• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+2SD
SD

SD

26-18

2
0
SEA

SEA

22-24

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington
43,349 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

SEA spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

SEA no-vig %

56.3%

open 56.3%

+0.5-2.0SEA SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL60.3%52.3%SEA NO-VIG %May 14, 5 PMMay 15, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SEA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

SD 2 · SEA 0 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SD +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SD0001001002
SEA0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

54%Last 7 · 55-46
61%Last 30 · 318-205
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

SD

no live price

SEA

no live price

BookSDSEABest edge
DraftKings-186+141+0.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Fri, May 15·Final/SeriesSD wins series 3-0/VegasSEA -136

Recap · MLB

San Diego Padres went into Seattle Mariners and beat them, 2–0.

SD +1.5 cashed (SEA lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 7.0 by 5.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SD · top performer

SD
Gavin Sheets

Gavin Sheets

1B

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

SEA · top performer

SEA
Randy Arozarena

Randy Arozarena

LF

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · San Diego Padres at Seattle Mariners · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SD26-18
2
0
SEA22-24
SD26-18·SEA22-24
SD

SD

26-18

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. MerrillJ. Merrill★CF
0-44000003
F. Tatis Jr.F. Tatis Jr.★RF
0-44000000
M. MachadoM. Machado★3B
0-44000001
G. SheetsG. Sheets★1B
2-33120011
SPRINT26.735
X. BogaertsX. Bogaerts★SS
2-44020000
SPRINT27.148
M. AndujarM. Andujar★DH
2-44121000
SPRINT26.530
R. LaureanoR. Laureano★LF
2-44020001
SPRINT2872
S. SongS. Song★2B
1-44011000
F. FerminF. Fermin★C
0-33000001
Team9-3434292017
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. VasquezR. Vasquez★SP
6.0400030
A. MorejonA. MorejonRP
1.0000110
J. AdamJ. AdamRP
0.2100110
M. MillerM. MillerRP
1.1200140
Team9.0700390
SEA

SEA

22-24

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. DonovanB. Donovan★3B
1-55010002
SPRINT25.18
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
0-33000011
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
1-44010000
SPRINT23.81
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
2-44020000
SPRINT26.941
L. RaleyL. Raley★RF
0-11000000
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
0-33000010
D. CanzoneD. Canzone★DH
1-22010000
SPRINT25.920
C. YoungC. Young★2B
2-44020000
SPRINT27.662
J. PeredaJ. Pereda★C
0-33000002
C. JoeC. JoeRF
0-11000011
R. RefsnyderR. RefsnyderDH
0-22000002
M. GarverM. GarverC
0-11000001
Team7-3333070039
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. HancockE. Hancock★SP
6.0511160
C. CriswellC. CriswellRP
1.0211000
J. FerrerJ. FerrerRP
1.0000010
A. HoppeA. HoppeRP
1.0200000
Team9.0922170

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SD

  • A. Morejon
    13 pitches·38% CSW
    • SI
      46%·99.1 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      23%·88.1 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      15%·91.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      15%·97.9 mph·100% whiff
  • J. Adam
    10 pitches·40% CSW
    • CH
      30%·87.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      30%·92.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      30%·83.6 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      10%·76.1 mph·— whiff

SEA

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

7

2

Runs

0

0

Errors

1

Current series

SD wins series 3-0

May 16SDSD2@SEASEA0today
May 16SDSD7@SEASEA4
May 17SDSD8@SEASEA3

Season series

SD leads series 4-0

Apr 15SEASEA1@SDSD4
Apr 16SEASEA6@SDSD7
Apr 17SEASEA2@SDSD5
May 16SDSD2@SEASEA0today
May 16SDSD7@SEASEA4
May 17SDSD8@SEASEA3

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SEA -1.5

↗1.5pt· 6.1h

Total

7.0

Defensive · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SDSD+11347%
SEASEA-13658%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

7.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSD ↔ SEA

Biggest swing: 16pp · Top 4th Inning

SDSD
G. Sheets

G. Sheets

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.417 OPS

R. Vasquez

R. Vasquez

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 4 H

SEASEA
R. Arozarena

R. Arozarena

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

E. Hancock

E. Hancock

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

How it ended

SD beat SEA 2-0.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

SEA vs SD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SEABottom 2nd Inning · 0-0
+12pp→ 56% WP

Arozarena · flied out to center.

SDTop 4th Inning · 1-0
+16pp→ 59% WP

Andujar · doubled to left, Sheets scored.

SDTop 9th Inning · 2-0
+15pp→ 95% WP

Sheets · singled to left.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SD0001001002
SEA0000000000

Period scoring

SD won 2 · SEA won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Andujar 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Song 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

SD
SEA

Play-by-play · 540 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    SD 2·SEA 0

  2. B9

    · ·

    SD 2·SEA 0

  3. B9

    Donovan struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SD 2·SEA 0

    −8pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    SD 2·SEA 0

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SD 2·SEA 0

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SD 2·SEA 0

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SD 2·SEA 0

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    SD 2·SEA 0

  9. B9

    Mason Miller pitches to Brendan Donovan

    · ·

    SD 2·SEA 0

  10. B9

    · ·

    SD 2·SEA 0

  11. B9

    Garver struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SD 2·SEA 0

    −8pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    SD 2·SEA 0

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    SD 2·SEA 0

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SD 2·SEA 0

  15. B9

    Mason Miller pitches to Mitch Garver

    · ·

    SD 2·SEA 0

  16. B9

    Garver hit for Pereda

    ·

    SD 2·SEA 0

  17. B9

    · ·

    SD 2·SEA 0

  18. B9

    Young singled to right, Crawford to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SD 2·SEA 0

    +8pp

  19. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SD 2·SEA 0

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SD 2·SEA 0

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SD 2·SEA 0

  22. B9

    Mason Miller pitches to Cole Young

    · ·

    SD 2·SEA 0

  23. B9

    · ·

    SD 2·SEA 0

  24. B9

    Refsnyder struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SD 2·SEA 0

    −7pp

  25. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    SD 2·SEA 0

  26. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    SD 2·SEA 0

  27. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SD 2·SEA 0

  28. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    SD 2·SEA 0

  29. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SD 2·SEA 0

  30. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    SD 2·SEA 0

Team stats

SD

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

2

Runs

0

9

Hits

7

0

Errors

1

10

TB

8

0

HR

0

1

BB

3

7

K

9

16

LOB

20

Betting line

SEA -1.5·O/U 7·SD +113/SEA -136

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.20

CLV pp

Open price

+119

Close price

+113

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 15 players in cohort
  • Jackson MerrillSD · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Luke RaleySEA · RF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

SEA vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Michael KingSD
    5.7± 2.2low
  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low
  • Emerson HancockSEA
    5.5± 4.3low

Hits

  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Josh NaylorSEA
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.0± 1.8high
  • Gavin SheetsSD
    1.8± 3.1high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    1.8± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    0.7± 1.0high
  • Gavin SheetsSD
    0.6± 1.3high
  • Manny MachadoSD
    0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.8± 2.9low
  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • Yu DarvishSD
    2.6± 1.2medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.5%

ensemble · SD favored

  • Elo Static

    48.3%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    48.9%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    49.0%

    P(SEA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.31 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 966 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Mar 26, 26sim 93
    23
    17(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 22, 26sim 93
    51
    22(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 23, 26sim 93
    50
    22(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 5, 26sim 93
    80
    24(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 12, 26sim 93
    222
    2(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 6, 26sim 92
    53
    7(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs