Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NJ at BOS?

The model favors BOS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4BOS

42-37-3

BOS

45-27-10

NHLTue, Apr 14FinalSeriesBOS wins series 2-1VegasBOS -155

NJ · top performer

Paul Cotter

LW · #47

0Points

—

SOG

BOS · top performer

Mark Kastelic

C · #47

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. BjugstadC · #72	0	0	-1	0	3	0	0	13:02
J. BrattLW · #63	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	19:23
C. BrownRW · #16	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	18:10
P. CotterLW · #47	0	0	-2	4	1	1	0	12:31
E. DadonovLW · #33	0	0	-2	1	0	1	0	11:08
C. GlassC · #12	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	14:17
N. HischierC · #13	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	17:47
J. HughesC · #86	0	0	-2	2	0	0	0	21:07
M. McLaughlinC · #21	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	10:18
T. MeierRW · #28	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:45
D. MercerC · #91	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	16:25
M. TsyplakovRW · #42	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	11:50

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. DillonD · #5	0	0	-1	2	2	1	0	19:37
D. HamiltonD · #7	0	0	-3	3	0	1	0	18:59
J. KovacevicD · #8	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	19:43
S. NemecD · #17	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	21:39
J. SiegenthalerD · #71	0	0	-3	2	0	2	0	19:52
T. VilenD · #38	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	18:27

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. DawsG · #50	26	4	22	.846	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. ArvidssonLW · #71	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	13:17
M. EyssimontC · #81	0	0	1	3	2	1	0	13:37
M. GeekieC · #39	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	16:42
J. HagensC · #44	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	15:58
T. JeannotLW · #84	0	1	2	2	2	1	0	15:06
M. KastelicC · #47	2	0	2	4	2	0	0	13:47
M. KhusnutdinovC · #92	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	15:22
S. KuralyC · #52	0	2	2	2	0	1	0	17:53
E. LindholmC · #28	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	16:46
F. MintenC · #93	0	1	1	0	3	0	0	17:04
D. PastrnakRW · #88	0	1	1	3	0	2	0	17:08
P. ZachaC · #18	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	4:58

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AspirotD · #45	0	0	0	2	1	3	0	20:58
H. LindholmD · #27	0	1	4	1	0	1	0	19:47
M. LohreiD · #6	0	1	4	1	0	1	0	21:53
C. McAvoyD · #73	0	0	0	0	0	5	0	18:18
A. PeekeD · #26	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	20:16
N. ZadorovD · #91	0	0	0	3	0	1	2	19:10

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. SwaymanG · #1	21	0	21	1.000	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

BOS wins series 2-1

Dec 7

NJ1@

BOS4

Mar 16

BOS3@

NJ4

Apr 14

NJ0@

BOS4today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NJ+13043%

BOS-15561%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗

Line movement · 98 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BOS beat NJ 4-0. M. Kastelic led the way — 2 G · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
NJ	0	0	0	0
BOS	4	0	0	4

Period scoring

NJ won 0 · BOS won 1

BOS

Play-by-play · 298 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
NJ 0·BOS 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
NJ 0·BOS 4
3rd·19:54
Nick Bjugstad hit Mason Lohrei
·
NJ 0·BOS 4
3rd·19:50
Mark Kastelic Tip-In Above Crossbar
·
NJ 0·BOS 4
3rd·19:45
Tanner Jeannot Snap Shot Above Crossbar
·
NJ 0·BOS 4
3rd·19:44
Sean Kuraly shot blocked by Mark Kastelic
·
NJ 0·BOS 4
3rd·19:34
Tanner Jeannot Snap Shot saved by Nico Daws
·
NJ 0·BOS 4
3rd·19:09
Nick Bjugstad Backhand Wide Left
·
NJ 0·BOS 4
3rd·19:05
Johnathan Kovacevic Slap Shot Wide Right
·
NJ 0·BOS 4
3rd·19:04
Nick Bjugstad faceoff won against Sean Kuraly
·
NJ 0·BOS 4
3rd·19:04
Puck in Benches
NJ 0·BOS 4
3rd·19:02
Takeaway by Fraser Minten
NJ 0·BOS 4
3rd·18:52
Jack Hughes shot blocked by Cody Glass
·
NJ 0·BOS 4
3rd·18:31
Andrew Peeke hit Maksim Tsyplakov
·
NJ 0·BOS 4
3rd·18:19
Michael Eyssimont Snap Shot Wide Left
·
NJ 0·BOS 4
3rd·17:23
Mark Kastelic faceoff won against Marc McLaughlin
·
NJ 0·BOS 4
3rd·17:23
Goalie Stopped
NJ 0·BOS 4
3rd·17:20
Jack Hughes Wrist Shot saved by Jeremy Swayman
·
NJ 0·BOS 4
3rd·17:00
Brenden Dillon shot blocked by Andrew Peeke
·
NJ 0·BOS 4
3rd·16:58
Jack Hughes shot blocked by Nikita Zadorov
·
NJ 0·BOS 4
3rd·16:49
Jesper Bratt hit Andrew Peeke
·
NJ 0·BOS 4
3rd·16:25
Takeaway by Johnathan Kovacevic
NJ 0·BOS 4
3rd·16:01
Johnathan Kovacevic Slap Shot Wide Left
·
NJ 0·BOS 4
3rd·15:41
Nico Hischier faceoff won against Sean Kuraly
·
NJ 0·BOS 4
3rd·15:41
Puck in Netting
NJ 0·BOS 4
3rd·15:39
Hampus Lindholm shot blocked by Paul Cotter
· ·
NJ 0·BOS 4
3rd·15:05
Nick Bjugstad faceoff won against Sean Kuraly
·
NJ 0·BOS 4
3rd·15:05
Goalie Stopped
NJ 0·BOS 4
3rd·15:03
Jack Hughes Wrist Shot saved by Jeremy Swayman
·
NJ 0·BOS 4
3rd·14:56
Giveaway by Jack Hughes
NJ 0·BOS 4

Betting line

BOS -1.5·O/U 6.5·NJ +130/BOS -155

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

oston Bruins held off New Jersey Devils, 4–0.

BOS -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Mark Kastelic · BOS14:000.6746.9%47.8%14:00 TOI · 0.67 iXG · 46.9% CF · 47.8% xGF
Morgan Geekie · BOS16:480.4729.0%41.9%16:48 TOI · 0.47 iXG · 29.0% CF · 41.9% xGF
Paul Cotter · NJD12:300.4143.3%49.5%12:30 TOI · 0.41 iXG · 43.3% CF · 49.5% xGF
Jack Hughes · NJD21:300.3463.9%42.4%21:30 TOI · 0.34 iXG · 63.9% CF · 42.4% xGF
Michael Eyssimont · BOS13:420.3256.0%62.7%13:42 TOI · 0.32 iXG · 56.0% CF · 62.7% xGF
Cody Glass · NJD14:300.3150.0%39.2%14:30 TOI · 0.31 iXG · 50.0% CF · 39.2% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Jeremy Swayman · BOS21–01.000+1.9721–0 · 1.000 SV% · +1.97 GSAx
#848207622–4.846-0.7122–4 · .846 SV% · -0.71 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.1%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
60.1%
P(BOS win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
60.1%
P(BOS win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
60.1%
P(BOS win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-155

Close price

-155

Open no-vig

58.3%

Close no-vig

58.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NJ at BOS?: The model favors BOS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

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