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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1CLE
CLE

CLE

31-22

1
0
PHI

PHI

25-26

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
38,092 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

PHI spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 7.0

open O/U 7.0

PHI no-vig %

62.1%

open 63.1% · -1.0

+0.5-2.0PHI SPREADO/U 7.5O/U 6.5TOTAL67.1%57.6%PHI NO-VIG %May 21, 3 PMMay 22, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PHI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

CLE 1 · PHI 0 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PHI +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CLE0000000011
PHI0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+12.9pp

best edge · CLE · DraftKings

CLE

★ best
+143DraftKings

edge +12.9pp · implied 38.7%

PHI

no live price

BookCLEPHIBest edge
DraftKings+143★-188+12.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Fri, May 22·Final/SeriesCLE wins series 2-1/VegasPHI -186

Recap · MLB

Cleveland Guardians went into Philadelphia Phillies and beat them, 1–0. It came down to the final possession.

CLE +1.5 cashed (PHI lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 5.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CLE · top performer

CLE
Kyle Manzardo

Kyle Manzardo

1B

5.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

PHI · top performer

PHI
Brandon Marsh

Brandon Marsh

LF

0.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Cleveland Guardians at Philadelphia Phillies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CLE31-22
1
0
PHI25-26
CLE31-22·PHI25-26
CLE

CLE

31-22

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
A. MartinezA. Martinez★LF
0-44000001
J. RamirezJ. Ramirez★3B
1-44010000
SPRINT27.251
R. HoskinsR. Hoskins★1B
0-22000011
D. FryD. Fry★RF
2-33020000
SPRINT25.716
T. BazzanaT. Bazzana★2B
0-44000003
B. RocchioB. Rocchio★SS
1-33010001
SPRINT27.354
S. KwanS. Kwan★CF
0-33000001
A. HedgesA. Hedges★C
1-22010010
SPRINT24.43
P. HalpinP. Halpin★CF
0-33000000
K. ManzardoK. Manzardo1B
1-11111100
SPRINT25.411
C. DeLauterC. DeLauterRF
0-11000000
Team6-3030161127
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. WilliamsG. Williams★SP
8.05000110
C. SmithC. SmithRP
1.0000010
Team9.05000120
PHI

PHI

25-26

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TurnerT. Turner★SS
0-44000001
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
0-44000004
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
1-44010000
SPRINT2744
A. BohmA. Bohm★3B
0-33000001
B. MarshB. Marsh★LF
1-33010002
SPRINT28.175
A. GarciaA. Garcia★RF
1-33010002
SPRINT26.735
B. StottB. Stott★2B
1-33010000
SPRINT28.688
J.T. RealmutoJ.T. Realmuto★C
1-33010001
SPRINT28.381
J. CrawfordJ. Crawford★CF
0-33000001
Team5-30300500012
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. SanchezC. Sanchez★SP
8.0400260
J. DuranJ. DuranRP
1.0211011
Team9.0611271

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CLE

  • G. Williams
    99 pitches·31% CSW
    • ST
      34%·87.6 mph·56% whiff
    • CU
      25%·82.8 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      25%·96.4 mph·14% whiff
    • FF
      11%·96.9 mph·14% whiff
    • FC
      4%·91.7 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Smith
    8 pitches·38% CSW
    • FS
      63%·87.6 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      25%·84.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      13%·98.0 mph·100% whiff

PHI

  • C. Sanchez
    96 pitches·34% CSW
    • SI
      36%·95.0 mph·7% whiff
    • SL
      32%·86.0 mph·69% whiff
    • CH
      31%·87.1 mph·56% whiff
  • J. Duran
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • FS
      50%·96.4 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      21%·99.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      14%·88.6 mph·— whiff
    • KC
      14%·86.7 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

5

1

Runs

0

0

Errors

0

Current series

CLE wins series 2-1

May 22CLECLE1@PHIPHI0today
May 23CLECLE0@PHIPHI3
May 24CLECLE3@PHIPHI1

Season series

CLE leads series 1-0

May 22CLECLE1@PHIPHI0today
May 23CLECLE0@PHIPHI3
May 24CLECLE3@PHIPHI1

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CLECLE+15340%
PHIPHI-18665%

↗1· 6.5h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCLE ↔ PHI

Biggest swing: 37pp · Top 9th Inning

CLECLE
K. Manzardo

K. Manzardo

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 HR · 5.000 OPS

G. Williams

G. Williams

SP

Starting pitcherGem

8.0 IP · 11 K · 0 ER · 5 H

PHIPHI
B. Marsh

B. Marsh

LF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.667 OPS

C. Sanchez

C. Sanchez

SP

Starting pitcherGem

8.0 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

How it ended

CLE beat PHI 1-0. Manzardo's play in the top 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (37pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

PHI vs CLE

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CLETop 6th Inning · 0-0
+9pp→ 51% WP

Hedges · walked.

