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FINAL+3UTA
UTA

UTA

33-25-4

30
PHI

PHI

28-22-11

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Mar 5FinalSeriesUTA wins series 2-0VegasUTAH -120

Recap · NHL

tah Mammoth went into Philadelphia Flyers and beat them, 3–0.

UTA -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

UTA · top performer

UTA
Dylan Guenther

Dylan Guenther

RW · #11

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

PHI · top performer

PHI
Denver Barkey

Denver Barkey

C · #52

0Points

0

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Utah Mammoth at Philadelphia Flyers · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
3
0
UTA33-25-4PHI28-22-11
UTA

UTA

33-25-4

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
PHI

PHI

28-22-11

0
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

PIM

4

Season series

UTA wins series 2-0

Jan 22PHIPHI4@UTAUTA5
Mar 6UTAUTA3@PHIPHI0today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

UTA -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

UTAUTA-12055%
PHIPHI+10050%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet UTA -1.5↗SpreadBet UTA -1.5↗

Line movement · 12 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

UTA beat PHI 3-0.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
UTA0213
PHI0000

Period scoring

UTA won 2 · PHI won 0

0
0

1

2
0

2

1
0

3

UTA
PHI

Play-by-play · 291 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    UTA 3·PHI 0

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    UTA 3·PHI 0

  3. 3rd·19:55

    Nikita Grebenkin hit Alexander Kerfoot

    ·

    UTA 3·PHI 0

  4. 3rd·19:50

    Noah Juulsen shot blocked by Sean Durzi

    ·

    UTA 3·PHI 0

  5. 3rd·19:41

    Nikita Grebenkin Backhand Wide Right

    ·

    UTA 3·PHI 0

  6. 3rd·19:25

    Giveaway by Noah Juulsen

    UTA 3·PHI 0

  7. 3rd·19:02

    Kevin Stenlund faceoff won against Carl Grundstrom

    ·

    UTA 3·PHI 0

  8. 3rd·19:02

    Puck in Crowd

    UTA 3·PHI 0

  9. 3rd·18:54

    Carl Grundstrom faceoff won against Alexander Kerfoot

    ·

    UTA 3·PHI 0

  10. 3rd·18:54

    Puck in Benches

    UTA 3·PHI 0

  11. 3rd·18:35

    JJ Peterka shot blocked by Nikita Grebenkin

    ·

    UTA 3·PHI 0

  12. 3rd·18:34

    Logan Cooley faceoff won against Noah Cates

    ·

    UTA 3·PHI 0

  13. 3rd·18:34

    Goalie Stopped

    UTA 3·PHI 0

  14. 3rd·18:32

    Kailer Yamamoto Wrist Shot saved by Dan Vladar

    ·

    UTA 3·PHI 0

  15. 3rd·18:12

    Noah Cates faceoff won against Barrett Hayton

    ·

    UTA 3·PHI 0

  16. 3rd·18:12

    Michael Carcone Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Stenlund (9), John Marino (25)

    · ·

    UTA 3·PHI 0

  17. 3rd·18:07

    Kevin Stenlund Wrist Shot Wide Right

    UTA 2·PHI 0

  18. 3rd·17:36

    John Marino Wrist Shot Wide Left

    UTA 2·PHI 0

  19. 3rd·17:35

    Kevin Stenlund faceoff won against Sean Couturier

    ·

    UTA 2·PHI 0

  20. 3rd·17:35

    Icing

    UTA 2·PHI 0

  21. 3rd·17:31

    Alexander Kerfoot Wrist Shot Wide Left

    UTA 2·PHI 0

  22. 3rd·17:17

    Clayton Keller shot blocked by Rasmus Ristolainen

    ·

    UTA 2·PHI 0

  23. 3rd·16:31

    Giveaway by JJ Peterka

    UTA 2·PHI 0

  24. 3rd·15:33

    Barrett Hayton faceoff won against Christian Dvorak

    ·

    UTA 2·PHI 0

  25. 3rd·15:33

    Puck in Netting

    UTA 2·PHI 0

  26. 3rd·15:01

    Owen Tippett hit Alexander Kerfoot

    ·

    UTA 2·PHI 0

  27. 3rd·14:51

    Kevin Stenlund hit Sean Couturier

    ·

    UTA 2·PHI 0

  28. 3rd·14:46

    Michael Carcone Snap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    UTA 2·PHI 0

  29. 3rd·14:14

    Rasmus Ristolainen hit Nick Schmaltz

    ·

    UTA 2·PHI 0

  30. 3rd·14:10

    Dylan Guenther shot blocked by Travis Sanheim

    ·

    UTA 2·PHI 0

Team stats

UTA

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

23

Shots

16

50.0

PCT

0.0

6

PIM

4

24

Faceoffs W

24

18

Blocks

17

19

Giveaways

12

4

Takeaways

4

Betting line

UTA -1.5·O/U 5.5·UTA -120/PHI +100

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 skaters with EDGE
  • Jamie DrysdalePHI · D
    SKATE MPH23.098
  • Travis SanheimPHI · D
    SKATE MPH22.795
  • Cam YorkPHI · D
    SKATE MPH22.693
  • Christian DvorakPHI · C
    BURSTS3492
  • Denver BarkeyPHI · C
    BURSTS2178

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(PHI win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(PHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+100

Close price

+100

Open no-vig

47.8%

Close no-vig

47.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR