Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MTL at PHI?

The model favors PHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2PHI

MTL

48-24-10

PHI

43-27-12

NHLTue, Apr 14FinalSeriesPHI wins series 3-0VegasMTL -305

MTL · top performer

Cole Caufield

RW · #13

0Points

—

SOG

PHI · top performer

Matvei Michkov

RW · #39

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BolducRW · #76	0	0	-1	1	4	1	0	12:57
C. CaufieldRW · #13	0	0	-1	10	1	0	0	21:21
K. DachC · #77	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	11:08
I. DemidovRW · #93	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	20:06
J. EvansC · #71	1	0	0	3	2	0	0	11:15
B. GallagherRW · #11	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	11:34
O. KapanenC · #91	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:16
A. NewhookC · #15	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	15:39
J. SlafkovskyLW · #20	0	0	-3	2	1	0	0	22:29
N. SuzukiC · #14	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	22:54
A. TexierLW · #85	0	1	1	0	1	0	2	16:54
J. VelenoC · #90	0	1	0	0	5	0	0	10:16

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. EngstromD · #42	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	15:28
K. GuhleD · #21	0	1	1	3	3	0	0	17:20
L. HutsonD · #48	0	0	-1	0	0	3	0	26:08
D. ReinbacherD · #64	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	15:00
J. StrubleD · #47	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	17:17
A. XhekajD · #72	0	1	-1	2	5	2	0	19:46

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DobesG · #75	25	4	21	.840	56:12

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. BarkeyC · #52	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	17:38
A. BumpLW · #20	1	0	1	1	2	1	0	16:53
N. CatesLW · #27	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	17:50
T. FoersterRW · #71	0	0	0	2	0	1	2	18:17
J. GaucherC · #78	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	8:56
L. GlendeningC · #41	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:57
C. GrundstromRW · #91	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	13:10
G. HathawayRW · #19	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	12:43
P. MartoneRW · #94	1	1	1	5	2	0	0	17:37
M. MichkovRW · #39	1	2	2	8	0	1	0	16:18
A. RichardC · #90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7:08
G. WilsonLW · #10	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	7:53

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. AndraeD · #36	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	21:19
O. BonkD · #59	1	1	1	1	2	0	0	16:28
D. JiricekD · #5	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	19:37
N. JuulsenD · #47	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	21:45
H. McDonaldD · #75	0	1	3	0	5	1	4	15:11
N. SeelerD · #24	0	0	-1	1	1	6	2	26:32

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. ErssonG · #33	29	2	27	.931	59:48

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

MTL

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

PHI wins series 3-0

Nov 5

PHI5@

MTL4

Dec 17

PHI4@

MTL1

Apr 14

MTL2@

PHI4today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MTL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MTL-30575%

PHI+24529%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗

Line movement · 39 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHI beat MTL 4-2. M. Michkov led the way — 1 G · 2 A · 8 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
MTL	0	2	0	2
PHI	2	1	1	4

Period scoring

MTL won 1 · PHI won 2

MTL

PHI

Play-by-play · 287 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
MTL 2·PHI 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
MTL 2·PHI 4
3rd·19:31
Noah Juulsen shot blocked by Lane Hutson
·
MTL 2·PHI 4
3rd·19:21
Garnet Hathaway shot blocked by Ivan Demidov
·
MTL 2·PHI 4
3rd·19:21
Takeaway by Garnet Hathaway
MTL 2·PHI 4
3rd·19:10
Cole Caufield Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
MTL 2·PHI 4
3rd·18:56
Luke Glendening faceoff won against Alex Newhook
·
MTL 2·PHI 4
3rd·18:56
Goalie Stopped
MTL 2·PHI 4
3rd·18:54
Alex Newhook Wrist Shot saved by Samuel Ersson
·
MTL 2·PHI 4
3rd·18:37
Lane Hutson Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
MTL 2·PHI 4
3rd·18:23
Alex Newhook faceoff won against Noah Cates
·
MTL 2·PHI 4
3rd·18:23
Off-side
MTL 2·PHI 4
3rd·18:18
Giveaway by Juraj Slafkovský
MTL 2·PHI 4
3rd·18:14
Luke Glendening faceoff won against Alex Newhook
·
MTL 2·PHI 4
3rd·18:14
Puck in Crowd
MTL 2·PHI 4
3rd·17:50
Oliver Bonk hit Lane Hutson
·
MTL 2·PHI 4
3rd·17:30
Nick Suzuki Slap Shot Wide Right
·
MTL 2·PHI 4
3rd·17:10
Oliver Bonk hit Cole Caufield
·
MTL 2·PHI 4
3rd·17:07
Hunter McDonald hit Nick Suzuki
·
MTL 2·PHI 4
3rd·16:35
Juraj Slafkovský shot blocked by Nick Seeler
·
MTL 2·PHI 4
3rd·16:12
Nick Suzuki faceoff won against Noah Cates
·
MTL 2·PHI 4
3rd·16:12
David Jiricek Roughing against Alexandre Texier
·
MTL 2·PHI 4
3rd·16:12
Alexandre Texier Roughing against David Jiricek
·
MTL 2·PHI 4
3rd·16:12
Puck Frozen - Goalie
MTL 2·PHI 4
3rd·16:10
Alexandre Texier Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
MTL 2·PHI 4
3rd·15:43
Takeaway by Lane Hutson
MTL 2·PHI 4
3rd·15:28
Cole Caufield Slap Shot saved by Samuel Ersson
·
MTL 2·PHI 4
3rd·15:20
Takeaway by Juraj Slafkovský
MTL 2·PHI 4
3rd·15:01
Carl Grundstrom hit Oliver Kapanen
·
MTL 2·PHI 4
3rd·14:48
Arber Xhekaj hit Carl Grundstrom
·
MTL 2·PHI 4

Betting line

MTL -1.5·O/U 6.5·MTL -305/PHI +245

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

hiladelphia Flyers held off Montreal Canadiens, 4–2.

PHI +1.5 cashed (MTL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE

Lane HutsonMTL · D
BURSTS2598
Arber XhekajMTL · D
SHOT MPH98.598
Cole CaufieldMTL · RW
iXG33.798
Denver BarkeyPHI · C
xGF%6397
Tyson FoersterPHI · RW
SHOT MPH92.796

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Cole Caufield · MTL21:360.9479.5%83.2%21:36 TOI · 0.94 iXG · 79.5% CF · 83.2% xGF
Matvei Michkov · PHI16:240.5435.3%37.2%16:24 TOI · 0.54 iXG · 35.3% CF · 37.2% xGF
Juraj Slafkovský · MTL22:420.4875.0%72.4%22:42 TOI · 0.48 iXG · 75.0% CF · 72.4% xGF
Porter Martone · PHI17:480.3964.0%72.9%17:48 TOI · 0.39 iXG · 64.0% CF · 72.9% xGF
Jake Evans · MTL11:120.3550.0%58.3%11:12 TOI · 0.35 iXG · 50.0% CF · 58.3% xGF
Alex Bump · PHI17:060.2556.0%57.9%17:06 TOI · 0.25 iXG · 56.0% CF · 57.9% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Samuel Ersson · PHI27–2.931+0.9627–2 · .931 SV% · +0.96 GSAx
Jakub Dobes · MTL21–4.840-1.8521–4 · .840 SV% · -1.85 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.8%

ensemble · MTL favored

Elo Static
52.1%
P(PHI win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
52.1%
P(PHI win)
16%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
52.1%
P(PHI win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+245

Close price

+245

Open no-vig

27.8%

Close no-vig

27.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MTL at PHI?: The model favors PHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.