CLETop 9th Inning · 1-0
+37pp→ 81% WP

Manzardo · homered to left (364 feet).

CLEBottom 9th Inning · 1-0
+9pp→ 88% WP

Turner · flied out to shortstop.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CLE0000000011
PHI0000000000

Period scoring

CLE won 1 · PHI won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

1
0

Inn 9

Manzardo 1

CLE
PHI

Play-by-play · 449 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CLE 1·PHI 0

  2. B9

    ·

    CLE 1·PHI 0

  3. B9

    Harper grounded out to first.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    CLE 1·PHI 0

    −6pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CLE 1·PHI 0

  5. B9

    Cade Smith pitches to Bryce Harper

    ·

    CLE 1·PHI 0

  6. B9

    ·

    CLE 1·PHI 0

  7. B9

    Schwarber struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    CLE 1·PHI 0

    −7pp

  8. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CLE 1·PHI 0

  9. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    CLE 1·PHI 0

  10. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CLE 1·PHI 0

  11. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    CLE 1·PHI 0

  12. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CLE 1·PHI 0

  13. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CLE 1·PHI 0

  14. B9

    Cade Smith pitches to Kyle Schwarber

    ·

    CLE 1·PHI 0

  15. B9

    ·

    CLE 1·PHI 0

  16. B9

    Turner flied out to shortstop.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    CLE 1·PHI 0

    −9pp

  17. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CLE 1·PHI 0

  18. B9

    Cade Smith pitches to Trea Turner

    ·

    CLE 1·PHI 0

  19. B9

    Smith relieved Williams

    ·

    CLE 1·PHI 0

  20. B9

    DeLauter as designated hitter.

    CLE 1·PHI 0

  21. B9

    Manzardo at first base.

    CLE 1·PHI 0

  22. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    CLE 1·PHI 0

  23. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    CLE 1·PHI 0

  24. T9

    ·

    CLE 1·PHI 0

  25. T9

    Bazzana struck out looking.

    ·

    CLE 1·PHI 0

    +1pp

  26. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    CLE 1·PHI 0

  27. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    CLE 1·PHI 0

  28. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CLE 1·PHI 0

  29. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CLE 1·PHI 0

  30. T9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to Travis Bazzana

    ·

    CLE 1·PHI 0

Team stats

CLE

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

1

Runs

0

6

Hits

5

0

Errors

0

9

TB

6

1

HR

0

2

BB

0

7

K

12

11

LOB

7

Betting line

PHI -1.5·O/U 6.5·CLE +153/PHI -186

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.13

CLV pp

Open price

+159

Close price

+158

Open no-vig

36.9%

Close no-vig

37.0%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 23, 26sim 98
    50
    22(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 25, 26sim 95
    223
    25(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 5, 26sim 94
    80
    24(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 24, 26sim 94
    53
    22(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 10, 26sim 93
    160
    13(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 15, 26sim 93
    252
    12(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 16 players in cohort
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • Bryson StottPHI · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • J.T. RealmutoPHI · C
    SPRINT28.381
  • Brandon MarshPHI · LF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

PHI vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.2± 3.6low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.5± 3.6low

Hits

  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Brayan RocchioCLE
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.5± 2.8high
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Brayan RocchioCLE
    1.7± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    0.9± 1.6high
  • Jose RamirezCLE
    0.7± 1.0high
  • Angel MartinezCLE
    0.6± 0.7high

Earned runs

  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low
  • Slade CecconiCLE
    2.8± 2.8low
  • Tanner BibeeCLE
    2.7± 3.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.4%

ensemble · CLE favored

  • Elo Static

    50.8%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    52.7%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    50.9%

    P(PHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.87 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.