Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TB at WPG?

The model favors WPG, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3WPG

38-18-4

WPG

25-26-10

NHLThu, Mar 5FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasTB -205

TB · top performer

Jake Guentzel

C · #59

1Points

—

SOG

WPG · top performer

Kyle Connor

LW · #81

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. BjorkstrandRW · #22	0	0	-1	3	3	0	0	15:25
A. CirelliC · #71	0	0	-2	1	2	1	2	17:13
C. GeekieC · #14	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:28
Z. GirgensonsC · #28	0	0	0	3	5	0	0	14:42
Y. GourdeC · #37	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	18:59
J. GuentzelC · #59	0	1	-2	5	1	1	0	21:45
B. HagelLW · #38	0	0	-3	1	0	1	2	18:17
P. HolmbergRW · #29	0	0	-1	2	0	2	0	14:18
N. KucherovRW · #86	0	0	-2	1	0	0	0	20:41
B. PointC · #21	1	0	-3	3	1	0	0	18:25
S. SabourinRW · #46	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	9:03

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. CarlileD · #67	0	0	-1	0	1	2	0	18:22
E. CernakD · #81	0	0	0	1	3	2	0	17:15
C. D'AstousD · #51	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	14:01
V. HedmanD · #77	0	0	-1	2	1	2	0	14:45
R. McDonaghD · #27	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	13:44
J.J. MoserD · #90	0	0	-2	3	0	0	0	16:39
D. RaddyshD · #43	0	1	-3	1	0	1	0	23:04

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. VasilevskiyG · #88	29	3	26	.897	58:54

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BarronC · #36	1	0	1	2	1	1	0	11:49
K. ConnorLW · #81	1	1	2	4	2	0	0	22:17
W. DuehrRW · #71	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	10:23
A. IafalloLW · #9	0	2	2	3	1	0	0	17:43
C. KoepkeLW · #45	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	9:54
A. LowryC · #17	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	15:01
G. NyquistRW · #14	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	13:39
T. PearsonLW · #70	0	2	2	1	1	0	0	13:30
C. PerfettiC · #91	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	15:08
M. ScheifeleC · #55	1	1	2	4	0	0	0	21:07
J. ToewsC · #19	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	14:50
G. VilardiC · #13	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	16:29

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. DeMeloD · #2	0	0	2	3	2	3	0	22:54
H. FleuryD · #24	0	0	2	2	5	2	0	23:58
V. HeinolaD · #34	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	13:51
I. PhillipsD · #3	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	12:10
E. SalomonssonD · #57	0	0	2	0	3	2	2	20:09
D. SambergD · #54	0	0	2	0	0	3	0	23:14

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. HellebuyckG · #37	27	1	26	.963	59:47

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

Away

Stat

WPG

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jan 30

WPG1@

TB4

Mar 6

TB1@

WPG4today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TB-20567%

WPG+17037%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 22 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

WPG beat TB 4-1. K. Connor led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
TB	0	0	1	1
WPG	0	2	2	4

Period scoring

TB won 0 · WPG won 2

WPG

Play-by-play · 340 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
TB 1·WPG 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
TB 1·WPG 4
3rd·19:52
Jonathan Toews faceoff won against Conor Geekie
·
TB 1·WPG 4
3rd·19:52
Goalie Stopped
TB 1·WPG 4
3rd·19:48
Oliver Bjorkstrand Wrist Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
TB 1·WPG 4
3rd·19:26
Haydn Fleury hit Oliver Bjorkstrand
·
TB 1·WPG 4
3rd·19:10
Morgan Barron faceoff won against Conor Geekie
·
TB 1·WPG 4
3rd·19:10
Puck in Penalty Benches
TB 1·WPG 4
3rd·19:03
Elias Salomonsson hit Yanni Gourde
·
TB 1·WPG 4
3rd·19:01
Giveaway by Haydn Fleury
TB 1·WPG 4
3rd·18:22
Isaak Phillips hit Zemgus Girgensons
·
TB 1·WPG 4
3rd·18:16
Charle-Edouard D'Astous shot blocked by Walker Duehr
·
TB 1·WPG 4
3rd·18:10
Zemgus Girgensons hit Isaak Phillips
·
TB 1·WPG 4
3rd·17:59
Zemgus Girgensons faceoff won against Jonathan Toews
·
TB 1·WPG 4
3rd·17:59
Kyle Connor Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (46), Alex Iafallo (14)
· ·
TB 1·WPG 4
3rd·17:54
Giveaway by Darren Raddysh
TB 1·WPG 3
3rd·17:49
Giveaway by Brayden Point
TB 1·WPG 3
3rd·17:31
Giveaway by Nikita Kucherov
TB 1·WPG 3
3rd·17:27
Tanner Pearson hit Brayden Point
·
TB 1·WPG 3
3rd·17:21
Anthony Cirelli Wrist Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
TB 1·WPG 3
3rd·17:20
Brayden Point Wrist Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
TB 1·WPG 3
3rd·17:14
Jake Guentzel Tip-In saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
TB 1·WPG 3
3rd·16:58
Brayden Point shot blocked by Morgan Barron
·
TB 1·WPG 3
3rd·16:29
Dylan DeMelo Slap Shot Wide Right
·
TB 1·WPG 3
3rd·16:23
Erik Cernak hit Gabriel Vilardi
·
TB 1·WPG 3
3rd·16:20
Cole Perfetti Wrist Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
TB 1·WPG 3
3rd·16:11
Scott Sabourin hit Elias Salomonsson
·
TB 1·WPG 3
3rd·15:56
Kyle Connor Tip-In Wide Right
·
TB 1·WPG 3
3rd·15:52
Giveaway by Yanni Gourde
TB 1·WPG 3
3rd·15:45
Haydn Fleury Wrist Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
TB 1·WPG 3

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 5.5·TB -205/WPG +170

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

innipeg Jets held off Tampa Bay Lightning, 4–1.

WPG +1.5 cashed (TB lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

42.1%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
42.1%
P(WPG win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
42.1%
P(WPG win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
42.1%
P(WPG win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+170

Close price

+170

Open no-vig

35.5%

Close no-vig

35.5%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TB at WPG?: The model favors WPG, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Tampa Bay LightningWinnipeg Jets

Elsewhere in the NHL