MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

Short struck out swinging. → win prob 72→80% DET

BOT 5TH+2DET

SEA

33-30

DET

25-38

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 971 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

MLB · At bat

Bottom 50-02 outs

Pitcher· SEA

B. Woo

4.2 IP, 6 K, 3 ER

Batter· DET

K. McGonigle

1-2

LastBryan Woo pitches to Kevin McGonigle

Live · model leanBot 5thPolls every 30s

57.7%

DET wins · current

Pre-game: 59.2% SEA

SEA 1 · 3 DET

DET +2

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 5

away leadsDET leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingDETBottom 5th Inning · 1-3
+7pp→ 80% WP
Short · struck out swinging.
ClutchSEATop 4th Inning · 1-3
+7pp→ 39% WP
Refsnyder · reached on infield single to shortstop, Naylor to second.
Lead flipDETBottom 3rd Inning · 1-3
+24pp→ 73% WP
Carpenter · homered to right (347 feet), Dingler scored.
SwingDETTop 3rd Inning · 1-0
+7pp→ 36% WP
Rodr · íguez grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Crawford out at second.
SwingSEATop 1st Inning · 1-0
+11pp→ 64% WP
Refsnyder · singled to right, Crawford scored, Rodríguez to second.

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 7.83

B. Woo

5-3 · 3.44 ERA

F. Valdez

2-4 · 4.39 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

DET spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

DET no-vig %

44.9%

open 45.8% · -0.9

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = DET favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

40.7%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
44.5%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
43.3%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
43.5%
P(DET win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.52 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

96.0%

+51.5ppvs pre-game · DET favored

Leverage

±3.3

pp · next play

low · 12/100

Mostly decided · home ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+34.2pp

best edge · SEA · DraftKings

SEA

★ best

+276DraftKings

edge +34.2pp · implied 25.0%

DET

no live price

Book	SEA	DET	Best edge
DraftKings	+276★	-395	+34.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

DET vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

Logan GilbertSEA
5.9± 2.6low
Emerson HancockSEA
5.7± 4.4low
Jack FlahertyDET
5.5± 3.5low

Hits

Kevin McGonigleDET
1.2± 0.9high
Gleyber TorresDET
1.1± 1.4high
Riley GreeneDET
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Dillon DinglerDET
2.4± 3.6high
Julio RodriguezSEA
2.4± 2.7high
Colt EmersonSEA
2.1± 2.8medium

RBIs

Dillon DinglerDET
1.1± 1.6high
Julio RodriguezSEA
0.9± 1.1high
J.P. CrawfordSEA
0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

Framber ValdezDET
3.0± 3.4low
Luis CastilloSEA
3.0± 3.3low
George KirbySEA
2.7± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelEdge

● Live

SEA★

Mariners

37-37

vs59.2%SEA

DET

Tigers

27-40

SEA 59.2%win prob40.8% DET

SEA 1520 · DET 1458Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
J.P. Crawford★SS	1-1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	4.7
SPRINT25.513
J. Rodriguez★CF	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	2.6
SPRINT28.688
R. Arozarena★LF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.8
J. Naylor★1B	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	1	2.9
SPRINT23.81
R. Refsnyder★DH	2-2	2	0	2	1	0	0	0	2.3
SPRINT26.326
M. Garver★C	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	9.7
C. Young★2B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.4
V. Robles★RF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1.0
C. Emerson★3B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	2.3
P. Wisdom3B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1.8
Team	5-19	19	1	5	1	0	2	5	—

Batting

Analytics

Player

J.P. Crawford★SS

1-1

4.7

J. Rodriguez★CF

1-2

2.6

R. Arozarena★LF

0-2

0.8

J. Naylor★1B

1-3

2.9

R. Refsnyder★DH

2-2

2.3

M. Garver★C

0-2

9.7

C. Young★2B

0-2

6.4

V. Robles★RF

0-2

1.0

C. Emerson★3B

0-2

2.3

P. Wisdom3B

0-1

1.8

Team

5-19

—

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Pitching	Analytics
B. Woo★SP	4.2	5	3	3	0	6	1	38.7
Team	4.2	5	3	3	0	6	1	—

Pitching

Analytics

Player

B. Woo★SP

4.2

38.7

Team

4.2

—

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
G. Torres★2B	2-3	3	1	2	0	0	0	0	14.1
SPRINT25.18
K. McGonigle★SS	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.2
SPRINT28.278
D. Dingler★C	0-2	2	1	0	1	0	0	0	21.6
SPRINT27.765
K. Carpenter★RF	1-2	2	1	1	2	1	0	1	22.1
SPRINT26.735
R. Greene★LF	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.7
SPRINT2744
S. Torkelson★1B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	3.0
C. Keith★3B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	3.6
Z. McKinstry★2B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.3
Z. Short★SS	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	3.8
Team	5-19	19	3	5	3	1	0	6	—

Batting

Analytics

Player