MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

Dubón homered to left (405 feet), Albies scored. → win prob 41→63% ATL

TOP 4THTied

PIT

34-29

ATL

42-21

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 971 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

MLB · At bat

Top 42-22 outs

Pitcher· ATL

M. Perez

3.2 IP, 3 K, 3 ER

Batter· PIT

J. Triolo

1-1

LastPitch 4 : Ball 2

Live · model leanTop 4thPolls every 30s

56.3%

ATL wins · current

Pre-game: 65.8% ATL

PIT 3 · 3 ATL

Tied

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 4

away leadsATL leads

Key moments · live

newest first

Lead flipATLBottom 3rd Inning · 3-3
+21pp→ 63% WP
Dub · ón homered to left (405 feet), Albies scored.
SwingPITTop 3rd Inning · 3-1
+11pp→ 63% WP
Ozuna · singled to center, Gonzales scored, Lowe to third.
SwingPITTop 3rd Inning · 0-1
+12pp→ 44% WP
Triolo · doubled to center, Horwitz to third.
SwingATLBottom 2nd Inning · 0-1
+10pp→ 74% WP
Acu · ña Jr. singled to right, Riley scored, Yastrzemski to third.

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 7.14

M. Keller

5-2 · 4.35 ERA

M. Perez

3-3 · 2.79 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

ATL spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

ATL no-vig %

56.3%

open 56.3%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

66.0%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
64.7%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
66.6%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
63.5%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.28 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

56.5%

-8.2ppvs pre-game · ATL favored

Calibrated · at ~55% reads, home has won 54% (451)

Leverage

±9.3

pp · next play

high · 66/100

Tied · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.85

CLV pp

Open price

-143

Close price

-149

Open no-vig

56.3%

Close no-vig

57.2%

Market came to the model

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+9.4pp

best edge · ATL · DraftKings

PIT

no live price

ATL

★ best

-144DraftKings

edge +9.4pp · implied 56.4%

Book	PIT	ATL	Best edge
DraftKings	+119	-144★	+9.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

ATL vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.5± 2.0low
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.9± 2.8low
Spencer StriderATL
6.7± 2.6low

Hits

Ozzie AlbiesATL
1.3± 1.1high
Michael Harris IIATL
1.2± 1.4high
Bryan ReynoldsPIT
1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

Matt OlsonATL
2.3± 2.0high
Michael Harris IIATL
2.1± 2.6high
Ozzie AlbiesATL
2.1± 2.4high

RBIs

Oneil CruzPIT
0.9± 1.3high
Ronald Acuna Jr.ATL
0.8± 1.3high
Brandon LowePIT
0.8± 1.2high

Earned runs

Mitch KellerPIT
3.0± 3.1low
Bubba ChandlerPIT
2.7± 2.3low
Grant HolmesATL
2.3± 1.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One model★ Lock

● Live

PIT

Pirates

34-32

vs65.8%ATL

ATL★

Braves

47-22

PIT 34.2%win prob65.8% ATL

ATL 1576 · PIT 1495Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
N. Gonzales★3B	1-2	2	1	1	1	0	0	1	17.5
SPRINT28.586
B. Lowe★2B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	4.1
B. Reynolds★LF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	4.8
M. Ozuna★DH	1-2	2	0	1	1	0	0	0	8.2
SPRINT25.614
O. Cruz★CF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	5.8
J. Garcia★RF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	3.5
S. Horwitz★1B	0-1	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	14.8
SPRINT24.85
J. Triolo★SS	1-1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	20.2
SPRINT28.483
H. Davis★C	0-0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.8
SPRINT27.765
Team	3-13	13	3	3	3	0	2	3	—

Batting

Analytics

Player

N. Gonzales★3B

1-2

17.5

B. Lowe★2B

0-1

4.1

B. Reynolds★LF

0-2

4.8

M. Ozuna★DH

1-2

8.2

O. Cruz★CF

0-2

5.8

J. Garcia★RF

0-2

3.5

S. Horwitz★1B

0-1

14.8

J. Triolo★SS

1-1

20.2

H. Davis★C

0-0

0.8

Team

3-13

—

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Pitching	Analytics
M. Keller★SP	3.0	3	3	3	3	3	1	23.8
Team	3.0	3	3	3	3	3	1	—

Pitching

Analytics

Player

M. Keller★SP

3.0

23.8

Team

3.0

—

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
R. Acuna Jr.★RF	1-2	2	0	1	1	0	0	0	5.6
SPRINT26.838
M. Harris II★CF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	4.5
M. Olson★1B	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.9
SPRINT25.513
O. Albies★2B	0-0	0	1	0	0	0	2	0	25.8
SPRINT27.354
M. Dubon★SS	1-2	2	1	1	2	1	0	0	21.4
SPRINT26.428
D. Smith★DH	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	4.0
A. Riley★3B	0-1	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	10.1
SPRINT27.765
M. Yastrzemski★LF	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.2
S. Leon★C	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	3.4
Team	3-12	12	3	3	3	1	3	3	—

Batting

Analytics

Player