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TOP 6TH+6TEX

TEX

16-19

NYY

25-11

Live · model leanTop 6thPolls every 30s

68.8%

TEX wins · current

Pre-game: 65.4% NYY

TEX 6 · 0 NYY

TEX +6

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 7.15

N. Eovaldi

3-4 · 4.76 ERA

W. Warren

4-0 · 2.39 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

NYY spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.0 · +0.5

NYY no-vig %

63.0%

open 63.6% · -0.6

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYY favored. Pure CLV joins once moneyline closing-line ingest catches up across leagues.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

67.2%

ensemble · NYY favored

Elo Static
65.4%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
68.3%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
68.0%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.30 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Live · model intelligence

76% confidence

Win prob · home

1.0%

-64.4ppvs pre-game · TEX favored

Leverage

low

Mostly decided · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-199

Close price

-199

Open no-vig

63.6%

Close no-vig

63.6%

Line barely moved

Player projections

NYY vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 54 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob deGromTEX
6.7± 3.2low
Cam SchlittlerNYY
6.6± 2.0low
Will WarrenNYY
6.6± 3.6low

Hits

Josh JungTEX
1.5± 0.7high
Ben RiceNYY
1.3± 1.1high
Aaron JudgeNYY
1.2± 1.1high

Total bases

Aaron JudgeNYY
2.8± 2.7high
Ben RiceNYY
2.8± 2.4high
Cody BellingerNYY
2.4± 3.3high

RBIs

Cody BellingerNYY
1.1± 1.5high
Aaron JudgeNYY
0.9± 1.3high
Ben RiceNYY
0.9± 1.1high

Earned runs

Jack LeiterTEX
3.3± 2.0low
Nathan EovaldiTEX
3.0± 3.6low
MacKenzie GoreTEX
2.6± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One model★ Lock

● Live

TEX

Rangers

16-19

vs65.4%NYY

NYY★

Yankees

25-11

TEX 34.6%win prob65.4% NYY

NYY 1585 · TEX 1498Box score→

MLBWed, May 6Top 6thSeriesNYY lead series 1-0VegasNYY -171

Updated 0s ago

Tonight's box score

Every player. Every line.

TEX · NYY

TEX

16-19

Player	H-AB	R	RBI	HR	OPS
B. Nimmo★RF	0-1	1	0	0	0.667
E. Duran★LF	1-2	1	2	0	1.000
C. Seager★SS	2-3	1	2	1	2.333
J. Jung★3B	0-3	0	0	0	0.000
E. Carter★CF	1-3	1	2	1	1.667
K. Higashioka★C	0-3	0	0	0	0.000
J. Burger★1B	2-3	1	0	0	1.333
A. Osuna★LF	1-2	0	0	0	1.167
A. McCutchen★LF	1-2	1	0	0	1.167
Team	8-22	6	6	2	—

Player	IP	H	ER	K
N. Eovaldi★SP	5.0	2	0	6
Team	5.0	2	0	6

NYY

25-11

Player	H-AB	OPS
T. Grisham★CF	0-2	0.000
A. Judge★RF	0-2	0.000
C. Bellinger★LF	1-2	1.000
J. Dominguez★LF	0-2	0.000
J. Chisholm Jr.★2B	0-2	0.000
P. Goldschmidt★1B	0-2	0.000
A. Wells★C	1-2	1.000
R. McMahon★3B	0-2	0.000
J. Caballero★SS	0-0	—
Team	2-16	—

Player	IP	H	ER	K
W. Warren★SP	4.0	7	6	7
Y. De los SantosRP	1.0	1	0	1
Team	5.0	8	6	8

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

Hits

Runs

Errors

Current series

NYY lead series 1-0

May 5

TEX4@

NYY7

May 6

TEX@

NYYtoday

May 7

TEX@

NYYupcoming

Season series

NYY lead series 3-1

Apr 28

NYY4@

TEX2

Apr 29

NYY3@

TEX2

Apr 29

NYY0@

TEX3

May 5

TEX4@

NYY7

May 6

TEX@

NYYtoday

May 7

TEX@

NYYupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYY -1.5

1.5pt· 6h

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

0.5pt· 6h

Moneyline

TEX+14141%

NYY-17163%

6· 6h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYY -1.5↗SpreadBet NYY -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

8.5

+0.5 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats

TEXSP

N. Eovaldi

#17 · 3-4

ERA

4.76

—

Last 3 starts

4/29vs

NYY7.0 IP · 0 ER · 7 KW(3-4)

4/25vs

ATH6.0 IP · 6 ER · 3 KL(2-4)

4/18@

SEA5.0 IP · 2 ER · 3 KL(2-3)

NYYSP

W. Warren

#29 · 4-0

ERA

2.39

—

Last 3 starts

5/1vs

BAL6.1 IP · 1 ER · 9 KW(4-0)

4/25@

HOU6.0 IP · 2 ER · 6 KW(3-0)

4/18vs

KC7.0 IP · 2 ER · 11 KW(2-0)

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order

TEX4L · 5R

1
B. Nimmo
DH · #24
L
2
E. Duran
2B · #20
R
3
C. Seager
SS · #5
L
4
J. Jung
3B · #6
R
5
E. Carter
CF · #32
L
6
K. Higashioka
C · #11
R
7
J. Burger
1B · #21
R
8
A. Osuna
LF · #19
L
9
A. McCutchen
RF · #4
R

NYY5L · 3R · 1S

1
T. Grisham
CF · #12
L
2
A. Judge
RF · #99
R
3
C. Bellinger
LF · #35
L
4
J. Dominguez
DH · #24
B
5
J. Chisholm Jr.
2B · #13
L
6
P. Goldschmidt
1B · #48
R
7
A. Wells
C · #28
L
8
R. McMahon
3B · #19
L
9
J. Caballero
SS · #72
R

Live · top performers so far

Top 6th

Game flowTEX ↔ NYY

Recent swing: 7pp · Top 4th Inning

Just happened

Pitch · 2 : Strike 1 Foul

TEX

C. Seager

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.333 OPS

N. Eovaldi

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 2 H

On pace: 7 IP · 8 K · 0 ER

NYY

C. Bellinger

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.000 OPS

W. Warren

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 7 K · 6 ER · 7 H · 3 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 12 K · 11 ER

How it's going

TEX lead NYY 6-0 (Top 6th). Carter's play in the top 3rd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Win probability

NYY vs TEX

Score progression

0 lead changes

TEX6

NYY0

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

TEXTop 1st Inning · 1-0

+10pp→ 45% WP

Seager · homered to right (350 feet).

TEXTop 3rd Inning · 2-0

+14pp→ 70% WP

Duran · doubled to left, Nimmo scored.

TEXTop 3rd Inning · 4-0

+18pp→ 80% WP

Carter · homered to right (368 feet), Duran scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	R
TEX	1	0	3	2	0	0	6
NYY	0	0	0	0	0	—	0

Period scoring

TEX won 3 · NYY won 0

Inn 1

Seager 1

Inn 2

Inn 3

Carter 2

Inn 4

Duran 1

Inn 5

Inn 6

TEX

NYY

Game flow · key plays

T4
Burger singled to right.
TEX 4·NYY 0
−7pp
T3
Carter homered to right (368 feet), Duran scored.
TEX 4·NYY 0
−18pp
T3
Seager grounded out to third.
TEX 2·NYY 0
+4pp
T3
Duran doubled to left, Nimmo scored.
TEX 2·NYY 0
−14pp
T3
Nimmo walked.
TEX 1·NYY 0
−5pp
T1
Seager homered to right (350 feet).
TEX 1·NYY 0
−10pp

Team stats

TEX

Away

Stat

NYY

Home

Hits

Errors

Runs

Betting line

NYY -1.5·O/U 8.5·TEX +141/NYY -171

DraftKings · via ESPN

Live · model intelligence

76% confidence

Win prob · home

1.0%

-64.4ppvs pre-game · TEX favored

Leverage

low

Mostly decided · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-199

Close price

-199

Open no-vig

63.6%

Close no-vig

63.6%

Line barely moved

Player projections

NYY vs TEX.

122

projections · 54 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob deGromTEX
6.7± 3.2low
Cam SchlittlerNYY
6.6± 2.0low
Will WarrenNYY
6.6± 3.6low

Hits

Josh JungTEX
1.5± 0.7high
Ben RiceNYY
1.3± 1.1high
Aaron JudgeNYY
1.2± 1.1high

Total bases

Aaron JudgeNYY
2.8± 2.7high
Ben RiceNYY
2.8± 2.4high
Cody BellingerNYY
2.4± 3.3high

RBIs

Cody BellingerNYY
1.1± 1.5high
Aaron JudgeNYY
0.9± 1.3high
Ben RiceNYY
0.9± 1.1high

Earned runs

Jack LeiterTEX
3.3± 2.0low
Nathan EovaldiTEX
3.0± 3.6low
MacKenzie GoreTEX
2.6± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

67.2%

ensemble · NYY favored

Elo Static
65.4%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
68.3%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
68.0%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.30 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen