MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

BOT 7TH+2PHI

PHI

19-22

BOS

17-23

Live · model leanBot 7thPolls every 30s

61.8%

PHI wins · current

Pre-game: 51.0% PHI

PHI 2 · 0 BOS

PHI +2

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 7

away leadsBOS leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingBOSBottom 7th Inning · 2-0
+8pp→ 32% WP
Gasper · singled to right.
SwingPHIBottom 2nd Inning · 2-0
+7pp→ 76% WP
Story · grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Yoshida out at second.
SwingPHITop 2nd Inning · 2-0
+9pp→ 76% WP
Stott · hit a ground rule double, Marsh scored.
SwingPHITop 1st Inning · 1-0
+11pp→ 65% WP
Schwarber · homered to right center (386 feet).

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 6.03

Z. Wheeler

1-0 · 3.12 ERA

J. Moran

0-0 · 2.91 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

BOS spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

BOS no-vig %

42.8%

open 43.7% · -0.9

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BOS favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.7%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
49.0%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
49.2%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
47.8%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.62 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

81% confidence

Win prob · home

1.7%

-47.3ppvs pre-game · PHI favored

Leverage

low

Mostly decided · home ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

Receipts

The receipts

Why we like BOS.

BOS's edge is driven by venue split. Venue split keeps it from reading cleaner.

+4.1

pp edge · BOS

0.00

CLV pp

Pass

48.4%

±6.0pp band

Pass — model probability is at or below the coin flip line.

Edge

+3.5pp

-0.6pp post-cal

Kelly

—

no stake

Decimal

2.13

+1.5pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 4.1pp · BOS over PHI

▼
Venue split70% conf
PHI's venue form trims BOS's edge by 12.7pp.
-0.6pp
▼
Model confidence68% conf
BOS is a lean, so the confidence layer stays modest.
-0.5pp
▼
Line steam66% conf
The market moved 0.9pp away from BOS since open.
-0.3pp
▼
Head to head48% conf
PHI has controlled the recent head-to-head sample.
-0.2pp

Open price

+119

Close price

+119

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Line barely moved

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+22.3pp

best edge · BOS · DraftKings

PHI

no live price

BOS

★ best

+252DraftKings

edge +22.3pp · implied 26.7%

Book	PHI	BOS	Best edge
DraftKings	-355	+252★	+22.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

BOS vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 57 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cristopher SanchezPHI
7.4± 2.5low
Jesus LuzardoPHI
7.1± 3.7low
Payton TolleBOS
6.7± 4.6low

Hits

Brandon MarshPHI
1.6± 1.1high
Bryce HarperPHI
1.1± 1.2high
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

Kyle SchwarberPHI
2.5± 3.0high
Bryce HarperPHI
2.4± 3.2high
Brandon MarshPHI
2.1± 1.5high

RBIs

Alec BohmPHI
0.8± 1.2high
Bryson StottPHI
0.8± 1.3high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Brayan BelloBOS
3.9± 3.1low
Andrew PainterPHI
3.6± 3.3low
Jesus LuzardoPHI
3.6± 4.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelTossup

Tue, May 12

PHI★

Phillies

23-22

vs51.0%PHI

BOS

Red Sox

17-27

PHI 51.0%win prob49.0% BOS

PHI 1522 · BOS 1490Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
T. Turner★SS	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
SPRINT29.798
K. Schwarber★DH	1-3	3	1	1	1	1	0	0
SPRINT25.818
B. Harper★1B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. Garcia★RF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Marsh★LF	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT28.175
J.T. Realmuto★C	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Stott★2B	2-3	3	0	2	1	0	0	0
SPRINT28.688
A. Bohm★3B	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT26.632
J. Crawford★CF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
Team	5-26	26	2	5	2	1	1	7

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

0-3

1-3

0-3

0-3

1-3

0-3

2-3

1-3

0-2

Team

5-26

	Pitching
Z. Wheeler★SP	6.0	3	0	0	0	4	0
Team	6.0	3	0	0	0	4	0

Pitching

Player

Z. Wheeler★SP

6.0

Team

6.0

	Batting
J. Duran★LF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
SPRINT29.294
M. Gasper★C	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
W. Abreu★RF	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT2872
M. Yoshida★DH	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
SPRINT26.123
T. Story★SS	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Rafaela★CF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Mayer★2B	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT27.560
C. Narvaez★C	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Durbin★3B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team	3-19	19	0	3	0	0	0	4

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI