Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LA at VAN?

The model favors VAN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1VAN

35-26-20

VAN

25-48-8

NHLTue, Apr 14FinalSeriesLA wins series 3-1VegasLA -162

LA · top performer

Quinton Byfield

RW · #55

2Points

—

SOG

VAN · top performer

Jake DeBrusk

LW · #74

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ArmiaRW · #40	0	0	-1	4	0	1	0	13:27
Q. ByfieldRW · #55	1	1	1	3	2	0	2	19:19
S. HeleniusC · #79	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	5:24
M. JosephRW · #17	0	0	-1	1	2	0	5	6:22
A. KempeRW · #9	1	0	1	5	1	0	2	20:22
A. KopitarC · #11	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	22:40
A. LaferriereRW · #14	1	1	1	3	4	0	0	20:34
S. LaughtonC · #21	0	0	-1	3	2	0	0	15:39
T. MooreLW · #12	0	1	0	2	1	1	0	18:37
A. PanarinLW · #10	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	23:01
T. WardRW · #52	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	5:52
J. WrightRW · #53	0	0	-1	2	1	1	2	13:17

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AndersonD · #44	0	0	2	0	1	2	0	19:50
C. CeciD · #5	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	18:25
B. ClarkeD · #92	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	22:39
D. DoughtyD · #8	0	1	1	2	2	2	0	22:20
B. DumoulinD · #2	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	17:15
J. EdmundsonD · #6	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	18:48

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. KuemperG · #35	25	4	21	.840	62:34

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. BluegerC · #53	0	0	-2	1	0	1	0	18:34
B. BoeserRW · #6	0	1	-1	2	0	0	0	22:00
J. DeBruskLW · #74	2	0	2	6	1	0	0	17:46
C. DouglasC · #42	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	7:12
N. HoglanderLW · #21	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	14:03
L. KarlssonC · #94	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	13:23
T. MuellerC · #39	0	0	-1	0	0	0	2	9:25
D. O'ConnorLW · #18	0	0	-1	2	2	0	0	16:43
L. OhgrenLW · #92	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	17:18
E. PetterssonC · #40	0	2	2	1	0	1	0	18:02
A. RatyC · #54	0	0	-1	0	2	1	0	12:02
M. RossiC · #93	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	16:08

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BuiumD · #24	1	0	-1	2	1	2	0	25:00
F. HronekD · #17	0	1	0	1	1	0	9	23:46
K. KudryavtsevD · #59	0	1	2	1	1	0	0	15:04
M. PetterssonD · #29	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	21:53
Elias N. PetterssonD · #25	1	0	1	1	4	0	0	13:15
T. WillanderD · #5	0	1	-2	3	3	1	0	21:20

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. LankinenG · #32	34	3	31	.912	62:58

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

Away

Stat

VAN

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

LA wins series 3-1

Nov 30

VAN1@

LA2

Mar 27

LA4@

VAN0

Apr 10

VAN1@

LA4

Apr 15

LA3@

VAN4today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

LA-16262%

VAN+13642%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LA -1.5↗SpreadBet LA -1.5↗

Line movement · 88 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

VAN beat LA 4-3. J. DeBrusk led the way — 2 G · 6 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
LA	1	2	0	0	3
VAN	1	2	0	1	4

Period scoring

LA won 0 · VAN won 1

VAN

Play-by-play · 305 plays

period

event

player

OT·2:58
Game End
LA 3·VAN 4
OT·2:58
End of OT
LA 3·VAN 4
OT·2:58
Jake DeBrusk Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (36), Tom Willander (16)
· ·
LA 3·VAN 4
OT·0:43
Aatu Räty faceoff won against Quinton Byfield
·
LA 3·VAN 3
OT·0:43
Puck Frozen - Goalie
LA 3·VAN 3
OT·0:40
Elias Pettersson Wrist Shot Above Crossbar
· ·
LA 3·VAN 3
OT·0:00
Elias Pettersson faceoff won against Scott Laughton
· ·
LA 3·VAN 3
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
LA 3·VAN 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
LA 3·VAN 3
3rd·19:56
Giveaway by Marcus Pettersson
· ·
LA 3·VAN 3
3rd·19:52
Giveaway by Brock Boeser
LA 3·VAN 3
3rd·19:21
Anze Kopitar faceoff won against Teddy Blueger
·
LA 3·VAN 3
3rd·19:21
Icing
LA 3·VAN 3
3rd·19:10
Scott Laughton faceoff won against Teddy Blueger
·
LA 3·VAN 3
3rd·19:10
Off-side
LA 3·VAN 3
3rd·19:02
Filip Hronek shot blocked by Trevor Moore
·
LA 3·VAN 3
3rd·18:40
Giveaway by Drew O'Connor
LA 3·VAN 3
3rd·18:23
Scott Laughton faceoff won against Marco Rossi
·
LA 3·VAN 3
3rd·18:23
Puck Frozen - Goalie
LA 3·VAN 3
3rd·18:06
Brandt Clarke Wrist Shot saved by Kevin Lankinen
·
LA 3·VAN 3
3rd·17:30
Aatu Räty faceoff won against Anze Kopitar
·
LA 3·VAN 3
3rd·17:30
Puck in Netting
LA 3·VAN 3
3rd·17:13
Drew O'Connor hit Quinton Byfield
·
LA 3·VAN 3
3rd·16:58
Trevor Moore Backhand saved by Kevin Lankinen
·
LA 3·VAN 3
3rd·16:34
Scott Laughton faceoff won against Marco Rossi
·
LA 3·VAN 3
3rd·16:34
Goalie Stopped
LA 3·VAN 3
3rd·16:31
Marco Rossi Wrist Shot saved by Darcy Kuemper
·
LA 3·VAN 3
3rd·16:09
Aatu Räty faceoff won against Quinton Byfield
·
LA 3·VAN 3
3rd·16:09
Goalie Stopped
LA 3·VAN 3
3rd·16:07
Scott Laughton Wrist Shot saved by Kevin Lankinen
·
LA 3·VAN 3

Betting line

LA -1.5·O/U 6.5·LA -162/VAN +136

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ancouver Canucks held off Los Angeles Kings, 4–3 in overtime.

VAN +1.5 cashed (LA lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

45.6%

ensemble · LA favored

Elo Static
45.6%
P(VAN win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
45.6%
P(VAN win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
45.6%
P(VAN win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+136

Close price

+136

Open no-vig

40.7%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LA at VAN?: The model favors VAN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Los Angeles KingsVancouver Canucks

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