Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CAR at NYI?

The model favors CAR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1CAR

CAR

53-22-7

NYI

43-34-5

NHLTue, Apr 14FinalSeriesCAR wins series 3-0VegasNYI -185

CAR · top performer

Nikolaj Ehlers

LW · #27

1Points

—

SOG

NYI · top performer

Bo Horvat

C · #14

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BlakeRW · #53	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	12:58
S. Brind'AmourC · #76	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	15:41
W. CarrierLW · #28	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	10:40
N. DeslauriersLW · #44	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	11:28
N. EhlersLW · #27	1	0	1	5	0	0	0	15:02
M. JankowskiLW · #77	1	0	1	1	1	3	0	17:34
J. KotkaniemiC · #82	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	17:29
J. MartinookLW · #48	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	18:44
B. NadeauLW · #29	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	16:40
E. RobinsonLW · #50	0	0	1	3	1	0	2	14:07
L. StankovenC · #22	0	1	1	2	1	1	0	12:51
F. Unger SorumRW · #36	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	14:35

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. GostisbehereD · #4	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	19:17
C. LegaultD · #62	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	22:01
A. NikishinD · #21	0	1	1	0	0	3	0	23:40
J. NystromD · #64	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	15:51
M. ReillyD · #6	0	0	0	1	0	2	2	22:10
R. SeeleyD · #91	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	15:12

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BussiG · #32	30	1	29	.967	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BarzalC · #13	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	19:55
C. CizikasC · #53	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:25
V. EklundLW · #73	0	1	0	2	2	0	0	15:30
L. FoudyC · #43	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	11:17
E. HeinemanLW · #51	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	15:47
S. HolmstromRW · #92	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	16:37
B. HorvatC · #14	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	20:18
A. LeeLW · #27	0	0	-1	3	1	1	0	16:31
J. PageauC · #44	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	14:56
O. PalatLW · #81	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:48
C. RitchieC · #64	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	15:55
B. SchennC · #10	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	19:09

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. DeAngeloD · #77	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	19:38
I. GeorgeD · #36	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	16:33
S. MayfieldD · #24	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	17:45
A. PelechD · #3	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	17:30
M. SchaeferD · #48	0	0	-1	5	0	0	0	24:13
C. SoucyD · #4	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	15:44

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. RittichG · #33	21	2	19	.905	56:29

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

CAR

Away

Stat

NYI

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

CAR wins series 3-0

Oct 30

NYI2@

CAR6

Apr 4

NYI3@

CAR4

Apr 14

CAR2@

NYI1today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYI -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CAR+15439%

NYI-18565%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYI -1.5↗SpreadBet NYI -1.5↗

Line movement · 66 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CAR beat NYI 2-1. N. Ehlers led the way — 1 G · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
CAR	1	0	1	2
NYI	0	1	0	1

Period scoring

CAR won 2 · NYI won 1

CAR

NYI

Play-by-play · 276 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
CAR 2·NYI 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CAR 2·NYI 1
3rd·19:58
Matthew Schaefer Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
CAR 2·NYI 1
3rd·19:56
Matthew Schaefer shot blocked by Jordan Martinook
·
CAR 2·NYI 1
3rd·19:51
Bo Horvat faceoff won against Skyler Brind'Amour
·
CAR 2·NYI 1
3rd·19:51
Goalie Stopped
CAR 2·NYI 1
3rd·19:49
Mathew Barzal Wrist Shot saved by Brandon Bussi
·
CAR 2·NYI 1
3rd·19:41
Skyler Brind'Amour faceoff won against Bo Horvat
·
CAR 2·NYI 1
3rd·19:41
Puck in Crowd
CAR 2·NYI 1
3rd·19:33
Bo Horvat shot blocked by Mark Jankowski
·
CAR 2·NYI 1
3rd·19:03
Matthew Schaefer Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
CAR 2·NYI 1
3rd·18:52
Mathew Barzal shot blocked by Mark Jankowski
·
CAR 2·NYI 1
3rd·18:50
Bo Horvat faceoff won against Mark Jankowski
·
CAR 2·NYI 1
3rd·18:50
Puck in Crowd
CAR 2·NYI 1
3rd·18:34
Jean-Gabriel Pageau faceoff won against Mark Jankowski
·
CAR 2·NYI 1
3rd·18:34
Timeout - Home
CAR 2·NYI 1
3rd·18:34
Puck in Crowd
CAR 2·NYI 1
3rd·18:31
Giveaway by Mathew Barzal
CAR 2·NYI 1
3rd·17:58
Giveaway by Matthew Schaefer
CAR 2·NYI 1
3rd·17:55
Jesperi Kotkaniemi shot blocked by Calum Ritchie
·
CAR 2·NYI 1
3rd·17:51
Giveaway by Matthew Schaefer
CAR 2·NYI 1
3rd·17:42
Jean-Gabriel Pageau faceoff won against Skyler Brind'Amour
·
CAR 2·NYI 1
3rd·17:42
Icing
CAR 2·NYI 1
3rd·17:38
Jesperi Kotkaniemi Snap Shot Wide Left
CAR 2·NYI 1
3rd·17:35
Matthew Schaefer Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
CAR 2·NYI 1
3rd·17:27
Giveaway by Joel Nystrom
CAR 2·NYI 1
3rd·17:19
Mathew Barzal shot blocked by Jesperi Kotkaniemi
·
CAR 2·NYI 1
3rd·17:15
Jean-Gabriel Pageau faceoff won against Skyler Brind'Amour
·
CAR 2·NYI 1
3rd·17:15
Goalie Stopped
CAR 2·NYI 1
3rd·17:13
Adam Pelech Wrist Shot saved by Brandon Bussi
·
CAR 2·NYI 1

Betting line

NYI -1.5·O/U 6.5·CAR +154/NYI -185

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

arolina Hurricanes went into New York Islanders and beat them, 2–1.

CAR +1.5 cashed (NYI lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Jackson Blake · CAR13:180.8157.1%70.2%13:18 TOI · 0.81 iXG · 57.1% CF · 70.2% xGF
#848420316:360.6445.7%60.5%16:36 TOI · 0.64 iXG · 45.7% CF · 60.5% xGF
Matthew Schaefer · NYI24:300.5275.9%76.0%24:30 TOI · 0.52 iXG · 75.9% CF · 76.0% xGF
Bo Horvat · NYI20:300.4468.8%65.7%20:30 TOI · 0.44 iXG · 68.8% CF · 65.7% xGF
Anders Lee · NYI16:420.4367.6%64.9%16:42 TOI · 0.43 iXG · 67.6% CF · 64.9% xGF
#848422116:120.3261.3%49.0%16:12 TOI · 0.32 iXG · 61.3% CF · 49.0% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Brandon Bussi · CAR29–1.967+2.0629–1 · .967 SV% · +2.06 GSAx
David Rittich · NYI19–2.905+0.1219–2 · .905 SV% · +0.12 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

47.6%

ensemble · CAR favored

Elo Static
47.6%
P(NYI win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
47.6%
P(NYI win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
47.6%
P(NYI win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+154

Close price

+154

Open no-vig

37.8%

Close no-vig

37.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CAR at NYI?: The model favors CAR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Carolina HurricanesNew York Islanders

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