MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2BOS

BOS

27-35

NYY

37-26

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 974 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York

43,750 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

NYY spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

NYY no-vig %

56.3%

open 57.2% · -0.9

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYY favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

66.1%

ensemble · NYY favored

Elo Static
65.5%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
64.7%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
65.4%
P(NYY win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.35 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-149

Close price

-149

Open no-vig

57.2%

Close no-vig

57.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+18.6pp

best edge · NYY · DraftKings

BOS

no live price

NYY

★ best

-104DraftKings

edge +18.6pp · implied 47.9%

Book	BOS	NYY	Best edge
DraftKings	-125	-104★	+18.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

NYY vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

Ryan WeathersNYY
6.8± 3.3low
Payton TolleBOS
6.4± 3.8low
Cam SchlittlerNYY
6.3± 2.5low

Hits

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.3± 1.0high
Ben RiceNYY
1.3± 1.4high
Jarren DuranBOS
1.2± 1.1high

Total bases

Ben RiceNYY
2.5± 2.9high
Jarren DuranBOS
2.3± 2.4high
Willson ContrerasBOS
2.0± 2.1high

RBIs

Ben RiceNYY
1.0± 1.4high
Paul GoldschmidtNYY
0.8± 1.4high
Caleb DurbinBOS
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Ryan WeathersNYY
2.3± 2.7low
Connelly EarlyBOS
2.1± 2.3low
Will WarrenNYY
2.0± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

BOS 5 · NYY 3 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked NYY +16pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
BOS	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	0	0	5
NYY	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
J. Duran★LF	1-4	4	1	1	0	0	0	1	28.3
SPRINT29.294
C. Rafaela★CF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	7.7
W. Abreu★RF	1-4	4	1	1	1	0	0	1	22.6
SPRINT2872
W. Contreras★1B	2-4	4	1	2	3	1	0	1	26.4
SPRINT26.838
C. Durbin★3B	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	0	7.6
I. Kiner-Falefa★2B	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.8
A. Monasterio★SS	1-3	3	1	1	1	1	0	0	9.2
SPRINT2744
M. Gasper★C	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2	3.5
C. Wong★C	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	0	1	14.3
SPRINT27.354
M. Mayer2B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5
Team	7-34	34	5	7	5	2	1	8	—

Batting

Analytics

Player

J. Duran★LF

1-4

28.3

C. Rafaela★CF

0-3

7.7

W. Abreu★RF

1-4

22.6

W. Contreras★1B

2-4

26.4

C. Durbin★3B

1-4

7.6

I. Kiner-Falefa★2B

0-4

0.8

A. Monasterio★SS

1-3

9.2

M. Gasper★C

0-4

3.5

C. Wong★C

1-3

14.3

M. Mayer2B

0-1

0.5

Team

7-34

—

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Pitching	Analytics
S. Gray★SP	6.1	8	3	3	2	3	2	18.0
D. CoulombeRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	9.6
J. SlatenRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11.2
A. ChapmanRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	1	0	8.6
Team	9.0	8	3	3	4	5	2	—

Pitching

Analytics

Player

S. Gray★SP

6.1

18.0

D. CoulombeRP

0.2

9.6

J. SlatenRP

1.0

11.2

A. ChapmanRP

1.0

8.6

Team

9.0

—

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
T. Grisham★CF	1-5	5	1	1	1	1	0	0	8.8
SPRINT26.735
B. Rice★1B	2-3	3	1	2	1	1	1	1	8.4
SPRINT26.941
P. Goldschmidt★1B	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	10.8
C. Bellinger★LF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	1	8.4
J. Chisholm Jr.★2B	0-4	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	10.6
SPRINT28.175
S. Jones★RF	3-3	3	0	3	1	0	0	0	12.4
A. Volpe★SS	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	1	14.0
R. McMahon★3B	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	0	13.3
A. Wells★C	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	9.4
J. CaballeroSS	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	9.2

Team	8-33	33	3	8	3	2	4	5	—

Batting

Analytics

Player