Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CIN at CHC?

The model favors CHC, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Box Score — May 5, 2026

FINAL+1CHC

CIN

20-16

CHC

24-12

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois

34,777 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CHC spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 0.0 · +8.0

CHC no-vig %

60.0%

open 59.3% · +0.7

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.5%

ensemble · CHC favored

Elo Static
64.9%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
63.3%
P(CHC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
65.1%
P(CHC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.80 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.68

CLV pp

Open price

-163

Close price

-168

Open no-vig

59.3%

Close no-vig

60.0%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CIN at CHC?: The model favors CHC, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

CHC vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chase BurnsCIN
7.0± 2.4medium
Shota ImanagaCHC
5.4± 2.8medium
Edward CabreraCHC
4.8± 2.8low

Hits

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
1.6± 1.1high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
1.2± 0.8high
Blake DunnCIN
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
3.4± 2.5high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
2.0± 1.6high
Noelvi MarteCIN
1.9± 1.6high

RBIs

Sal StewartCIN
0.9± 2.1high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
0.8± 1.3high
Carson KellyCHC
0.7± 1.9high

Earned runs

Nick LodoloCIN
3.6± 2.5low
Edward CabreraCHC
3.4± 2.6low
Shota ImanagaCHC
3.1± 3.4medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CIN

league avg

CHC

.706

OPS

.719

▶

.738

.311

OBP

.319

▶

.337

4.28

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.75

4.58

Team ERA

4.19

▶

4.28

1.46

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.24

7.9

K / 9

8.5

7.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

CIN 2 · CHC 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CHC +15pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R
CIN	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2
CHC	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	3

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. FriedlCF	.190	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. BledayLF	.292	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
E. De La CruzSS	.275	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. Stewart1B	.252	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
N. LoweDH	.275	4	1	2	1	1	0	1
S. SteerLF	.254	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
T. StephensonC	.195	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
M. McLain2B	.189	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. Hayes3B	.121	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. MyersCF	.267	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. DunnRF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. TrevinoC	.158	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		37	2	6	2	2	2	9

Player

.190

.292

.275

.252

.275

.254

.195

.189

.121

.267

.000

.158

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. AbbottSP	5.2	4	0	0	4	4	98
C. PhillipsRP	1.1	2	1	1	1	2	28
T. SantillanRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	17
E. PaganRP	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. FrancoRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	0	22
S. MollRP	0.0	1	1	0	0	0	2
Team	9.0	8	3	2	7	7	168

Player

5.2

1.1

1.0

0.0

1.0

0.0

Team

9.0

168

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. Hoerner2B	.300	3	0	1	0	0	2	0
A. Bregman3B	.245	4	0	1	1	0	1	0
I. HappLF	.234	4	0	0	0	0	1	3
S. SuzukiRF	.306	4	0	0	0	0	1	0
D. SwansonSS	.205	5	1	1	0	0	0	0
M. Busch1B	.229	4	1	3	2	1	1	1
M. ShawRF	.284	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. AmayaC	.218	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
P. Crow-ArmstrongCF	.237	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
M. BallesterosDH	.302	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. Lopez2B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. ConfortoDH	.313	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. PalenciaRP	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. RolisonRP	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	3	8	3	1	7	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. TaillonSP	5.2	5	2	2	1	5	100
J. AssadSP	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	17
J. WebbRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	17
D. PalenciaRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	15
R. RolisonRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	18
Team	10.0	6	2	2	2	9	167

Team

CIN

CHC

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

CHC vs CIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CHC vs CIN.

3 sub-models, blended.