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FINAL+3WPG
TB

TB

38-18-4

14
WPG

WPG

25-26-10

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Mar 5FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasTB -205

Recap · NHL

innipeg Jets held off Tampa Bay Lightning, 4–1.

WPG +1.5 cashed (TB lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TB · top performer

TB
Jake Guentzel

Jake Guentzel

C · #59

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

WPG · top performer

WPG
Kyle Connor

Kyle Connor

LW · #81

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Tampa Bay Lightning at Winnipeg Jets · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
1
4
TB38-18-4WPG25-26-10
TB

TB

38-18-4

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
WPG

WPG

25-26-10

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

PIM

4

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jan 30WPGWPG1@TBTB4
Mar 6TBTB1@WPGWPG4today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TBTB-20567%
WPGWPG+17037%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

WPG beat TB 4-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
TB0011
WPG0224

Period scoring

TB won 0 · WPG won 2

0
0

1

0
2

2

1
2

3

TB
WPG

Play-by-play · 340 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    TB 1·WPG 4

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    TB 1·WPG 4

  3. 3rd·19:52

    Jonathan Toews faceoff won against Conor Geekie

    ·

    TB 1·WPG 4

  4. 3rd·19:52

    Goalie Stopped

    TB 1·WPG 4

  5. 3rd·19:48

    Oliver Bjorkstrand Wrist Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck

    · ·

    TB 1·WPG 4

  6. 3rd·19:26

    Haydn Fleury hit Oliver Bjorkstrand

    ·

    TB 1·WPG 4

  7. 3rd·19:10

    Morgan Barron faceoff won against Conor Geekie

    ·

    TB 1·WPG 4

  8. 3rd·19:10

    Puck in Penalty Benches

    TB 1·WPG 4

  9. 3rd·19:03

    Elias Salomonsson hit Yanni Gourde

    ·

    TB 1·WPG 4

  10. 3rd·19:01

    Giveaway by Haydn Fleury

    TB 1·WPG 4

  11. 3rd·18:22

    Isaak Phillips hit Zemgus Girgensons

    ·

    TB 1·WPG 4

  12. 3rd·18:16

    Charle-Edouard D'Astous shot blocked by Walker Duehr

    ·

    TB 1·WPG 4

  13. 3rd·18:10

    Zemgus Girgensons hit Isaak Phillips

    ·

    TB 1·WPG 4

  14. 3rd·17:59

    Zemgus Girgensons faceoff won against Jonathan Toews

    ·

    TB 1·WPG 4

  15. 3rd·17:59

    Kyle Connor Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (46), Alex Iafallo (14)

    · ·

    TB 1·WPG 4

  16. 3rd·17:54

    Giveaway by Darren Raddysh

    TB 1·WPG 3

  17. 3rd·17:49

    Giveaway by Brayden Point

    TB 1·WPG 3

  18. 3rd·17:31

    Giveaway by Nikita Kucherov

    TB 1·WPG 3

  19. 3rd·17:27

    Tanner Pearson hit Brayden Point

    ·

    TB 1·WPG 3

  20. 3rd·17:21

    Anthony Cirelli Wrist Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck

    · ·

    TB 1·WPG 3

  21. 3rd·17:20

    Brayden Point Wrist Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck

    · ·

    TB 1·WPG 3

  22. 3rd·17:14

    Jake Guentzel Tip-In saved by Connor Hellebuyck

    · ·

    TB 1·WPG 3

  23. 3rd·16:58

    Brayden Point shot blocked by Morgan Barron

    ·

    TB 1·WPG 3

  24. 3rd·16:29

    Dylan DeMelo Slap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    TB 1·WPG 3

  25. 3rd·16:23

    Erik Cernak hit Gabriel Vilardi

    ·

    TB 1·WPG 3

  26. 3rd·16:20

    Cole Perfetti Wrist Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy

    ·

    TB 1·WPG 3

  27. 3rd·16:11

    Scott Sabourin hit Elias Salomonsson

    ·

    TB 1·WPG 3

  28. 3rd·15:56

    Kyle Connor Tip-In Wide Right

    ·

    TB 1·WPG 3

  29. 3rd·15:52

    Giveaway by Yanni Gourde

    TB 1·WPG 3

  30. 3rd·15:45

    Haydn Fleury Wrist Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy

    ·

    TB 1·WPG 3

Team stats

TB

Away

Stat

WPG

Home

27

Shots

30

50.0

PCT

0.0

4

PIM

4

27

Faceoffs W

34

17

Blocks

15

17

Giveaways

17

1

Takeaways

8

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 5.5·TB -205/WPG +170

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 12 skaters with EDGE
  • Kyle ConnorWPG · LW
    DIST MI293.099+
  • Cole KoepkeWPG · LW
    SKATE MPH24.299
  • Morgan BarronWPG · C
    SHOT MPH95.697
  • Haydn FleuryWPG · D
    SKATE MPH23.195
  • Dylan DeMeloWPG · D
    DIST MI229.980

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · WPG favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(WPG win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(WPG win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(WPG win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+170

Close price

+170

Open no-vig

35.5%

Close no-vig

35.5%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

WPG vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

138

projections · 117 high confidence

Shots on goal

  • Kyle ConnorWPG
    3.7± 1.8high
  • Nikita KucherovTB
    3.5± 2.3high
  • Brandon HagelTB
    3.2± 1.4high

Goals

  • Brandon HagelTB
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Kyle ConnorWPG
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Jake GuentzelTB
    0.4± 0.5high

Points

  • Mark ScheifeleWPG
    1.4± 1.2high
  • Nikita KucherovTB
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Brandon HagelTB
    1.0± 0.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR