MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1ATL

TOR

29-32

ATL

41-20

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 985 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia

30,937 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

ATL spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

ATL no-vig %

54.1%

open 54.2% · -0.1

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

71.0%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
68.3%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
69.2%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
68.6%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.37 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.12

CLV pp

Open price

-131

Close price

-131

Open no-vig

54.2%

Close no-vig

54.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+19.4pp

best edge · ATL · DraftKings

TOR

no live price

ATL

★ best

-115DraftKings

edge +19.4pp · implied 51.1%

Book	TOR	ATL	Best edge
DraftKings	-105	-115★	+19.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

ATL vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 82 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.3± 2.8low
Spencer StriderATL
6.7± 2.6low
Trey YesavageTOR
5.6± 2.2low

Hits

Michael Harris IIATL
1.3± 1.4high
Ozzie AlbiesATL
1.2± 1.1high
Ernie ClementTOR
1.2± 0.7high

Total bases

Matt OlsonATL
2.1± 2.1high
Michael Harris IIATL
2.1± 2.6high
Ronald Acuna Jr.ATL
2.0± 2.9high

RBIs

Ronald Acuna Jr.ATL
0.8± 1.3high
Michael Harris IIATL
0.7± 1.2high
Kazuma OkamotoTOR
0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

Kevin GausmanTOR
2.4± 2.4low
Grant HolmesATL
2.2± 2.0low
Spencer StriderATL
2.2± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

TOR 3 · ATL 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ATL +18pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TOR	0	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	3
ATL	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	4

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
G. Springer★DH	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2	4.3
N. Lukes★RF	2-4	4	1	2	0	0	0	0	9.2
SPRINT27.148
V. Guerrero Jr.★1B	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	0	17.2
SPRINT26.123
D. Varsho★CF	0-3	3	0	0	1	0	0	2	8.4
E. Clement★2B	2-4	4	0	2	0	0	0	1	12.6
SPRINT27.354
Y. Pinango★LF	2-4	4	1	2	0	0	0	1	5.8
SPRINT2622
K. Okamoto★3B	2-3	3	1	2	2	1	1	0	28.4
SPRINT26.123
A. Gimenez★SS	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	26.3
B. Valenzuela★C	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	4.4
J. SanchezRF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	10.1

Team	9-34	34	3	9	3	1	1	9	—

Batting

Analytics

Player

G. Springer★DH

0-4

4.3

N. Lukes★RF

2-4

9.2

V. Guerrero Jr.★1B

1-4

17.2

D. Varsho★CF

0-3

8.4

E. Clement★2B

2-4

12.6

Y. Pinango★LF

2-4

5.8

K. Okamoto★3B

2-3

28.4

A. Gimenez★SS

0-4

26.3

B. Valenzuela★C

0-3

4.4

J. SanchezRF

0-1

10.1

Team

9-34

—

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Pitching	Analytics
K. Gausman★SP	6.0	5	4	4	2	8	1	34.7
B. FisherRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3.4
M. FluhartyRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.3
C. SeaboldRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0
Team	8.0	6	4	4	2	9	1	—

Pitching

Analytics

Player

K. Gausman★SP

6.0

34.7

B. FisherRP

1.0

3.4

M. FluhartyRP

0.2

0.3

C. SeaboldRP

0.1

0.0

Team

8.0

—

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
R. Acuna Jr.★RF	0-3	3	1	0	0	0	1	2	10.0
SPRINT26.838
M. Harris II★CF	1-4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0	8.3
SPRINT27.148
M. Olson★1B	2-4	4	2	2	1	1	0	0	24.1
SPRINT25.513
O. Albies★2B	2-2	2	0	2	2	0	1	0	11.2
SPRINT27.354
D. Smith★DH	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1.2
A. Riley★3B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5
M. Yastrzemski★LF	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	2	0.3
SPRINT2744
J. Mateo★SS	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	4.7
S. Leon★C	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1.7
M. DubonSS	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0
Team	6-29	29	4	6	4	1	2	9	—

Batting

Analytics

Player