MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

Walker tripled to right, Alvarez scored. → win prob 87→93% HOU

TOP 6TH+4HOU

ATH

30-32

HOU

28-36

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 975 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

MLB · At bat

Top 60-21 out

Pitcher· HOU

P. Lambert

5.1 IP, 4 K, 1 ER

Batter· ATH

H. Bolte

2-2

LastPitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

Live · model leanTop 6thPolls every 30s

72.6%

HOU wins · current

Pre-game: 56.7% HOU

ATH 1 · 5 HOU

HOU +4

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 6

away leadsHOU leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingHOUBottom 3rd Inning · 0-4
+6pp→ 93% WP
Walker · tripled to right, Alvarez scored.
SwingHOUTop 2nd Inning · 0-3
+7pp→ 80% WP
McNeil · struck out swinging.
SwingHOUBottom 1st Inning · 0-3
+20pp→ 83% WP
Paredes · homered to left center (376 feet), Peña scored and Alvarez scored.

Daikin Park · Houston, Texas

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 9.23

J. Perkins

2-2 · 5.46 ERA

P. Lambert

4-4 · 3.77 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

HOU spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

HOU no-vig %

50.0%

open 48.9% · +1.1

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = HOU favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.8%

ensemble · HOU favored

Elo Static
57.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
59.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
57.6%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.83 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

99.0%

+42.0ppvs pre-game · HOU favored

Leverage

±2.4

pp · next play

low · 3/100

Mostly decided · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.08

CLV pp

Open price

-105

Close price

-110

Open no-vig

48.9%

Close no-vig

50.0%

Market came to the model

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+5.6pp

best edge · HOU · DraftKings

ATH

no live price

HOU

★ best

-115DraftKings

edge +5.6pp · implied 51.1%

Book	ATH	HOU	Best edge
DraftKings	-105	-115★	+5.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

HOU vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

116

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

Peter LambertHOU
5.4± 2.7low
Spencer ArrighettiHOU
5.1± 3.3low
J.T. GinnATH
4.8± 3.6low

Hits

Jeremy PenaHOU
1.5± 1.0high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
1.4± 1.4high
Tyler SoderstromATH
1.2± 0.7high

Total bases

Yordan AlvarezHOU
3.0± 3.2high
Tyler SoderstromATH
2.3± 2.0high
Jeremy PenaHOU
2.3± 2.0high

RBIs

Yordan AlvarezHOU
1.1± 1.5high
Christian WalkerHOU
0.9± 1.4high
Isaac ParedesHOU
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Mike BurrowsHOU
3.6± 2.8low
Jeffrey SpringsATH
2.9± 2.5low
Tatsuya ImaiHOU
2.6± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelLean

● Live

ATH

Athletics

30-39

vs56.7%HOU

HOU★

Astros

33-41

ATH 43.3%win prob56.7% HOU

HOU 1492 · ATH 1468Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
C. Cortes★RF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	2.2
SPRINT25.716
S. Langeliers★C	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	3.8
SPRINT28.586
N. Kurtz★1B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	1.9
B. Rooker★DH	1-3	3	1	1	1	1	0	1	1.8
SPRINT27.148
T. Soderstrom★LF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.8
H. Bolte★CF	2-2	2	0	2	0	0	0	0	4.5
Z. Gelof★3B	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	8.5
SPRINT28.891
J. McNeil★2B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	7.4
D. Hernaiz★SS	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	5.4
Team	4-19	19	1	4	1	1	4	4	—

Batting

Analytics

Player

C. Cortes★RF

0-2

2.2

S. Langeliers★C

0-3

3.8

N. Kurtz★1B

0-2

1.9

B. Rooker★DH

1-3

1.8

T. Soderstrom★LF

0-1

0.8

H. Bolte★CF

2-2

4.5

Z. Gelof★3B

1-2

8.5

J. McNeil★2B

0-2

7.4

D. Hernaiz★SS

0-2

5.4

Team

4-19

—

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Pitching	Analytics
J. Perkins★RP	4.0	5	5	5	2	6	1	26.9
Team	5.0	5	5	5	2	7	1	—

Pitching

Analytics

Player

J. Perkins★RP

4.0

26.9

Team

5.0

—

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
J. Pena★SS	1-2	2	1	1	0	0	1	0	22.8
SPRINT28.483
Y. Alvarez★DH	1-2	2	2	1	0	0	1	0	26.6
SPRINT24.64
C. Walker★1B	1-3	3	1	1	1	0	0	1	1.8
SPRINT25.920
I. Paredes★3B	1-1	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	20.7
SPRINT25.18
J. Altuve★2B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.9
C. Smith★RF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.9
J. Meyers★CF	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	1	1.1
SPRINT27.867
N. Allen★SS	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.6
C. Vazquez★C	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.4
Team	5-18	18	5	5	5	1	2	7	—

Batting

Analytics

Player