MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

BOT 4TH+1CIN

CIN

20-15

CHC

23-12

Live · model leanBot 4thPolls every 30s

51.2%

CIN wins · current

Pre-game: 61.8% CHC

CIN 1 · 0 CHC

CIN +1

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 10.38

A. Abbott

1-2 · 5.97 ERA

J. Taillon

2-1 · 4.41 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

CHC spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 0.0 · +8.0

CHC no-vig %

60.0%

open 59.3% · +0.7

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHC favored. Pure CLV joins once moneyline closing-line ingest catches up across leagues.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.6%

ensemble · CHC favored

Elo Static
61.8%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
63.6%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
62.4%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.75 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Live · model intelligence

66% confidence

Win prob · home

30.2%

-31.6ppvs pre-game · CIN favored

Leverage

high

1-point game · home ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.68

CLV pp

Open price

-163

Close price

-168

Open no-vig

59.3%

Close no-vig

60.0%

Market came to the model

Player projections

CHC vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 60 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chase BurnsCIN
6.6± 3.6low
Matthew BoydCHC
6.2± 3.2low
Shota ImanagaCHC
6.1± 4.4low

Hits

Seiya SuzukiCHC
1.3± 1.3high
Elly De La CruzCIN
1.2± 1.1high
Carson KellyCHC
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Seiya SuzukiCHC
2.5± 2.6high
JJ BledayCIN
2.3± 3.2low
Nathaniel LoweCIN
2.3± 2.8high

RBIs

Nathaniel LoweCIN
0.9± 1.1high
Dansby SwansonCHC
0.8± 1.4high
Moises BallesterosCHC
0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

Andrew AbbottCIN
3.3± 3.1low
Javier AssadCHC
3.2± 5.5low
Matthew BoydCHC
3.2± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelEdge

● Live

CIN

Reds

20-15

vs62%CHC

CHC★

Cubs

23-12

CIN 38%win prob62% CHC

CHC 1564 · CIN 1504Box score→

MLBTue, May 5Bot 4thSeriesCHC lead series 1-0VegasCHC -166

Updated 0s ago

Tonight's box score

Every player. Every line.

CIN · CHC

CIN

20-15

Player	H-AB	R	RBI	HR	OPS
T. Friedl★CF	0-2	0	0	0	0.000
J. Bleday★LF	1-2	1	1	1	2.500
E. De La Cruz★SS	0-2	0	0	0	0.000
S. Stewart★1B	1-2	0	0	0	1.000
N. Lowe★1B	1-2	0	0	0	1.000
S. Steer★LF	1-2	0	0	0	1.000
T. Stephenson★C	0-1	0	0	0	0.500
M. McLain★2B	0-2	0	0	0	0.000
K. Hayes★3B	0-1	0	0	0	0.000
Team	4-16	1	1	1	—

Player	IP	H	ER	K
A. Abbott★SP	3.1	2	0	3
Team	3.1	2	0	3

CHC

23-12

Player	H-AB	OPS
N. Hoerner★2B	1-2	1.000
A. Bregman★3B	0-1	0.500
I. Happ★LF	0-2	0.000
S. Suzuki★RF	0-1	0.000
D. Swanson★SS	0-1	0.000
M. Busch★1B	0-1	0.000
M. Shaw★RF	1-1	2.000
M. Amaya★C	0-1	0.000
P. Crow-Armstrong★CF	0-1	0.000
Team	2-11	—

Player	IP	H	ER	K
J. Taillon★SP	4.0	4	1	3
Team	4.0	4	1	3

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

Hits

Runs

Errors

Current series

CHC lead series 1-0

May 4

CIN4@

CHC5

May 5

CIN@

CHCtoday

May 6

CIN@

CHCupcoming

May 7

CIN@

CHCupcoming

Season series

CHC lead series 1-0

May 4

CIN4@

CHC5

May 5

CIN@

CHCtoday

May 6

CIN@

CHCupcoming

May 7

CIN@

CHCupcoming

Jul 10

CHC@

CINupcoming

Jul 11

CHC@

CINupcoming

Jul 12

CHC@

CINupcoming

Aug 28

CIN@

CHCupcoming

Aug 29

CIN@

CHCupcoming

Aug 30

CIN@

CHCupcoming

Sep 18

CHC@

CINupcoming

Sep 19

CHC@

CINupcoming

Sep 20

CHC@

CINupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHC -1.5

1.5pt· 6.3h

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

8.0pt· 6.3h

Moneyline

CIN+13742%

CHC-16662%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHC -1.5↗SpreadBet CHC -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

8.0

+8.0 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats

CINSP

A. Abbott

#41 · 1-2

ERA

5.97

—

Last 3 starts

4/30vs

COL6.0 IP · 2 ER · 5 KW(1-2)

4/24vs

DET4.0 IP · 5 ER · 4 K-

4/18@

MIN4.2 IP · 3 ER · 3 K-

CHCSP

J. Taillon

#50 · 2-1

ERA

4.41

—

Last 3 starts

4/29@

SD7.0 IP · 3 ER · 6 KW(2-1)

4/25@

LAD5.0 IP · 4 ER · 4 K-

4/18vs

NYM6.0 IP · 1 ER · 4 KW(1-1)

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order

CIN3L · 5R · 1S

1
T. Friedl
CF · #29
L
2
J. Bleday
LF · #22
L
3
E. De La Cruz
SS · #44
B
4
S. Stewart
1B · #27
R
5
N. Lowe
DH · #31
L
6
S. Steer
RF · #7
R
7
T. Stephenson
C · #37
R
8
M. McLain
2B · #9
R
9
K. Hayes
3B · #3
R

CHC2L · 6R · 1S

1
N. Hoerner
2B · #2
R
2
A. Bregman
DH · #3
R
3
I. Happ
LF · #8
B
4
S. Suzuki
RF · #27
R
5
D. Swanson
SS · #7
R
6
M. Busch
1B · #29
L
7
M. Shaw
3B · #6
R
8
M. Amaya
C · #9
R
9
P. Crow-Armstrong
CF · #4
L

Live · top performers so far

Bot 4th

Game flowCIN ↔ CHC

Recent swing: 7pp · Top 4th Inning

Just happened

Pitch · 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

CIN

J. Bleday

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.500 OPS

A. Abbott

Starting pitcher

3.1 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 1 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 6 K · 0 ER

CHC

M. Shaw

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

J. Taillon

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 5 K · 2 ER

How it's going

CIN lead CHC 1-0 (Bot 4th).

Win probability

CHC vs CIN

Score progression

0 lead changes

CIN1

CHC0

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CINTop 1st Inning · 1-0

+10pp→ 45% WP

Bleday · homered to right center (384 feet).

CHCTop 4th Inning · 1-0

+7pp→ 54% WP

McLain · flied out to left.

CINBottom 4th Inning · 1-0

+7pp→ 42% WP

Happ · struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team	1	2	3	4	R
CIN	1	0	0	0	1
CHC	0	0	0	0	0

Period scoring

CIN won 1 · CHC won 0

Inn 1

Bleday 1

Inn 2

Inn 3

Inn 4

CIN

CHC

Game flow · key plays

B4
Happ struck out swinging.
CIN 1·CHC 0
−7pp
B4
Bregman walked, Hoerner to second.
CIN 1·CHC 0
+6pp
B4
Hoerner singled to left.
CIN 1·CHC 0
+5pp
T4
McLain flied out to left.
CIN 1·CHC 0
+7pp
T4
Stephenson walked, Steer to second, Lowe to third.
CIN 1·CHC 0
−3pp
T1
Bleday homered to right center (384 feet).
CIN 1·CHC 0
−10pp

Team stats

CIN

Away

Stat

CHC

Home

Hits

Errors

Runs

Betting line

CHC -1.5·O/U 8·CIN +137/CHC -166

DraftKings · via ESPN

Live · model intelligence

66% confidence

Win prob · home

30.2%

-31.6ppvs pre-game · CIN favored

Leverage

high

1-point game · home ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.68

CLV pp

Open price

-163

Close price

-168

Open no-vig

59.3%

Close no-vig

60.0%

Market came to the model

Player projections

CHC vs CIN.

120

projections · 60 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chase BurnsCIN
6.6± 3.6low
Matthew BoydCHC
6.2± 3.2low
Shota ImanagaCHC
6.1± 4.4low

Hits

Seiya SuzukiCHC
1.3± 1.3high
Elly De La CruzCIN
1.2± 1.1high
Carson KellyCHC
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Seiya SuzukiCHC
2.5± 2.6high
JJ BledayCIN
2.3± 3.2low
Nathaniel LoweCIN
2.3± 2.8high

RBIs

Nathaniel LoweCIN
0.9± 1.1high
Dansby SwansonCHC
0.8± 1.4high
Moises BallesterosCHC
0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

Andrew AbbottCIN
3.3± 3.1low
Javier AssadCHC
3.2± 5.5low
Matthew BoydCHC
3.2± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

62.6%

ensemble · CHC favored

Elo Static
61.8%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
63.6%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
62.4%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.75 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen