Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in FLA at CBJ?

The model favors CBJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2CBJ

FLA

30-29-3

CBJ

32-21-8

NHLThu, Mar 5FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasCBJ -115

FLA · top performer

Sam Bennett

C · #9

1Points

—

SOG

CBJ · top performer

Ivan Provorov

D · #9

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BennettC · #9	1	0	0	4	0	0	0	18:05
J. BoqvistC · #70	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	10:34
A. LundellC · #15	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	18:32
E. LuostarinenC · #27	0	0	-2	0	1	0	0	14:42
B. MarchandLW · #63	0	0	-3	1	0	0	0	12:39
T. NosekLW · #92	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	12:44
S. ReinhartC · #13	0	1	0	5	0	0	0	20:34
E. RodriguesC · #17	0	0	0	2	1	0	2	15:57
M. SamoskevichRW · #11	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	13:59
M. TkachukLW · #19	0	1	-1	3	0	0	0	17:50
C. VerhaegheC · #23	0	0	-2	2	0	0	0	15:12
S. VilmanisLW · #95	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	10:34

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
U. BalinskisD · #26	0	0	-2	1	5	2	2	17:35
A. EkbladD · #5	0	2	0	0	0	2	0	22:19
G. ForslingD · #42	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	20:47
D. KulikovD · #7	0	0	-1	2	2	0	0	20:05
N. MikkolaD · #77	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	19:24
D. SebrangoD · #6	0	0	-1	0	1	1	2	14:04

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. TarasovG · #40	27	3	24	.889	59:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CoyleC · #3	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	19:46
A. FantilliC · #19	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	19:21
B. JennerC · #38	1	0	1	1	2	0	0	14:58
K. JohnsonC · #91	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	11:15
I. LundestromC · #21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:06
K. MarchenkoRW · #86	0	1	0	1	0	0	2	15:54
M. MarchmentLW · #17	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:26
S. MonahanC · #23	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	18:25
M. OlivierRW · #24	2	0	2	3	3	1	0	15:44
C. SillingerC · #4	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	16:18
D. VoronkovLW · #10	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	10:58
M. WoodLW · #11	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	10:16

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChristiansenD · #2	0	0	1	0	0	4	2	12:02
E. GudbransonD · #44	0	0	0	3	3	3	2	22:08
D. MateychukD · #5	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	22:39
I. ProvorovD · #9	1	2	0	4	1	4	0	26:22
D. SeversonD · #78	0	0	1	0	0	4	2	22:12
E. ZamulaD · #6	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	11:28

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. GreavesG · #73	28	2	26	.929	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

FLA

Away

Stat

CBJ

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

33.3

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 6

CBJ6@

FLA7

Mar 6

FLA2@

CBJ4today

Mar 12

CBJ1@

FLA2

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CBJ -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

FLA-10551%

CBJ-11553%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CBJ -1.5↗SpreadBet CBJ -1.5↗

Line movement · 26 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CBJ beat FLA 4-2. I. Provorov led the way — 1 G · 2 A · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
FLA	0	0	2	2
CBJ	1	1	2	4

Period scoring

FLA won 0 · CBJ won 2

FLA

CBJ

Play-by-play · 296 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
FLA 2·CBJ 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
FLA 2·CBJ 4
3rd·19:46
Carter Verhaeghe Snap Shot saved by Jet Greaves
·
FLA 2·CBJ 4
3rd·19:12
Sandis Vilmanis hit Boone Jenner
·
FLA 2·CBJ 4
3rd·19:00
Tomas Nosek hit Denton Mateychuk
·
FLA 2·CBJ 4
3rd·18:49
Sandis Vilmanis hit Damon Severson
·
FLA 2·CBJ 4
3rd·18:18
Tomas Nosek faceoff won against Sean Monahan
·
FLA 2·CBJ 4
3rd·18:18
Mathieu Olivier Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (31), Ivan Provorov (17)
· ·
FLA 2·CBJ 4
3rd·18:02
Matthew Tkachuk Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
FLA 2·CBJ 3
3rd·17:58
Brad Marchand Tip-In Wide Left
·
FLA 2·CBJ 3
3rd·17:35
Takeaway by Isac Lundeström
FLA 2·CBJ 3
3rd·17:28
Giveaway by Anton Lundell
FLA 2·CBJ 3
3rd·17:05
Adam Fantilli faceoff won against Anton Lundell
·
FLA 2·CBJ 3
3rd·17:05
Challenge Hm - goal interference - no goal
FLA 2·CBJ 3
3rd·16:59
Mathieu Olivier hit Eetu Luostarinen
·
FLA 2·CBJ 3
3rd·16:41
Charlie Coyle faceoff won against Eetu Luostarinen
·
FLA 2·CBJ 3
3rd·16:41
Puck in Netting
FLA 2·CBJ 3
3rd·16:40
Matthew Tkachuk Snap Shot Failed Bank Attempt
·
FLA 2·CBJ 3
3rd·16:38
Sam Bennett Snap Shot saved by Jet Greaves
·
FLA 2·CBJ 3
3rd·16:35
Sam Bennett faceoff won against Boone Jenner
·
FLA 2·CBJ 3
3rd·16:35
Icing
FLA 2·CBJ 3
3rd·16:11
Cole Sillinger Snap Shot Above Crossbar
·
FLA 2·CBJ 3
3rd·15:42
Sam Reinhart Tip-In Wide Right
·
FLA 2·CBJ 3
3rd·15:28
Erik Gudbranson hit Evan Rodrigues
·
FLA 2·CBJ 3
3rd·15:02
Anton Lundell faceoff won against Sean Monahan
·
FLA 2·CBJ 3
3rd·15:02
Goalie Stopped
FLA 2·CBJ 3
3rd·15:00
Mackie Samoskevich Snap Shot Wide Right
·
FLA 2·CBJ 3
3rd·14:44
Eetu Luostarinen faceoff won against Boone Jenner
·
FLA 2·CBJ 3
3rd·14:44
Sam Bennett Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Aaron Ekblad (22), Matthew Tkachuk (9)
· ·
FLA 2·CBJ 3
3rd·14:15
Sam Reinhart Wrist Shot Above Crossbar
·
FLA 1·CBJ 3

Betting line

CBJ -1.5·O/U 6.5·FLA -105/CBJ -115

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

olumbus Blue Jackets held off Florida Panthers, 4–2.

CBJ -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.9%

ensemble · CBJ favored

Elo Static
59.9%
P(CBJ win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
59.9%
P(CBJ win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
59.9%
P(CBJ win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-115

Close price

-115

Open no-vig

51.1%

Close no-vig

51.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in FLA at CBJ?: The model favors CBJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Florida PanthersColumbus Blue Jackets

Elsewhere in the NHL