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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1MIA
MIA

MIA

15-16

3
2
LAD

LAD

20-11

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California
50,555 attended

Line movement

38 snapshots

LAD spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

LAD no-vig %

69.6%

open 69.6%

-1.0-2.0LAD SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL73.6%65.6%LAD NO-VIG %MODEL 66.5%May 3, 7 PMMay 28, 8 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

MIA 3 · LAD 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked LAD +14pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIA0100100103
LAD0100010002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+214

Close price

+214

Open no-vig

30.4%

Close no-vig

30.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 5, 26sim 98
    172
    16(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 6, 26sim 97
    136
    10(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 29, 26sim 95
    282
    19(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 95
    113
    10(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 16, 26sim 95
    23
    15(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 29, 26sim 94
    292
    19(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

LAD vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.3± 2.2low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.9± 3.5low

Hits

  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.3± 2.9high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.1± 2.7high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    2.0± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.0± 1.0high
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Javier SanojaMIA
    0.8± 1.7high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Janson JunkMIA
    3.0± 3.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

67.5%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    64.2%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    66.5%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    63.9%

    P(LAD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.16 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

MLB·Wed, Apr 29·Final/SeriesMIA wins series 2-1/VegasLAD -267

Recap · MLB

Miami Marlins went into Los Angeles Dodgers and beat them, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

MIA +1.5 cashed (LAD lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIA · top performer

MIA
Liam Hicks

Liam Hicks

C

2.750OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

LAD · top performer

LAD
Kyle Tucker

Kyle Tucker

RF

0.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Miami Marlins at Los Angeles Dodgers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIA15-16
3
2
LAD20-11
MIA15-16·LAD20-11
MIA

MIA

15-16

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. MarseeJ. Marsee★CF
0-44000013
K. StowersK. Stowers★LF
0-33000022
O. LopezO. Lopez★SS
1-44010002
SPRINT28.381
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
1-44110000
SPRINT2872
L. HicksL. Hicks★C
1-22111120
SPRINT25.614
C. NorbyC. Norby★1B
0-33000013
O. CaissieO. Caissie★RF
0-22000001
G. PauleyG. Pauley★3B
0-33000011
E. RuizE. Ruiz★RF
2-44121101
J. SanojaJ. Sanoja3B
1-22011000
SPRINT28.381
Team6-31313632713
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. AlcantaraS. Alcantara★SP
6.0722240
A. NardiA. NardiRP
1.0000110
J. KingJ. KingRP
1.0000010
C. FaucherC. FaucherRP
1.0000300
Team9.0722660
LAD

LAD

20-11

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
0-22000031
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
0-55000000
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
1-44010002
SPRINT28.175
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
1-33110011
SPRINT26.123
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
1-33110000
SPRINT27.354
D. RushingD. Rushing★C
1-33011001
SPRINT27.867
H. KimH. Kim★SS
1-33010010
A. CallA. Call★LF
1-33011011
SPRINT27.765
A. FreelandA. Freeland★2B
1-33010000
W. SmithW. SmithC
0-11000000
M. RojasM. RojasSS
0-11000000
Team7-3131272066
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. GlasnowT. Glasnow★SP
5.2322692
A. VesiaA. VesiaRP
0.1000000
W. KleinW. KleinRP
2.0311130
K. HurtK. HurtRP
1.0000010
Team9.06337132

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIA

  • S. Alcantara
    104 pitches·28% CSW
    • CH
      26%·91.6 mph·11% whiff
    • SI
      18%·98.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      17%·98.3 mph·17% whiff
    • FC
      13%·89.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      13%·84.7 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      6%·82.3 mph·67% whiff
    • SL
      6%·85.3 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Faucher
    16 pitches·19% CSW
    • FC
      50%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      31%·88.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·96.5 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      6%·86.2 mph·— whiff
  • J. King
    15 pitches·40% CSW
    • SL
      33%·83.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      27%·92.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      20%·83.1 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      13%·81.5 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      7%·79.7 mph·— whiff
  • A. Nardi
    12 pitches·50% CSW
    • FF
      42%·94.5 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      25%·82.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      17%·90.6 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      17%·83.9 mph·0% whiff

LAD

  • T. Glasnow
    92 pitches·34% CSW
    • SI
      36%·95.5 mph·27% whiff
    • KC
      24%·79.0 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      17%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      14%·83.3 mph·67% whiff
    • SL
      9%·89.1 mph·50% whiff
  • W. Klein
    26 pitches·42% CSW
    • FF
      35%·98.0 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      31%·88.6 mph·57% whiff
    • CU
      27%·84.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      8%·90.9 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Vesia
    5 pitches·40% CSW
    • FF
      60%·90.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      40%·79.9 mph·100% whiff
  • K. Hurt
    5 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      80%·96.2 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      20%·88.1 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

7

3

Runs

2

0

Errors

0

Current series

MIA wins series 2-1

Apr 28MIAMIA4@LADLAD5
Apr 29MIAMIA2@LADLAD1
Apr 29MIAMIA3@LADLAD2today

Season series

MIA leads series 2-1

Apr 28MIAMIA4@LADLAD5
Apr 29MIAMIA2@LADLAD1
Apr 29MIAMIA3@LADLAD2today
Sep 11LADLAD@MIAMIAupcoming
Sep 12LADLAD@MIAMIAupcoming
Sep 13LADLAD@MIAMIAupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAD -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MIAMIA+21432%
LADLAD-26773%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗

Line movement · 38 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIA ↔ LAD

Biggest swing: 56pp · Bottom 9th Inning

MIAMIA
L. Hicks

L. Hicks

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.750 OPS

S. Alcantara

S. Alcantara

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 7 H · 2 BB

LADLAD
K. Tucker

K. Tucker

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 R · 0.833 OPS

T. Glasnow

T. Glasnow

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 9 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 6 BB

How it ended

MIA beat LAD 3-2. Freeman's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (56pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

LAD vs MIA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MIATop 8th Inning · 3-2
+26pp→ 64% WP

Sanoja · reached on infield single to second, Edwards scored.

LADBottom 9th Inning · 3-2
+18pp→ 53% WP

Call · walked, Kim to second.

MIABottom 9th Inning · 3-2
+56pp→ 100% WP

Freeman · grounded into double play, to second, Ohtani out at first.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIA0100100103
LAD0100010002

Period scoring

MIA won 2 · LAD won 1

0
0

Inn 1

1
1

Inn 2

Hicks 1

Call 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

1
0

Inn 5

Ruiz 1

0
1

Inn 6

Rushing 1

0
0

Inn 7

1
0

Inn 8

Sanoja 1

0
0

Inn 9

MIA
LAD

Play-by-play · 573 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    MIA 3·LAD 2

  2. B9

    · ·

    MIA 3·LAD 2

  3. B9

    Freeman grounded into double play, to second, Ohtani out at first.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    MIA 3·LAD 2

    −56pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIA 3·LAD 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIA 3·LAD 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIA 3·LAD 2

  7. B9

    Calvin Faucher pitches to Freddie Freeman

    · ·

    MIA 3·LAD 2

  8. B9

    · ·

    MIA 3·LAD 2

  9. B9

    Ohtani intentionally walked.

    · ·

    MIA 3·LAD 2

    −1pp

  10. B9

    Pitch 4 : Automatic Ball - IBB 4

    · ·

    MIA 3·LAD 2

  11. B9

    Pitch 3 : Automatic Ball - IBB 3

    · ·

    MIA 3·LAD 2

  12. B9

    Pitch 2 : Automatic Ball - IBB 2

    · ·

    MIA 3·LAD 2

  13. B9

    Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball - IBB 1

    · ·

    MIA 3·LAD 2

  14. B9

    Calvin Faucher pitches to Shohei Ohtani

    · ·

    MIA 3·LAD 2

  15. B9

    · ·

    MIA 3·LAD 2

  16. B9

    Freeland hit sacrifice bunt to third, Call to second, Kim to third.

    · ·

    MIA 3·LAD 2

    +4pp

  17. B9

    · ·

    MIA 3·LAD 2

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIA 3·LAD 2

  19. B9

    Calvin Faucher pitches to Alex Freeland

    · ·

    MIA 3·LAD 2

  20. B9

    · ·

    MIA 3·LAD 2

  21. B9

    Call walked, Kim to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    MIA 3·LAD 2

    +18pp

  22. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    · ·

    MIA 3·LAD 2

  23. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    MIA 3·LAD 2

  24. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIA 3·LAD 2

  25. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIA 3·LAD 2

  26. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIA 3·LAD 2

  27. B9

    Calvin Faucher pitches to Alex Call

    · ·

    MIA 3·LAD 2

  28. B9

    ·

    MIA 3·LAD 2

  29. B9

    Kim walked.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    MIA 3·LAD 2

    +12pp

  30. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    ·

    MIA 3·LAD 2

Team stats

MIA

Away

Stat

LAD

Home

3

Runs

2

6

Hits

7

0

Errors

0

12

TB

9

2

HR

0

7

BB

6

13

K

6

15

LOB

20

Betting line

LAD -1.5·O/U 8.5·MIA +214/LAD -267

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Owen CaissieMIA · RF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Otto LopezMIA · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Javier SanojaMIA · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA · 2B
    SPRINT2872