Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in UTA at PHI?

The model favors PHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3UTA

UTA

33-25-4

PHI

28-22-11

NHLThu, Mar 5FinalSeriesUTA wins series 2-0VegasUTAH -120

UTA · top performer

Clayton Keller

RW · #9

1Points

—

SOG

PHI · top performer

Denver Barkey

C · #52

0Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. CarconeLW · #53	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	12:07
L. CooleyC · #92	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:55
L. CrouseLW · #67	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	14:25
D. GuentherRW · #11	0	2	1	0	2	0	0	16:30
B. HaytonC · #27	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	13:25
C. KellerRW · #9	1	0	1	4	0	1	2	16:16
A. KerfootC · #15	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	14:21
J. McBainC · #22	0	0	0	2	5	0	0	14:08
J. PeterkaRW · #77	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	13:47
N. SchmaltzC · #8	1	1	1	2	0	2	0	19:34
K. StenlundC · #82	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	13:17
K. YamamotoRW · #56	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	13:04

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. ColeD · #28	0	0	0	0	5	4	0	22:06
N. DeSimoneD · #57	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	17:45
S. DurziD · #50	0	1	0	0	1	1	2	21:58
J. MarinoD · #6	0	1	2	0	0	1	2	22:40
N. SchmidtD · #88	0	0	2	2	0	3	0	22:12
D. SimashevD · #26	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:30

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. VanecekG · #41	16	0	16	1.000	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. BarkeyC · #52	0	0	0	3	2	3	0	12:06
B. BrinkRW · #10	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	19:19
N. CatesLW · #27	0	0	-1	1	4	0	2	18:18
S. CouturierC · #14	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	14:54
N. DeslauriersLW · #44	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	5:21
C. DvorakC · #22	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	18:28
N. GrebenkinRW · #29	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	12:27
C. GrundstromRW · #91	0	0	0	2	3	2	0	12:09
G. HathawayRW · #19	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	9:57
M. MichkovRW · #39	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	16:43
O. TippettRW · #74	0	0	-2	2	2	1	0	21:03
T. ZegrasC · #46	0	0	-1	3	0	1	2	22:16

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. AndraeD · #36	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	13:55
J. DrysdaleD · #9	0	0	-1	1	0	2	0	22:48
N. JuulsenD · #47	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	12:41
R. RistolainenD · #55	0	0	-1	0	1	2	0	22:05
T. SanheimD · #6	0	0	-1	0	2	2	0	24:24
C. YorkD · #8	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	21:10

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. VladarG · #80	22	2	20	.909	57:48

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

UTA

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

UTA wins series 2-0

Jan 22

PHI4@

UTA5

Mar 6

UTA3@

PHI0today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

UTA -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

UTA-12055%

PHI+10050%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet UTA -1.5↗SpreadBet UTA -1.5↗

Line movement · 24 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

UTA beat PHI 3-0. C. Keller led the way — 1 G · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
UTA	0	2	1	3
PHI	0	0	0	0

Period scoring

UTA won 2 · PHI won 0

UTA

PHI

Play-by-play · 291 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
UTA 3·PHI 0
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
UTA 3·PHI 0
3rd·19:55
Nikita Grebenkin hit Alexander Kerfoot
·
UTA 3·PHI 0
3rd·19:50
Noah Juulsen shot blocked by Sean Durzi
·
UTA 3·PHI 0
3rd·19:41
Nikita Grebenkin Backhand Wide Right
·
UTA 3·PHI 0
3rd·19:25
Giveaway by Noah Juulsen
UTA 3·PHI 0
3rd·19:02
Kevin Stenlund faceoff won against Carl Grundstrom
·
UTA 3·PHI 0
3rd·19:02
Puck in Crowd
UTA 3·PHI 0
3rd·18:54
Carl Grundstrom faceoff won against Alexander Kerfoot
·
UTA 3·PHI 0
3rd·18:54
Puck in Benches
UTA 3·PHI 0
3rd·18:35
JJ Peterka shot blocked by Nikita Grebenkin
·
UTA 3·PHI 0
3rd·18:34
Logan Cooley faceoff won against Noah Cates
·
UTA 3·PHI 0
3rd·18:34
Goalie Stopped
UTA 3·PHI 0
3rd·18:32
Kailer Yamamoto Wrist Shot saved by Dan Vladar
·
UTA 3·PHI 0
3rd·18:12
Noah Cates faceoff won against Barrett Hayton
·
UTA 3·PHI 0
3rd·18:12
Michael Carcone Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Stenlund (9), John Marino (25)
· ·
UTA 3·PHI 0
3rd·18:07
Kevin Stenlund Wrist Shot Wide Right
UTA 2·PHI 0
3rd·17:36
John Marino Wrist Shot Wide Left
UTA 2·PHI 0
3rd·17:35
Kevin Stenlund faceoff won against Sean Couturier
·
UTA 2·PHI 0
3rd·17:35
Icing
UTA 2·PHI 0
3rd·17:31
Alexander Kerfoot Wrist Shot Wide Left
UTA 2·PHI 0
3rd·17:17
Clayton Keller shot blocked by Rasmus Ristolainen
·
UTA 2·PHI 0
3rd·16:31
Giveaway by JJ Peterka
UTA 2·PHI 0
3rd·15:33
Barrett Hayton faceoff won against Christian Dvorak
·
UTA 2·PHI 0
3rd·15:33
Puck in Netting
UTA 2·PHI 0
3rd·15:01
Owen Tippett hit Alexander Kerfoot
·
UTA 2·PHI 0
3rd·14:51
Kevin Stenlund hit Sean Couturier
·
UTA 2·PHI 0
3rd·14:46
Michael Carcone Snap Shot Wide Left
·
UTA 2·PHI 0
3rd·14:14
Rasmus Ristolainen hit Nick Schmaltz
·
UTA 2·PHI 0
3rd·14:10
Dylan Guenther shot blocked by Travis Sanheim
·
UTA 2·PHI 0

Betting line

UTA -1.5·O/U 5.5·UTA -120/PHI +100

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

tah Mammoth went into Philadelphia Flyers and beat them, 3–0.

UTA -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.9%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
51.9%
P(PHI win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
51.9%
P(PHI win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
51.9%
P(PHI win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+100

Close price

+100

Open no-vig

47.8%

Close no-vig

47.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in UTA at PHI?: The model favors PHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Utah MammothPhiladelphia Flyers

Elsewhere in the NHL