Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ANA at MIN?

The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1MIN

ANA

42-33-6

MIN

46-24-12

NHLTue, Apr 14FinalSeriesMIN wins series 3-0VegasANA -175

ANA · top performer

Mason McTavish

C · #23

2Points

—

SOG

MIN · top performer

Robby Fabbri

C · #21

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CarlssonC · #91	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	21:00
C. GauthierLW · #61	0	1	-1	4	1	0	0	18:14
M. GranlundC · #64	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	20:53
A. KillornLW · #17	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	20:24
M. McTavishC · #23	2	0	0	5	1	0	0	17:36
R. PoehlingC · #25	0	1	-2	1	0	1	0	14:48
B. SenneckeRW · #45	0	0	1	2	1	0	2	18:33
T. TerryRW · #19	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	17:54
F. VatranoRW · #77	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	8:31
J. VielLW · #28	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	11:16
T. WasheC · #42	0	0	-2	1	4	0	0	9:48

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. CarlsonD · #74	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	21:43
D. HellesonD · #14	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	14:34
T. HindsD · #60	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	15:06
J. LaCombeD · #2	0	1	-1	3	0	1	0	24:14
P. MintyukovD · #98	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	17:44
I. MooreD · #3	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	7:27
J. TroubaD · #65	0	0	-2	2	0	1	0	19:22

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. DostalG · #1	20	3	17	.850	56:53

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. Aube-KubelRW · #16	0	1	1	1	2	1	0	11:58
B. BrinkRW · #10	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	17:03
R. FabbriC · #21	1	0	1	4	2	0	0	12:08
N. FolignoLW · #71	0	1	1	0	3	0	0	15:48
H. HaightC · #37	1	0	0	2	2	0	2	12:57
M. JohanssonLW · #90	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	13:34
B. JonesC · #39	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	13:23
M. McCarronC · #47	0	0	0	2	2	0	2	14:23
N. SturmC · #78	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	13:56
V. TarasenkoRW · #91	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	16:17
Y. TreninC · #13	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	15:49
D. YurovRW · #22	1	0	1	4	4	0	0	16:54

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BrodinD · #25	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	18:08
V. Gustafsson NybergD · #6	0	0	2	0	1	3	0	20:38
D. HuntD · #48	0	0	-1	0	0	2	0	21:01
M. KierstedD · #26	0	0	2	0	0	5	0	20:19
J. MiddletonD · #5	0	0	1	0	2	0	2	18:43
J. PetryD · #2	0	0	0	1	2	2	2	20:06

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WallstedtG · #30	37	2	35	.946	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

ANA

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

MIN wins series 3-0

Nov 15

ANA0@

MIN2

Jan 3

MIN5@

ANA2

Apr 15

ANA2@

MIN3today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ANA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

ANA-17564%

MIN+14541%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ANA -1.5↗SpreadBet ANA -1.5↗

Line movement · 65 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIN beat ANA 3-2. R. Fabbri led the way — 1 G · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
ANA	1	0	1	2
MIN	1	1	1	3

Period scoring

ANA won 0 · MIN won 1

ANA

MIN

Play-by-play · 332 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
ANA 2·MIN 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
ANA 2·MIN 3
3rd·19:53
John Carlson Backhand Wide Left
·
ANA 2·MIN 3
3rd·19:51
Mikael Granlund faceoff won against Hunter Haight
· ·
ANA 2·MIN 3
3rd·19:51
Icing
ANA 2·MIN 3
3rd·19:46
Nico Sturm Wrist Shot Wide Right
ANA 2·MIN 3
3rd·19:43
Cutter Gauthier Backhand Wide Right
·
ANA 2·MIN 3
3rd·19:39
Mikael Granlund faceoff won against Hunter Haight
· ·
ANA 2·MIN 3
3rd·19:39
Off-side
ANA 2·MIN 3
3rd·19:14
Hunter Haight faceoff won against Mikael Granlund
· ·
ANA 2·MIN 3
3rd·19:14
Mason McTavish Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Mikael Granlund (19), Cutter Gauthier (28)
· ·
ANA 2·MIN 3
3rd·19:01
Nico Sturm faceoff won against Mikael Granlund
·
ANA 1·MIN 3
3rd·19:01
Goalie Stopped
ANA 1·MIN 3
3rd·19:00
Mikael Granlund Snap Shot saved by Jesper Wallstedt
·
ANA 1·MIN 3
3rd·18:52
Mikael Granlund hit Nicolas Aube-Kubel
·
ANA 1·MIN 3
3rd·18:44
Mason McTavish Tip-In saved by Jesper Wallstedt
·
ANA 1·MIN 3
3rd·18:35
Leo Carlsson shot blocked by Viking Gustafsson Nyberg
·
ANA 1·MIN 3
3rd·17:54
Cutter Gauthier Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
ANA 1·MIN 3
3rd·17:51
Nico Sturm faceoff won against Mikael Granlund
·
ANA 1·MIN 3
3rd·17:51
Goalie Stopped
ANA 1·MIN 3
3rd·17:49
Cutter Gauthier Wrist Shot saved by Jesper Wallstedt
·
ANA 1·MIN 3
3rd·17:30
Mikael Granlund faceoff won against Nico Sturm
·
ANA 1·MIN 3
3rd·17:30
Icing
ANA 1·MIN 3
3rd·17:26
Jesper Wallstedt Wrist Shot Wide Right
ANA 1·MIN 3
3rd·17:23
Robby Fabbri hit Beckett Sennecke
·
ANA 1·MIN 3
3rd·16:58
Beckett Sennecke Wrist Shot saved by Jesper Wallstedt
·
ANA 1·MIN 3
3rd·16:55
Jeff Petry hit Mason McTavish
·
ANA 1·MIN 3
3rd·16:47
Beckett Sennecke shot blocked by Jeff Petry
·
ANA 1·MIN 3
3rd·16:39
Mason McTavish Wrist Shot Above Crossbar
·
ANA 1·MIN 3
3rd·15:41
Marcus Johansson shot blocked by Jackson LaCombe
·
ANA 1·MIN 3

Betting line

ANA -1.5·O/U 6.5·ANA -175/MIN +145

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

innesota Wild held off Anaheim Ducks, 3–2.

MIN +1.5 cashed (ANA lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.4%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
62.4%
P(MIN win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
62.4%
P(MIN win)
14%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
62.4%
P(MIN win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+145

Close price

+145

Open no-vig

39.1%

Close no-vig

39.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ANA at MIN?: The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Anaheim DucksMinnesota Wild

Elsewhere in the NHL