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THE ONE Analytics
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CIN logo
CIN
3
LiveBot 5th
STL logo
STL
4
Updated 9:57 PM ET
Live read

Walker doubled to center, Burleson scored. → win prob 65→79% STL

BOT 5TH+1STL↑
CIN

CIN

31-30

3
4
STL

STL

32-28

MLB · At bat

Bottom 5·0-0·2 outs

Pitcher· CIN

B. Burke

0.2 IP, 1 K, 0 ER

Batter· STL

M. Winn

0-1, 1 K

LastBrock Burke pitches to Masyn Winn

Live · model leanBot 5thPolls every 30s

57.4%

STL wins · current

Pre-game: 53.6% STL

CIN 3 · 4 STL

STL +1

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 5
away leadsSTL leads

Key moments · live

newest first
  • ↑SwingSTLBottom 5th Inning · 3-4
    +14pp→ 79% WP

    Walker · doubled to center, Burleson scored.

  • ◆ClutchSTLTop 5th Inning · 3-3
    +11pp→ 64% WP

    Steer · grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Bleday out at second.

  • ↑SwingSTLBottom 3rd Inning · 3-3
    +12pp→ 66% WP

    Burleson · homered to right center (387 feet).

  • ↑SwingSTLBottom 1st Inning · 3-1
    +10pp→ 45% WP

    Herrera · scored on error, Torres safe at first on error by first baseman Stewart, Burleson to second. Cincinnati Reds challenged call on the field was upheld

  • ↺Lead flipCINTop 1st Inning · 2-0
    +18pp→ 59% WP

    Stewart · doubled to center, Steer scored and Dunn scored.

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 10.43

B. Singer

2-5 · 6.18 ERA

vs

K. Leahy

5-3 · 4.25 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

STL spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

STL no-vig %

56.3%

open 55.1% · +1.2

-1.0-2.0STL SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.5TOTAL60.3%51.1%STL NO-VIG %MODEL 53.6%Jun 4, 6 PMJun 5, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = STL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown
Live model · pick
Receipts
Line shop
Player props
The One modelTossup
● Live
CIN3

CIN

Reds

37-32

vs53.6%STL

STL★

Cardinals

34-28

STL3
CIN 46.4%win prob53.6% STL
STL 1504 · CIN 1499Box score→

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

53%Last 7 · 54-47
60%Last 30 · 308-205
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+2.8pp

best edge · CIN · DraftKings

CIN

★ best
+119DraftKings

edge +2.8pp · implied 43.6%

STL

no live price

BookCINSTLBest edge
DraftKings+119★-144+2.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Live · 9
  • MLBBot 5
    CIN 3@STL 4
    +32.2ppmedium
  • MLBBot 6
    CLE 2@TEX 3
    +40.1ppmedium
  • MLBTop 2
    NYM 1@SD 0
    -33.6ppmedium
  • MLBMid 2
    KC 2@MIN 0
    -45.2pplow
  • MLBBot 4
    MIL 1@COL 3
    +62.5ppmedium
  • MLBEnd 1
    WSH 2@ARI 0
    -41.4pplow
  • MLBBot 6
    ATH 1@HOU 5
    +42.0pplow
  • MLBEnd 9
    BAL 13@TOR 3
    -53.8pplow
  • NBAHalftime
    NY 56@SA 52
MLB·Fri, Jun 5·Bot 5th/Seriestied 1-1/VegasSTL -144
Updated 0s ago
Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1A. BurlesonSTL+33.0pp
  2. 2B. SingerCIN−19.0pp
  3. 3K. LeahySTL−13.8pp

CIN · top performer

CIN
Edwin Arroyo

Edwin Arroyo

SS

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

STL · top performer

STL
Alec Burleson

Alec Burleson

1B

2.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

3

R

1

RBI

MLB · Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals · live

MLB · Box scoreADVANCED

Bot 5th
CIN31-30
3
4
STL32-28
CIN31-30·STL32-28
CIN

CIN

31-30

3
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
B. DunnB. Dunn★RF
1-3311000013.6
J. BledayJ. Bleday★LF
1-330100009.3
SPRINT27.457
S. SteerS. Steer★LF
0-221000108.5
SPRINT28.483
S. StewartS. Stewart★1B
2-3312200111.2
SPRINT26.530
N. LoweN. Lowe★DH
0-220000005.3
E. SuarezE. Suarez★DH
1-220110016.7
SPRINT25.818
N. MarteN. Marte★RF
0-220000002.1
T. StephensonT. Stephenson★C
0-220000003.0
E. ArroyoE. Arroyo★SS
1-110100108.8
Team6-2020363022—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
B. SingerB. Singer★SP
4.044236119.0
B. BurkeB. BurkeRP
0.21000107.0
Team4.2542371—
STL

STL

32-28

4
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
L. NootbaarL. Nootbaar★LF
1-330100000.8
I. HerreraI. Herrera★DH
0-221000101.5
SPRINT25.513
A. BurlesonA. Burleson★1B
2-3332110033.0
SPRINT25.513
J. WalkerJ. Walker★RF
2-330210011.2
SPRINT28.891
B. TorresB. Torres★LF
0-3300000110.4
M. WinnM. Winn★SS
0-110000115.1
N. GormanN. Gorman★3B
0-220000020.4
J. CrooksJ. Crooks★C
0-220000014.7
V. Scott IIV. Scott II★CF
0-110000113.6
Team5-2020452137—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
K. LeahyK. Leahy★SP
4.053321013.8
H. DobbinsH. DobbinsSP
1.01000105.5
Team5.0633220—

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

5

3

Runs

4

3

Errors

0

Season series

Series tied 1-1

May 22STLSTL0@CINCIN0
May 23STLSTL8@CINCIN1
May 23STLSTL6@CINCIN7
May 24STLSTL0@CINCIN0
Jun 6CINCIN@STLSTLtoday
Jun 6CINCIN@STLSTLupcoming
Jun 7CINCIN@STLSTLupcoming
Jul 25CINCIN@STLSTLupcoming
Jul 25CINCIN@STLSTLupcoming
Jul 26CINCIN@STLSTLupcoming
Aug 17STLSTL@CINCINupcoming
Aug 17STLSTL@CINCINupcoming
Aug 18STLSTL@CINCINupcoming
Aug 19STLSTL@CINCINupcoming
Aug 20STLSTL@CINCINupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

STL -1.5

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CINCIN+11946%
STLSTL-14459%

↘7· 6.4h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet STL -1.5↗SpreadBet STL -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.0

0.0 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats
CINCINSP
B. Singer

B. Singer

#51 · 2-5

ERA

6.18

K

36

SV

—

Last 3 starts

5/30vsATLATL5.0 IP · 3 ER · 2 KL(2-5)
5/17@CLECLE4.0 IP · 5 ER · 6 KL(2-4)
5/12vsWSHWSH3.2 IP · 3 ER · 2 KL(2-3)
VS
STLSTLSP
K. Leahy

K. Leahy

#62 · 5-3

ERA

4.25

K

46

SV

—

Last 3 starts

5/30vsCHCCHC4.1 IP · 1 ER · 4 K-
5/23@CINCIN5.0 IP · 5 ER · 8 K-
5/16vsKCKC6.0 IP · 1 ER · 2 KW(5-3)

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order
CINCIN2L · 6R · 1S
  1. 1

    B. Dunn

    CF · #59

    R
  2. 2

    J. Bleday

    LF · #22

    L
  3. 3

    S. Steer

    2B · #7

    R
  4. 4

    S. Stewart

    1B · #27

    R
  5. 5

    N. Lowe

    DH · #31

    L
  6. 6

    E. Suarez

    3B · #28

    R
  7. 7

    N. Marte

    RF · #4

    R
  8. 8

    T. Stephenson

    C · #37

    R
  9. 9

    E. Arroyo

    SS · #2

    B
STLSTL6L · 3R
  1. 1

    L. Nootbaar

    LF · #21

    L
  2. 2

    I. Herrera

    DH · #48

    R
  3. 3

    A. Burleson

    1B · #41

    L
  4. 4

    J. Walker

    RF · #18

    R
  5. 5

    B. Torres

    2B · #39

    L
  6. 6

    M. Winn

    SS · #0

    R
  7. 7

    N. Gorman

    3B · #16

    L
  8. 8

    J. Crooks

    C · #8

    L
  9. 9

    V. Scott II

    CF · #11

    L

Live · top performers so far

Bot 5th
Game flowCIN ↔ STL

Recent swing: 14pp · Bottom 5th Inning

Just happened

Brock Burke · pitches to Masyn Winn

CINCIN
E. Arroyo

E. Arroyo

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

B. Singer

B. Singer

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 6 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 11 K · 4 ER

STLSTL
A. Burleson

A. Burleson

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.333 OPS

K. Leahy

K. Leahy

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 1 K · 3 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 2 K · 5 ER

How it's going

STL lead CIN 4-3 (Bot 5th). Stewart's play in the top 1st inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Win probability

STL vs CIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CINTop 1st Inning · 2-0
+18pp→ 59% WP

Stewart · doubled to center, Steer scored and Dunn scored.

STLBottom 3rd Inning · 3-3
+12pp→ 66% WP

Burleson · homered to right center (387 feet).

STLBottom 5th Inning · 3-4
+14pp→ 79% WP

Walker · doubled to center, Burleson scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team12345R
CIN300003
STL201014

Period scoring

CIN won 1 · STL won 2

3
2

Inn 1

Stewart 2

Herrera 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Burleson 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
1

Inn 5

Walker 1

CIN
STL

Play-by-play · 358 plays

period
event
player
  1. B5

    Brock Burke pitches to Masyn Winn

    · ·

    CIN 3·STL 4

  2. B5

    · ·

    CIN 3·STL 4

  3. B5

    Torres struck out swinging.

    · ·

    CIN 3·STL 4

    −3pp

  4. B5

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    CIN 3·STL 4

  5. B5

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    · ·

    CIN 3·STL 4

  6. B5

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CIN 3·STL 4

  7. B5

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CIN 3·STL 4

  8. B5

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CIN 3·STL 4

  9. B5

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    CIN 3·STL 4

  10. B5

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CIN 3·STL 4

  11. B5

    Brock Burke pitches to Bryan Torres

    · ·

    CIN 3·STL 4

  12. B5

    ·

    CIN 3·STL 4

  13. B5

    Walker doubled to center, Burleson scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CIN 3·STL 4

    +14pp

  14. B5

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CIN 3·STL 4

  15. B5

    Burleson to second on pickoff error by pitcher Burke.

    ·

    CIN 3·STL 3

  16. B5

    Burleson to second on pickoff error by pitcher Burke.

    ·

    CIN 3·STL 3

  17. B5

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    CIN 3·STL 3

  18. B5

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CIN 3·STL 3

  19. B5

    Brock Burke pitches to Jordan Walker

    · ·

    CIN 3·STL 4

  20. B5

    ·

    CIN 3·STL 3

  21. B5

    Burleson grounded into fielder's choice to second, Herrera out at second.

    · ·

    CIN 3·STL 3

    −4pp

  22. B5

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CIN 3·STL 3

  23. B5

    Brock Burke pitches to Alec Burleson

    · ·

    CIN 3·STL 3

  24. B5

    Burke relieved Singer

    ·

    CIN 3·STL 3

  25. B5

    ·

    CIN 3·STL 3

  26. B5

    Herrera walked.

    ·

    CIN 3·STL 3

    +5pp

  27. B5

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    ·

    CIN 3·STL 3

  28. B5

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    CIN 3·STL 3

  29. B5

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CIN 3·STL 3

  30. B5

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    CIN 3·STL 3

Team stats

CIN

Away

Stat

STL

Home

3

Runs

4

6

Hits

5

3

Errors

0

7

TB

9

0

HR

1

2

BB

3

2

K

7

9

LOB

13

Betting line

STL -1.5·O/U 9·CIN +119/STL -144

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 12 players in cohort
  • Noelvi MarteCIN · RF
    SPRINT28.992
  • Jordan WalkerSTL · RF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Spencer SteerCIN · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Masyn WinnSTL · SS
    SPRINT2872

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

86.4%

+32.2ppvs pre-game · STL favored

Leverage

±5.9

pp · next play

medium · 35/100

1-point game · home ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 975 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 31, 26sim 98
    161
    24(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 30, 26sim 97
    166
    24(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jun 3, 26sim 97
    133
    24(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jun 1, 26sim 96
    132
    24(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jun 4, 26sim 96
    235
    18(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 26, 26sim 95
    95
    4(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Recent pitches · last 8

ESPN PBP · live
  1. DoubleCH 87#3
  2. BallSL 87#1
  3. Foul BallSL 86#2
  4. Foul BallSI 94#3
  5. BallSL 89#4
  6. Foul BallSL 87#5
  7. BallFF 97#6
  8. Strike SwingingSL 87#7

Player projections

STL vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.6± 3.8low
  • Dustin MaySTL
    5.2± 3.4low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    5.1± 3.4low

Hits

  • Nelson VelazquezSTL
    1.2± 1.1low
  • JJ BledayCIN
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Spencer SteerCIN
    1.1± 0.6high

Total bases

  • JJ BledayCIN
    2.5± 2.1high
  • Nelson VelazquezSTL
    2.0± 2.7low
  • Spencer SteerCIN
    1.9± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Nelson VelazquezSTL
    0.8± 1.8low
  • JJ BledayCIN
    0.7± 0.8high
  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Chris PaddackCIN
    3.5± 3.4low
  • Brady SingerCIN
    3.2± 1.8low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    3.2± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.6%

ensemble · STL favored

  • Elo Static

    54.2%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    56.5%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    54.7%

    P(STL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.98 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.