MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

García Jr. homered to right (363 feet), Wood scored. → win prob 46→61% WSH

TOP 3RD+2WSH

WSH

31-32

ARI

33-29

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 976 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

MLB · At bat

Top 30-10 outs

Pitcher· ARI

M. Kelly

2.0 IP, 1 K, 2 ER

Batter· WSH

J. Wood

0-0

Live · model leanTop 3rdPolls every 30s

58.3%

WSH wins · current

Pre-game: 57.7% ARI

WSH 2 · 0 ARI

WSH +2

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 2

away leadsARI leads

Key moments · live

newest first

Lead flipWSHTop 1st Inning · 2-0
+15pp→ 61% WP
Garc · ía Jr. homered to right (363 feet), Wood scored.

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 8.82

F. Griffin

6-2 · 3.76 ERA

M. Kelly

5-3 · 5.06 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

ARI spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

ARI no-vig %

55.1%

open 55.1%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ARI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.0%

ensemble · ARI favored

Elo Static
57.9%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
56.3%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
57.3%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.66 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

6.9%

-51.0ppvs pre-game · WSH favored

Leverage

±3.7

pp · next play

low · 15/100

Mostly decided · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-136

Close price

-136

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Line barely moved

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+1.8pp

best edge · ARI · DraftKings

WSH

no live price

ARI

★ best

-141DraftKings

edge +1.8pp · implied 55.9%

Book	WSH	ARI	Best edge
DraftKings	+117	-141★	+1.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

ARI vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cade CavalliWSH
6.1± 4.1low
Michael SorokaARI
5.4± 3.4low
Foster GriffinWSH
5.4± 3.4low

Hits

Corbin CarrollARI
1.1± 1.1high
Ketel MarteARI
1.1± 1.4high
James WoodWSH
1.1± 1.4high

Total bases

Ketel MarteARI
2.2± 2.2high
James WoodWSH
2.1± 2.6high
Corbin CarrollARI
2.0± 2.4high

RBIs

Ketel MarteARI
1.0± 1.2high
Curtis MeadWSH
0.8± 1.3high
Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

Merrill KellyARI
3.3± 3.3low
Zac GallenARI
3.1± 2.3low
Ryne NelsonARI
2.9± 3.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelLean

● Live

WSH

Nationals

34-36

vs57.7%ARI

ARI★

Diamondbacks

35-33

WSH 42.3%win prob57.7% ARI

ARI 1505 · WSH 1474Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
J. Wood★RF	0-0	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	15.3
SPRINT27.457
L. Garcia Jr.★1B	1-1	1	1	1	2	1	0	0	15.3
SPRINT26.735
J. Tena★DH	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2.2
SPRINT27.662
C. Abrams★SS	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1.7
SPRINT28.483
D. Lile★LF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0
SPRINT29.395
J. Vivas★3B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.6
D. Crews★RF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1.5
D. Millas★C	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1.2
N. Nunez★2B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0
Team	1-7	7	2	1	2	1	1	1	—

Batting

Analytics

Player

J. Wood★RF

0-0

15.3

L. Garcia Jr.★1B

1-1

15.3

J. Tena★DH

0-1

2.2

C. Abrams★SS

0-1

1.7

D. Lile★LF

0-1

0.0

J. Vivas★3B

0-1

0.6

D. Crews★RF

0-1

1.5

D. Millas★C

0-0

1.2

N. Nunez★2B

0-1

0.0

Team

1-7

—

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Pitching	Analytics
F. Griffin★SP	2.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	8.9
Team	2.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	—

Pitching

Analytics

Player

F. Griffin★SP

2.0

8.9

Team

2.0

—

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
K. Marte★2B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1.7
SPRINT26.225
R. Waldschmidt★CF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2.1
C. Carroll★RF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0
SPRINT29.496
N. Arenado★3B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1.5
SPRINT25.29
L. Groover★3B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2.1
G. Perdomo★SS	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1.5
T. Troy★LF	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0
A. Garcia★C	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15.3
J. Barrosa★CF	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0
Team	0-6	6	0	0	0	0	0	1	—

Batting

Analytics

Player