MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+6TB

37-23

MIA

29-35

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 974 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida

10,312 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

MIA spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

MIA no-vig %

44.9%

open 43.7% · +1.2

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

40.9%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
47.2%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
42.7%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
47.4%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

2.16 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.20

CLV pp

Open price

+119

Close price

+113

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Market came to the model · Graded: miss

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+24.3pp

best edge · MIA · DraftKings

no live price

MIA

★ best

+463DraftKings

edge +24.3pp · implied 16.7%

Book	TB	MIA	Best edge
DraftKings	-780	+463★	+24.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

MIA vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

Max MeyerMIA
6.5± 1.9low
Drew RasmussenTB
5.2± 2.5low
Shane McClanahanTB
4.9± 2.0low

Hits

Otto LopezMIA
1.3± 1.3high
Xavier EdwardsMIA
1.2± 1.0high
Yandy DiazTB
1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

Yandy DiazTB
2.2± 2.6high
Jonathan ArandaTB
2.0± 2.2high
Kyle StowersMIA
1.8± 1.9high

RBIs

Heriberto HernandezMIA
0.9± 1.4high
Ryan ViladeTB
0.8± 1.3high
Owen CaissieMIA
0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

Sandy AlcantaraMIA
3.7± 3.7low
Steven MatzTB
2.8± 2.5low
Drew RasmussenTB
2.1± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

TB 6 · MIA 0 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TB +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TB	3	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	6
MIA	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
C. Simpson★LF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0
J. Caminero★3B	3-3	3	3	3	0	0	2	0	28.1
SPRINT25.716
J. Aranda★1B	1-3	3	0	1	1	0	2	0	3.1
Y. Diaz★DH	3-5	5	1	3	0	0	0	0	11.1
SPRINT25.716
R. Palacios★2B	1-4	4	1	1	2	0	1	1	21.1
SPRINT26.838
R. Vilade★RF	2-5	5	0	2	2	0	0	1	7.0
SPRINT28.483
C. Mullins★CF	1-4	4	1	1	1	1	0	1	2.6
SPRINT27.662
N. Fortes★C	0-5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	1.7
T. Walls★SS	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	2	0.4
V. Mesa Jr.CF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.4
Team	12-38	38	6	12	6	1	5	6	—

Batting

Analytics

Player

C. Simpson★LF

0-2

0.0

J. Caminero★3B

3-3

28.1

J. Aranda★1B

1-3

3.1

Y. Diaz★DH

3-5

11.1

R. Palacios★2B

1-4

21.1

R. Vilade★RF

2-5

7.0

C. Mullins★CF

1-4

2.6

N. Fortes★C

0-5

1.7

T. Walls★SS

1-4

0.4

V. Mesa Jr.CF

0-3

0.4

Team

12-38

—

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Pitching	Analytics
D. Rasmussen★SP	7.0	1	0	0	0	9	0	14.6
C. BooserRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0.5
C. SulserRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	0	0.2
Team	9.0	2	0	0	1	14	0	—

Pitching

Analytics

Player

D. Rasmussen★SP

7.0

14.6

C. BooserRP

1.0

0.5

C. SulserRP

1.0

0.2

Team

9.0

—

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
L. Hicks★C	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	1.8
SPRINT25.614
O. Lopez★SS	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2	3.5
SPRINT28.381
K. Stowers★LF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2	2.1
SPRINT2622
X. Edwards★2B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1.7
J. Sanoja★3B	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	1	3.6
SPRINT28.381
O. Caissie★RF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	3	3.6
J. Marsee★CF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	1	1	2.0
J. Mack★C	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.2
E. Ruiz★RF	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	2	1.6
Team	2-29	29	0	2	0	0	1	14	—

Batting

Analytics

Player