B. BatyB. Baty★3B
1-3311000015.9
SPRINT26.735
M. MelendezM. Melendez★DH
0-330000003.8
L. TorrensL. Torrens★C
2-2222210030.5
SPRINT26.428
Team6-2626464204—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
C. ScottC. Scott★SP
5.230023023.8
H. BrazobanH. BrazobanRP
0.10000103.9
Team6.0300240—
SD

SD

32-29

0
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
F. Tatis Jr.F. Tatis Jr.★RF
1-330100026.4
SPRINT28.483
G. SheetsG. Sheets★1B
0-330000008.4
SPRINT26.735
M. MachadoM. Machado★3B
1-3301000010.7
SPRINT24.32
T. FranceT. France★1B
1-3301000112.6
SPRINT24.74
J. MerrillJ. Merrill★CF
0-220000015.3
SPRINT28.688
X. BogaertsX. Bogaerts★SS
0-220000005.4
B. JohnsonB. Johnson★RF
0-220000003.8
S. SongS. Song★2B
0-220000000.3
R. DuranR. Duran★C
0-000000206.5
Team3-2020030024—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
M. KingM. King★SP
6.064404233.1
D. MorganD. MorganRP
1.00000000.7
Team7.0644042—

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

3

4

Runs

0

0

Errors

0

Season series

Jun 6NYMNYM@SDSDtoday
Jun 7NYMNYM@SDSDupcoming
Jun 7NYMNYM@SDSDupcoming
Aug 17SDSD@NYMNYMupcoming
Aug 18SDSD@NYMNYMupcoming
Aug 19SDSD@NYMNYMupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SD -1.5

Total

7.0

Defensive · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NYMNYM+10848%
SDSD-13157%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SD -1.5↗SpreadBet SD -1.5↗

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats
NYMNYMSP
C. Scott

C. Scott

#45 · 1-0

ERA

2.97

K

38

SV

—

Last 3 starts

5/30vsMIAMIA5.0 IP · 1 ER · 8 KW(1-0)
5/24@MIAMIA5.2 IP · 0 ER · 5 K-
5/18@WSHWSH4.0 IP · 3 ER · 5 K-
VS
SDSDSP
M. King

M. King

#34 · 4-4

ERA

3.18

K

65

SV

—

Last 3 starts

5/30@WSHWSH6.0 IP · 5 ER · 2 KL(4-4)
5/24vsATHATH3.2 IP · 4 ER · 4 KL(4-3)
5/19vsLADLAD7.0 IP · 0 ER · 9 KW(4-2)

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order
NYMNYM6L · 3R
  1. 1

    C. Benge

    RF · #3

    L
  2. 2

    B. Bichette

    SS · #19

    R
  3. 3

    J. Soto

    LF · #22

    L
  4. 4

    J. Young

    1B · #29

    L
  5. 5

    A.J. Ewing

    CF · #9

    L
  6. 6

    M. Semien

    2B · #10

    R
  7. 7

    B. Baty

    3B · #7

    L
  8. 8

    M. Melendez

    DH · #1

    L
  9. 9

    L. Torrens

    C · #13

    R
SDSD3L · 5R · 1S
  1. 1

    F. Tatis Jr.

    RF · #23

    R
  2. 2

    G. Sheets

    DH · #30

    L
  3. 3

    M. Machado

    3B · #13

    R
  4. 4

    T. France

    1B · #25

    R
  5. 5

    J. Merrill

    CF · #3

    L
  6. 6

    X. Bogaerts

    SS · #2

    R
  7. 7

    B. Johnson

    LF · #29

    B
  8. 8

    S. Song

    2B · #24

    L
  9. 9

    R. Duran

    C · #48

    R

Live · top performers so far

Mid 7th
Game flowNYM ↔ SD

Recent swing: 16pp · Top 5th Inning

Just happened

Middle of the 7th inning

NYMNYM
L. Torrens

L. Torrens

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 1 HR · 3.500 OPS

C. Scott

C. Scott

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 4 K · 0 ER

SDSD
F. Tatis Jr.

F. Tatis Jr.

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.667 OPS

M. King

M. King

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 4 K · 4 ER · 6 H

On pace: 7 IP · 5 K · 5 ER

How it's going

NYM lead SD 4-0 (Mid 7th).

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYMTop 2nd Inning · 1-0
+12pp→ 48% WP

Young · homered to right center (422 feet).

NYMTop 3rd Inning · 2-0
+12pp→ 64% WP

Bichette · tripled to right, Torrens scored.

NYMTop 5th Inning · 4-0
+16pp→ 88% WP

Torrens · homered to center (413 feet), Baty scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team1234567R
NYM01102004
SD000000—0

Team stats

NYM

Away

Stat

SD

Home

4

Runs

0

6

Hits

3

0

Errors

0

15

TB

3

2

HR

0

0

BB

2

4

K

4

5

LOB

11

Betting line

SD -1.5·O/U 7·NYM +108/SD -131

DraftKings · via ESPN

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.0

0.0 since open

Win probability

SD vs NYM

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7

Period scoring

NYM won 3 · SD won 0

0
0

Inn 1

1
0

Inn 2

Young 1

1
0

Inn 3

Bichette 1

0
0

Inn 4

2
0

Inn 5

Torrens 2

0
0

Inn 6

0

Inn 7

NYM
SD

Play-by-play · 381 plays

period
event
player
  1. M7

    Middle of the 7th inning

    NYM 4·SD 0

  2. T7

    ·

    NYM 4·SD 0

  3. T7

    Melendez popped out to second.

    ·

    NYM 4·SD 0

  4. T7

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYM 4·SD 0

  5. T7

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    NYM 4·SD 0

  6. T7

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    NYM 4·SD 0

  7. T7

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYM 4·SD 0

  8. T7

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    NYM 4·SD 0

  9. T7

    David Morgan pitches to MJ Melendez

    ·

    NYM 4·SD 0

  10. T7

    ·

    NYM 4·SD 0

  11. T7

    Baty grounded out to first.

    ·

    NYM 4·SD 0

  12. T7

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYM 4·SD 0

  13. T7

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    NYM 4·SD 0

  14. T7

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    NYM 4·SD 0

  15. T7

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYM 4·SD 0

  16. T7

    David Morgan pitches to Brett Baty

    ·

    NYM 4·SD 0

  17. T7

    ·

    NYM 4·SD 0

  18. T7

    Semien grounded out to first.

    ·

    NYM 4·SD 0

  19. T7

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYM 4·SD 0

  20. T7

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    NYM 4·SD 0

  21. T7

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    NYM 4·SD 0

  22. T7

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYM 4·SD 0

  23. T7

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    NYM 4·SD 0

  24. T7

    David Morgan pitches to Marcus Semien

    ·

    NYM 4·SD 0

  25. T7

    Morgan relieved King

    ·

    NYM 4·SD 0

  26. T7

    Top of the 7th inning

    NYM 4·SD 0

  27. End 6t

    End of the 6th inning

    NYM 4·SD 0

  28. B6

    · ·

    NYM 4·SD 0

  29. B6

    France struck out swinging.

    · ·

    NYM 4·SD 0

    −4pp

  30. B6

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    NYM 4·SD 0

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Jackson MerrillSD · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Carson BengeNYM · RF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Marcus SemienNYM · 2B
    SPRINT28.175

Recent pitches · last 8

ESPN PBP · live
  1. Ground OutFF 98#4
  2. Strike SwingingSL 87#1
  3. BallSL 88#2
  4. Foul BallSL 87#3
  5. Foul BallFF 97#4
  6. Pop OutCU 82#5
  7. BallSI 95#1
  8. Foul BallSI 95#2

Player projections

SD vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Freddy PeraltaNYM
    5.6± 3.2low
  • Christian ScottNYM
    5.4± 3.2low

Hits

  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.4± 1.2high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.1± 0.7high
  • Bo BichetteNYM
    1.0± 1.4high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.2± 2.2high
  • Carson BengeNYM
    1.8± 2.7high
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.8± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Manny MachadoSD
    0.7± 0.9high
  • Carson BengeNYM
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.7± 2.6low
  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    2.7± 2.9low
  • Yu DarvishSD
    2.6± 1.2medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.7%

ensemble · SD favored

  • Elo Static

    58.1%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    57.9%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    57.3%

    P(SD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.34 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 979 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 1, 26sim 96
    181
    2(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 3, 26sim 95
    183
    2(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jun 1, 26sim 95
    212
    12(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 14, 26sim 93
    261
    17(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jun 5, 26sim 93
    111
    18(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jun 3, 26sim 93
    217
    12(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs