Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PIT at STL?

The model favors PIT, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2STL

PIT

41-25-16

STL

36-33-12

NHLTue, Apr 14FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasSTL -218

PIT · top performer

Avery Hayes

RW · #85

2Points

—

SOG

STL · top performer

Dylan Holloway

LW · #81

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. AcciariC · #55	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	14:05
J. BrazeauRW · #16	0	0	-1	1	0	2	0	16:41
R. Harvey-PinardLW · #48	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	11:01
K. HayesRW · #13	0	2	3	2	0	0	0	14:01
A. HayesRW · #85	2	0	1	3	2	1	0	13:48
B. KindelC · #81	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	18:05
V. KoivunenRW · #41	0	0	-2	2	0	1	0	18:09
J. KoppanenLW · #15	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	10:51
A. ManthaRW · #39	1	1	-1	3	0	0	2	18:23
R. McGroartyRW · #2	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:21
T. NovakC · #18	0	0	-2	2	0	0	0	19:56
E. SoderblomLW · #25	1	0	-1	1	1	0	2	13:43

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CliftonD · #75	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	18:54
R. GravesD · #27	0	0	0	1	5	1	0	14:20
J. LivanavageD · #57	0	0	-2	0	0	1	0	25:14
R. SheaD · #5	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	21:58
I. SolovyovD · #7	0	0	0	2	2	1	2	14:31
J. St. IvanyD · #3	0	0	-1	0	4	0	0	21:00

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. SilovsG · #37	9	2	7	.778	17:30
S. SkinnerG · #74	21	4	17	.810	40:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. BuchnevichLW · #89	1	0	-1	2	0	0	0	15:51
J. DrouinLW · #92	0	1	-1	3	1	0	0	14:45
D. DvorskyRW · #54	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	12:48
D. HollowayLW · #81	2	1	2	5	1	0	2	19:02
J. KyrouRW · #25	0	1	-1	2	0	0	0	13:43
J. NeighboursLW · #63	0	2	0	1	2	0	0	13:16
J. SnuggerudRW · #21	2	2	2	3	1	2	0	16:40
O. SundqvistC · #70	1	0	0	1	4	0	0	12:30
P. SuterC · #22	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	16:00
R. ThomasC · #18	0	2	2	1	0	1	0	18:54
A. ToropchenkoRW · #13	0	1	0	1	4	0	0	12:47
N. WalkerLW · #26	0	0	0	0	3	1	2	11:39

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. BrobergD · #6	0	1	3	3	0	0	0	21:38
C. FowlerD · #17	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	23:26
M. KesselD · #51	0	0	-1	1	2	4	0	12:54
L. MaillouxD · #23	1	1	1	4	0	1	0	21:27
C. ParaykoD · #55	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	23:36
T. TuckerD · #75	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:04

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BinningtonG · #50	23	5	18	.783	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

STL

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

33.3

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Oct 27

STL3@

PIT6

Apr 15

PIT5@

STL7today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

STL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PIT+18036%

STL-21869%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet STL -1.5↗SpreadBet STL -1.5↗

Line movement · 95 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

STL beat PIT 7-5. D. Holloway led the way — 2 G · 1 A · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
PIT	3	1	1	5
STL	1	3	3	7

Period scoring

PIT won 1 · STL won 2

PIT

STL

Play-by-play · 297 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
PIT 5·STL 7
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
PIT 5·STL 7
3rd·19:47
Philip Broberg Slap Shot saved by Arturs Silovs
·
PIT 5·STL 7
3rd·19:46
Dalibor Dvorsky faceoff won against Joona Koppanen
·
PIT 5·STL 7
3rd·19:46
Ilya Solovyov Holding against Alexey Toropchenko
·
PIT 5·STL 7
3rd·19:36
Oskar Sundqvist faceoff won against Thomas Novak
· ·
PIT 5·STL 7
3rd·19:36
Icing
PIT 5·STL 7
3rd·18:42
Takeaway by Kevin Hayes
·
PIT 5·STL 7
3rd·18:17
Robert Thomas faceoff won against Kevin Hayes
· ·
PIT 5·STL 7
3rd·18:17
Dylan Holloway Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Jimmy Snuggerud (29), Logan Mailloux (8)
· ·
PIT 5·STL 7
3rd·17:42
Ben Kindel Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
PIT 5·STL 6
3rd·17:26
Thomas Novak Wrist Shot saved by Jordan Binnington
· ·
PIT 5·STL 6
3rd·16:59
Takeaway by Anthony Mantha
PIT 5·STL 6
3rd·16:11
Dalibor Dvorsky Tip-In saved by Arturs Silovs
·
PIT 5·STL 6
3rd·16:07
Dalibor Dvorsky faceoff won against Joona Koppanen
·
PIT 5·STL 6
3rd·16:07
Hand Pass
PIT 5·STL 6
3rd·16:00
Oskar Sundqvist faceoff won against Ben Kindel
·
PIT 5·STL 6
3rd·16:00
Goalie Stopped
PIT 5·STL 6
3rd·15:58
Anthony Mantha Wrist Shot saved by Jordan Binnington
·
PIT 5·STL 6
3rd·15:26
Giveaway by Connor Clifton
PIT 5·STL 6
3rd·14:48
Kevin Hayes faceoff won against Robert Thomas
· ·
PIT 5·STL 6
3rd·14:48
Goalie Stopped
PIT 5·STL 6
3rd·14:46
Logan Mailloux Wrist Shot saved by Arturs Silovs
·
PIT 5·STL 6
3rd·14:41
Dalibor Dvorsky faceoff won against Ben Kindel
·
PIT 5·STL 6
3rd·14:41
Goalie Stopped
PIT 5·STL 6
3rd·14:39
Jonathan Drouin Wrist Shot saved by Arturs Silovs
·
PIT 5·STL 6
3rd·14:23
Logan Mailloux shot blocked by Ville Koivunen
·
PIT 5·STL 6
3rd·13:47
Giveaway by Pavel Buchnevich
PIT 5·STL 6
3rd·13:29
Colton Parayko Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
PIT 5·STL 6
3rd·13:25
Giveaway by Connor Clifton
PIT 5·STL 6

Betting line

STL -1.5·O/U 6.5·PIT +180/STL -218

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

t. Louis Blues held off Pittsburgh Penguins, 7–5.

STL -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 5.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.0%

ensemble · STL favored

Elo Static
53.0%
P(STL win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
53.0%
P(STL win)
14%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
53.0%
P(STL win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+180

Close price

+180

Open no-vig

34.3%

Close no-vig

34.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PIT at STL?: The model favors PIT, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Pittsburgh PenguinsSt. Louis Blues

Elsewhere in the NHL