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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3PHI
CLE

CLE

31-23

0
3
PHI

PHI

26-26

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
36,125 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

PHI spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

PHI no-vig %

63.6%

open 63.6%

-1.0-2.0PHI SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL67.6%59.6%PHI NO-VIG %May 22, 7 PMMay 23, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PHI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

CLE 0 · PHI 3 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CLE0000000000
PHI000201003

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+11.4pp

best edge · CLE · DraftKings

CLE

★ best
+138DraftKings

edge +11.4pp · implied 40.2%

PHI

no live price

BookCLEPHIBest edge
DraftKings+138★-167+11.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+163

Close price

+163

Open no-vig

36.4%

Close no-vig

36.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Sat, May 23·Final/SeriesCLE wins series 2-1/VegasPHI -167

Recap · MLB

Philadelphia Phillies held off Cleveland Guardians, 3–0.

PHI -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 7.0 by 4.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CLE · top performer

CLE
Rhys Hoskins

Rhys Hoskins

1B

0.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

PHI · top performer

PHI
Bryce Harper

Bryce Harper

1B

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

0

RBI

MLB · Cleveland Guardians at Philadelphia Phillies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CLE31-23
0
3
PHI26-26
CLE31-23·PHI26-26
CLE

CLE

31-23

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. BazzanaT. Bazzana★2B
1-44010000
SPRINT27.662
J. RamirezJ. Ramirez★3B
0-44000001
SPRINT27.251
C. DeLauterC. DeLauter★RF
1-44010001
SPRINT26.941
K. ManzardoK. Manzardo★1B
0-44000003
SPRINT25.411
R. HoskinsR. Hoskins★1B
1-33010002
SPRINT24.96
D. SchneemannD. Schneemann★CF
0-33000002
A. MartinezA. Martinez★LF
0-33000000
S. KwanS. Kwan★CF
0-33000000
P. BaileyP. Bailey★C
0-22000011
Team3-30300300110
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. CecconiS. Cecconi★SP
5.0633150
M. FestaM. FestaRP
1.0000220
S. ArmstrongS. ArmstrongRP
1.0100010
P. PalletteP. PalletteRP
1.0000310
Team8.0733690
PHI

PHI

26-26

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TurnerT. Turner★SS
0-44000001
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
0-44000003
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
3-44230000
SPRINT2744
A. BohmA. Bohm★3B
1-33110010
SPRINT26.632
B. MarshB. Marsh★LF
0-33000012
B. StottB. Stott★2B
1-33012010
SPRINT28.688
J.T. RealmutoJ.T. Realmuto★C
2-33020011
SPRINT28.381
A. GarciaA. Garcia★RF
0-22001021
SPRINT26.735
J. CrawfordJ. Crawford★CF
0-44000001
Team7-3030373069
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Z. WheelerZ. Wheeler★SP
6.0200160
O. KerkeringO. KerkeringRP
1.0000020
B. KellerB. KellerRP
1.0000010
J. DuranJ. DuranRP
1.0100010
Team9.03001100

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CLE

  • S. Cecconi
    86 pitches·24% CSW
    • SI
      29%·92.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      27%·87.5 mph·11% whiff
    • FF
      21%·93.1 mph·27% whiff
    • CU
      15%·76.8 mph·40% whiff
    • CH
      8%·80.7 mph·20% whiff
  • P. Pallette
    29 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      41%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      31%·85.7 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      24%·81.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      3%·86.3 mph·— whiff
  • M. Festa
    19 pitches·11% CSW
    • ST
      42%·83.3 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      37%·91.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      21%·90.2 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Armstrong
    18 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      39%·92.1 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      28%·89.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      22%·82.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      11%·92.6 mph·0% whiff

PHI

  • Z. Wheeler
    99 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      41%·94.6 mph·17% whiff
    • FS
      22%·86.7 mph·43% whiff
    • FC
      17%·91.0 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      7%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      6%·79.0 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      6%·81.2 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Duran
    20 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      40%·99.8 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      30%·89.5 mph·33% whiff
    • FS
      20%·97.3 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      10%·88.7 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Keller
    16 pitches·13% CSW
    • FF
      38%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      25%·92.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·86.2 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      13%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
  • O. Kerkering
    12 pitches·50% CSW
    • ST
      58%·86.2 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      25%·91.5 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      17%·97.3 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

3

Hits

7

0

Runs

3

0

Errors

0

Current series

CLE wins series 2-1

May 22CLECLE1@PHIPHI0
May 23CLECLE0@PHIPHI3today
May 24CLECLE3@PHIPHI1

Season series

Series tied 1-1

May 22CLECLE1@PHIPHI0
May 23CLECLE0@PHIPHI3today
May 24CLECLE3@PHIPHI1

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -1.5

Total

7.0

Defensive · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CLECLE+13842%
PHIPHI-16763%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCLE ↔ PHI

Biggest swing: 18pp · Bottom 4th Inning

CLECLE
R. Hoskins

R. Hoskins

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.667 OPS

S. Cecconi

S. Cecconi

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 3 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

PHIPHI
B. Harper

B. Harper

1B

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 2 R · 1.500 OPS

Z. Wheeler

Z. Wheeler

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 1 BB

How it ended

PHI beat CLE 3-0. Stott's play in the bottom 4th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Win probability

PHI vs CLE

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CLETop 4th Inning · 0-0
+10pp→ 46% WP

DeLauter · doubled to right.

PHIBottom 4th Inning · 0-2
+18pp→ 84% WP

Stott · singled to center, Harper scored and Bohm scored.

PHIBottom 6th Inning · 0-3
+6pp→ 92% WP

Garc · ía walked, Harper scored, Stott to second, Bohm to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CLE0000000000
PHI00020100—3

Period scoring

CLE won 0 · PHI won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
2

Inn 4

Stott 2

0
0

Inn 5

0
1

Inn 6

Garc 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

CLE
PHI

Play-by-play · 549 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    CLE 0·PHI 3

  2. T9

    Manzardo struck out swinging.

    · ·

    CLE 0·PHI 3

    +1pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    CLE 0·PHI 3

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    CLE 0·PHI 3

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CLE 0·PHI 3

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CLE 0·PHI 3

  7. T9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to Kyle Manzardo

    · ·

    CLE 0·PHI 3

  8. T9

    · ·

    CLE 0·PHI 3

  9. T9

    DeLauter grounded out to shortstop, Bazzana to third.

    · ·

    CLE 0·PHI 3

    +3pp

  10. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CLE 0·PHI 3

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    CLE 0·PHI 3

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CLE 0·PHI 3

  13. T9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to Chase DeLauter

    · ·

    CLE 0·PHI 3

  14. T9

    · ·

    CLE 0·PHI 3

  15. T9

    Ramírez flied out to left.

    · ·

    CLE 0·PHI 3

    +4pp

  16. T9

    Pitch 11 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CLE 0·PHI 3

  17. T9

    Pitch 10 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CLE 0·PHI 3

  18. T9

    Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CLE 0·PHI 3

  19. T9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CLE 0·PHI 3

  20. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CLE 0·PHI 3

  21. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CLE 0·PHI 3

  22. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CLE 0·PHI 3

  23. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CLE 0·PHI 3

  24. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CLE 0·PHI 3

  25. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    CLE 0·PHI 3

  26. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CLE 0·PHI 3

  27. T9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to Jose Ramirez

    · ·

    CLE 0·PHI 3

  28. T9

    ·

    CLE 0·PHI 3

  29. T9

    Bazzana doubled to right.

    ·

    CLE 0·PHI 3

    −5pp

  30. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CLE 0·PHI 3

Team stats

CLE

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

0

Runs

3

3

Hits

7

0

Errors

0

6

TB

7

0

HR

0

1

BB

6

10

K

9

10

LOB

19

Betting line

PHI -1.5·O/U 7·CLE +138/PHI -167

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

PHI vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.2± 3.6low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.5± 3.6low

Hits

  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Brayan RocchioCLE
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.5± 2.8high
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Brayan RocchioCLE
    1.7± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    0.9± 1.6high
  • Jose RamirezCLE
    0.7± 1.0high
  • Angel MartinezCLE
    0.6± 0.7high

Earned runs

  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low
  • Slade CecconiCLE
    2.8± 2.8low
  • Tanner BibeeCLE
    2.7± 3.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.0%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    50.8%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    54.4%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    50.9%

    P(PHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.67 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 16 players in cohort
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • Bryson StottPHI · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • J.T. RealmutoPHI · C
    SPRINT28.381
  • Brandon MarshPHI · LF
    SPRINT28.175

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 22, 26sim 98
    51
    22(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 25, 26sim 97
    223
    25(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 24, 26sim 96
    53
    22(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 10, 26sim 95
    160
    13(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 27, 26sim 95
    223
    25(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 19, 26sim 94
    174
    22(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs