Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WPG at UTA?

The model favors WPG, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2UTA

WPG

35-34-12

UTA

43-32-6

NHLTue, Apr 14FinalSeriesUTA wins series 3-0VegasUTAH -218

WPG · top performer

Kyle Connor

LW · #81

2Points

—

SOG

UTA · top performer

Nick Schmaltz

C · #8

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. ChibrikovRW · #90	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	9:28
K. ConnorLW · #81	1	1	-1	6	2	1	0	20:52
C. KoepkeLW · #45	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	12:46
B. LambertC · #93	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	13:26
A. LowryC · #17	0	0	-1	2	0	1	2	15:54
N. NiederreiterRW · #62	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	12:20
C. PerfettiC · #91	0	0	-2	1	0	2	0	16:56
I. RosenRW · #27	1	0	-1	1	0	0	0	11:48
M. ScheifeleC · #55	1	1	-1	2	0	1	0	21:14
J. ToewsC · #19	0	0	-1	0	0	2	2	15:05
G. VilardiC · #13	0	2	0	1	0	0	0	17:43
B. YagerC · #29	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	10:16

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BrysonD · #78	0	0	-1	1	2	2	0	17:04
D. DeMeloD · #2	0	0	0	1	2	1	2	17:57
V. HeinolaD · #34	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	14:54
C. MillerD · #6	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	15:46
J. MorrisseyD · #44	0	0	-2	2	0	2	0	25:50
D. SambergD · #54	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	23:18

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. ComrieG · #1	35	4	31	.886	59:26

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. CarconeLW · #53	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	14:28
L. CooleyC · #92	1	1	1	3	0	0	0	18:17
L. CrouseLW · #67	0	0	-1	1	2	0	2	17:32
D. GuentherRW · #11	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	18:22
C. KellerRW · #9	0	1	-1	2	0	0	0	20:59
A. KerfootC · #15	1	0	2	3	2	0	0	15:54
L. O'BrienC · #38	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	8:47
J. PeterkaRW · #77	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	15:02
N. SchmaltzC · #8	2	0	-1	8	1	2	0	21:21
K. StenlundC · #82	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	13:52
B. TanevLW · #13	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	9:12
K. YamamotoRW · #56	0	0	1	3	2	0	0	10:14

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. ColeD · #28	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	19:50
S. DurziD · #50	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	9:46
J. MarinoD · #6	0	0	3	0	1	1	0	18:40
N. SchmidtD · #88	0	1	3	1	0	1	0	18:16
M. SergachevD · #98	0	1	-1	6	0	1	0	26:34
M. WeegarD · #52	0	0	-1	0	0	1	2	18:53

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. VejmelkaG · #70	24	3	21	.875	59:29

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

WPG

Away

Stat

UTA

Home

Shots

66.7

PCT

40.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

UTA wins series 3-0

Oct 26

UTA3@

WPG2

Dec 22

WPG3@

UTA4

Apr 15

WPG3@

UTA5today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

UTA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

WPG+18036%

UTA-21869%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet UTA -1.5↗SpreadBet UTA -1.5↗

Line movement · 84 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

UTA beat WPG 5-3. N. Schmaltz led the way — 2 G · 8 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
WPG	0	1	2	3
UTA	1	1	3	5

Period scoring

WPG won 0 · UTA won 2

WPG

UTA

Play-by-play · 319 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
WPG 3·UTA 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
WPG 3·UTA 5
3rd·19:57
Logan Cooley Snap Shot saved by Eric Comrie
·
WPG 3·UTA 5
3rd·19:36
Logan Cooley faceoff won against Brayden Yager
·
WPG 3·UTA 5
3rd·19:36
Alexander Kerfoot Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: none
WPG 3·UTA 5
3rd·19:19
Jonathan Toews faceoff won against Kevin Stenlund
·
WPG 3·UTA 4
3rd·19:19
Icing
WPG 3·UTA 4
3rd·19:14
Kevin Stenlund hit Mark Scheifele
·
WPG 3·UTA 4
3rd·19:14
Giveaway by Mark Scheifele
WPG 3·UTA 4
3rd·19:11
Jonathan Toews faceoff won against Kevin Stenlund
·
WPG 3·UTA 4
3rd·19:11
Timeout - Visitor
WPG 3·UTA 4
3rd·19:11
Icing
WPG 3·UTA 4
3rd·18:21
Mikhail Sergachev Wrist Shot saved by Eric Comrie
·
WPG 3·UTA 4
3rd·17:45
Giveaway by Mark Scheifele
WPG 3·UTA 4
3rd·16:57
Giveaway by Brad Lambert
WPG 3·UTA 4
3rd·16:44
Kevin Stenlund faceoff won against Jonathan Toews
·
WPG 3·UTA 4
3rd·16:44
Puck in Netting
WPG 3·UTA 4
3rd·16:42
Colin Miller shot blocked by John Marino
·
WPG 3·UTA 4
3rd·16:40
Brandon Tanev hit Isak Rosen
·
WPG 3·UTA 4
3rd·16:25
Cole Perfetti shot blocked by Nick Schmaltz
· ·
WPG 3·UTA 4
3rd·16:10
Ville Heinola Snap Shot saved by Karel Vejmelka
·
WPG 3·UTA 4
3rd·14:58
Josh Morrissey shot blocked by Nick Schmaltz
·
WPG 3·UTA 4
3rd·14:55
Adam Lowry faceoff won against Kevin Stenlund
·
WPG 3·UTA 4
3rd·14:55
Goalie Stopped
WPG 3·UTA 4
3rd·14:53
Jacob Bryson Snap Shot saved by Karel Vejmelka
·
WPG 3·UTA 4
3rd·14:50
Giveaway by Nate Schmidt
WPG 3·UTA 4
3rd·14:47
John Marino hit Jacob Bryson
·
WPG 3·UTA 4
3rd·14:23
Logan Cooley faceoff won against Adam Lowry
·
WPG 3·UTA 4
3rd·14:23
Isak Rosen Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: none
WPG 3·UTA 4
3rd·14:20
Alexander Kerfoot faceoff won against Brad Lambert
·
WPG 2·UTA 4

Betting line

UTA -1.5·O/U 6.5·WPG +180/UTA -218

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

tah Mammoth held off Winnipeg Jets, 5–3.

UTA -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.8%

ensemble · UTA favored

Elo Static
63.8%
P(UTA win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
63.8%
P(UTA win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
63.8%
P(UTA win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+180

Close price

+180

Open no-vig

34.3%

Close no-vig

34.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WPG at UTA?: The model favors WPG, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Winnipeg JetsUtah Mammoth

Elsewhere in the NHL