Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WSH at CBJ?

The model favors WSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1WSH

WSH

43-30-9

CBJ

40-30-12

NHLTue, Apr 14FinalSeriesWSH wins series 4-0VegasCBJ -155

WSH · top performer

Anthony Beauvillier

LW · #72

1Points

—

SOG

CBJ · top performer

Boone Jenner

C · #38

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. BeauvillierLW · #72	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	16:50
B. DuhaimeRW · #22	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	10:01
H. LapierreC · #29	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:18
R. LeonardRW · #9	0	0	1	2	2	1	0	16:05
C. McMichaelC · #24	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	16:26
I. MiroshnichenkoLW · #63	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:36
A. OvechkinLW · #8	0	1	-1	4	1	0	0	18:48
A. ProtasC · #21	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	16:30
I. ProtasLW · #62	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	16:06
J. SourdifRW · #34	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	16:05
D. StromeC · #17	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	16:42
T. WilsonRW · #43	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	16:39

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChychrunD · #6	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	23:05
M. FehervaryD · #42	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	18:17
C. HutsonD · #44	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	19:54
D. McIlrathD · #52	0	0	0	1	3	2	0	13:04
M. RoyD · #3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	19:58
T. van RiemsdykD · #57	0	1	0	0	0	2	0	20:03

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. StevensonG · #33	28	1	27	.964	59:37

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CoyleC · #3	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	18:48
A. FantilliC · #19	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	21:17
C. GarlandRW · #83	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:36
D. HeinenLW · #43	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	10:45
B. JennerC · #38	1	0	1	4	0	3	0	14:12
K. JohnsonC · #91	0	0	0	1	0	1	2	10:51
I. LundestromC · #21	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	15:39
K. MarchenkoRW · #86	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	19:00
M. MarchmentLW · #17	0	1	1	3	0	0	2	16:15
S. MonahanC · #23	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	14:40
C. SillingerC · #4	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	14:01
M. WoodLW · #11	0	0	-1	1	0	0	2	9:56

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChristiansenD · #2	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	10:11
D. FabbroD · #15	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	19:35
E. GudbransonD · #44	0	0	1	1	0	4	0	18:41
D. MateychukD · #5	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	18:16
I. ProvorovD · #9	0	0	1	4	0	1	0	24:07
Z. WerenskiD · #8	0	0	-1	3	0	2	0	25:59

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. GreavesG · #73	21	2	19	.905	58:24

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

CBJ

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

WSH wins series 4-0

Oct 24

WSH5@

CBJ1

Nov 25

CBJ1@

WSH5

Dec 8

CBJ0@

WSH2

Apr 14

WSH2@

CBJ1today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CBJ -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

WSH+13043%

CBJ-15561%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CBJ -1.5↗SpreadBet CBJ -1.5↗

Line movement · 94 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

WSH beat CBJ 2-1. A. Beauvillier led the way — 1 G · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
WSH	0	1	1	2
CBJ	0	1	0	1

Period scoring

WSH won 1 · CBJ won 0

WSH

CBJ

Play-by-play · 260 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
WSH 2·CBJ 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
WSH 2·CBJ 1
3rd·19:40
Giveaway by Martin Fehérváry
WSH 2·CBJ 1
3rd·19:36
Aliaksei Protas faceoff won against Sean Monahan
· ·
WSH 2·CBJ 1
3rd·19:36
Puck in Netting
WSH 2·CBJ 1
3rd·19:33
Mason Marchment Snap Shot Above Crossbar
·
WSH 2·CBJ 1
3rd·18:51
Sean Monahan faceoff won against Connor McMichael
·
WSH 2·CBJ 1
3rd·18:51
Puck in Netting
WSH 2·CBJ 1
3rd·18:49
Cole Sillinger shot blocked by Trevor van Riemsdyk
·
WSH 2·CBJ 1
3rd·18:41
Jakob Chychrun shot blocked by Zach Werenski
·
WSH 2·CBJ 1
3rd·18:39
Alex Ovechkin Snap Shot Wide Right
WSH 2·CBJ 1
3rd·18:31
Giveaway by Jakob Chychrun
WSH 2·CBJ 1
3rd·18:03
Giveaway by Clay Stevenson
WSH 2·CBJ 1
3rd·17:59
Brandon Duhaime hit Ivan Provorov
·
WSH 2·CBJ 1
3rd·17:36
Takeaway by Ivan Provorov
WSH 2·CBJ 1
3rd·17:32
Justin Sourdif faceoff won against Sean Monahan
·
WSH 2·CBJ 1
3rd·17:32
Goalie Stopped
WSH 2·CBJ 1
3rd·17:30
Boone Jenner Snap Shot saved by Clay Stevenson
·
WSH 2·CBJ 1
3rd·17:13
Sean Monahan hit Anthony Beauvillier
·
WSH 2·CBJ 1
3rd·16:59
Anthony Beauvillier Backhand saved by Jet Greaves
·
WSH 2·CBJ 1
3rd·16:56
Justin Sourdif Wrist Shot Short
·
WSH 2·CBJ 1
3rd·16:08
Adam Fantilli faceoff won against Hendrix Lapierre
·
WSH 2·CBJ 1
3rd·16:08
Off-side
WSH 2·CBJ 1
3rd·16:00
Hendrix Lapierre hit Ivan Provorov
·
WSH 2·CBJ 1
3rd·15:53
Hendrix Lapierre faceoff won against Adam Fantilli
·
WSH 2·CBJ 1
3rd·15:53
Jakob Chychrun Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (32), Alex Ovechkin (32)
· ·
WSH 2·CBJ 1
3rd·15:28
Alex Ovechkin shot blocked by Dante Fabbro
·
WSH 1·CBJ 1
3rd·15:03
Cole Hutson Slap Shot saved by Jet Greaves
·
WSH 1·CBJ 1
3rd·14:49
Alex Ovechkin Snap Shot saved by Jet Greaves
·
WSH 1·CBJ 1
3rd·14:11
Dylan Strome faceoff won against Charlie Coyle
·
WSH 1·CBJ 1

Betting line

CBJ -1.5·O/U 6.5·WSH +130/CBJ -155

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ashington Capitals went into Columbus Blue Jackets and beat them, 2–1.

WSH +1.5 cashed (CBJ lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Mason Marchment · CBJ16:240.4557.1%64.5%16:24 TOI · 0.45 iXG · 57.1% CF · 64.5% xGF
Tom Wilson · WSH16:360.4251.9%51.5%16:36 TOI · 0.42 iXG · 51.9% CF · 51.5% xGF
Brandon Duhaime · WSH10:060.4069.2%72.5%10:06 TOI · 0.40 iXG · 69.2% CF · 72.5% xGF
Kirill Marchenko · CBJ19:120.4062.9%66.1%19:12 TOI · 0.40 iXG · 62.9% CF · 66.1% xGF
Anthony Beauvillier · WSH16:540.4056.7%53.3%16:54 TOI · 0.40 iXG · 56.7% CF · 53.3% xGF
Ilya Protas · WSH16:120.4059.4%57.9%16:12 TOI · 0.40 iXG · 59.4% CF · 57.9% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Clay Stevenson · WSH27–1.964+1.9427–1 · .964 SV% · +1.94 GSAx
Jet Greaves · CBJ19–2.905+0.8719–2 · .905 SV% · +0.87 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.0%

ensemble · CBJ favored

Elo Static
55.0%
P(CBJ win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
55.0%
P(CBJ win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
55.0%
P(CBJ win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+130

Close price

+130

Open no-vig

41.7%

Close no-vig

41.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WSH at CBJ?: The model favors WSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Washington CapitalsColumbus Blue Jackets

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