Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYI at LA?

The model favors NYI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2LA

NYI

35-23-5

25-22-14

NHLThu, Mar 5FinalSeriesLA leads series 1-0VegasLA -120

NYI · top performer

Emil Heineman

LW · #51

1Points

—

SOG

LA · top performer

Adrian Kempe

RW · #9

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BarzalC · #13	0	1	-1	3	0	3	0	23:16
C. CizikasC · #53	0	0	-1	2	2	1	0	11:37
J. DrouinLW · #29	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	14:56
M. GatcombC · #16	0	0	-1	0	5	0	0	9:32
E. HeinemanLW · #51	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	15:35
S. HolmstromRW · #10	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	21:31
B. HorvatC · #14	1	0	0	4	0	2	0	24:00
A. LeeLW · #27	0	0	1	6	2	0	0	18:58
K. MacLeanC · #32	0	0	-1	0	5	0	0	6:30
J. PageauC · #44	0	2	1	1	1	0	0	15:57
O. PalatLW · #81	0	0	-2	2	0	1	2	15:15
C. RitchieC · #64	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	16:49

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. DeAngeloD · #77	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	24:01
S. MayfieldD · #24	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	9:34
A. PelechD · #3	1	0	0	3	0	3	0	19:10
R. PulockD · #6	0	0	1	2	0	3	0	19:29
M. SchaeferD · #48	0	1	-1	2	1	1	0	27:47
C. SoucyD · #4	0	0	-1	1	0	1	2	9:31

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. SorokinG · #30	35	5	30	.857	51:25

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. ConnorsC · #34	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	7:05
S. HeleniusC · #79	1	0	0	1	6	1	0	7:51
A. KempeRW · #9	1	1	2	3	1	0	0	23:39
A. KopitarC · #11	0	1	1	1	0	3	0	25:10
A. LaferriereRW · #14	1	0	-1	5	2	2	0	21:09
J. MalottLW · #39	0	1	0	1	3	1	0	8:26
T. MooreLW · #12	0	0	-2	5	1	1	0	19:56
A. PanarinLW · #72	1	1	3	2	0	0	0	23:36
C. PerryRW · #10	0	0	-1	4	0	0	0	15:51
A. TurcotteC · #15	0	0	1	1	3	0	2	10:27
T. WardRW · #52	0	1	1	3	3	0	0	8:08
J. WrightRW · #53	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	7:29

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AndersonD · #44	1	1	2	2	1	3	0	24:01
C. CeciD · #5	0	0	-2	0	0	4	0	17:14
B. ClarkeD · #92	0	2	2	2	1	1	0	17:17
D. DoughtyD · #8	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	25:48
B. DumoulinD · #2	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	14:02
J. EdmundsonD · #6	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	16:51

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. KuemperG · #35	35	3	32	.914	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

NYI

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

33.3

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

LA leads series 1-0

Mar 6

NYI3@

LA5today

Mar 13

LA3@

NYI2

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LA -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NYI+10050%

LA-12055%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LA -1.5↗SpreadBet LA -1.5↗

Line movement · 19 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

LA beat NYI 5-3. A. Kempe led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
NYI	0	1	2	3
LA	1	2	2	5

Period scoring

NYI won 0 · LA won 2

NYI

Play-by-play · 349 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
NYI 3·LA 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
NYI 3·LA 5
3rd·19:50
Trevor Moore shot blocked by Matthew Schaefer
·
NYI 3·LA 5
3rd·19:45
Alex Laferriere faceoff won against Bo Horvat
·
NYI 3·LA 5
3rd·19:45
Goalie Stopped
NYI 3·LA 5
3rd·19:41
Anders Lee Backhand saved by Darcy Kuemper
·
NYI 3·LA 5
3rd·19:37
Bo Horvat shot blocked by Anze Kopitar
·
NYI 3·LA 5
3rd·19:24
Bo Horvat faceoff won against Anze Kopitar
·
NYI 3·LA 5
3rd·19:24
Icing
NYI 3·LA 5
3rd·19:20
Artemi Panarin Wrist Shot Wide Right
NYI 3·LA 5
3rd·19:19
Giveaway by Jonathan Drouin
NYI 3·LA 5
3rd·18:57
Anze Kopitar faceoff won against Jean-Gabriel Pageau
·
NYI 3·LA 5
3rd·18:57
Icing
NYI 3·LA 5
3rd·18:53
Adrian Kempe Snap Shot Wide Left
NYI 3·LA 5
3rd·18:26
Takeaway by Simon Holmstrom
NYI 3·LA 5
3rd·18:24
Giveaway by Mathew Barzal
NYI 3·LA 5
3rd·18:01
Bo Horvat faceoff won against Anze Kopitar
·
NYI 3·LA 5
3rd·18:01
Emil Heineman Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Matthew Schaefer (25), Mathew Barzal (39)
· ·
NYI 3·LA 5
3rd·17:48
Anders Lee Wrist Shot saved by Darcy Kuemper
·
NYI 2·LA 5
3rd·17:36
Trevor Moore Wrist Shot High and Wide Left
NYI 2·LA 5
3rd·17:17
Giveaway by Jonathan Drouin
NYI 2·LA 5
3rd·16:49
Anze Kopitar faceoff won against Jean-Gabriel Pageau
·
NYI 2·LA 5
3rd·16:49
Icing
NYI 2·LA 5
3rd·16:42
Emil Heineman Snap Shot saved by Darcy Kuemper
·
NYI 2·LA 5
3rd·16:37
Jean-Gabriel Pageau faceoff won against Anze Kopitar
·
NYI 2·LA 5
3rd·16:37
Icing
NYI 2·LA 5
3rd·16:32
Drew Doughty Wrist Shot Wide Right
NYI 2·LA 5
3rd·16:31
Giveaway by Mathew Barzal
NYI 2·LA 5
3rd·15:47
Drew Doughty shot blocked by Bo Horvat
·
NYI 2·LA 5
3rd·15:41
Giveaway by Artemi Panarin
NYI 2·LA 5

Betting line

LA -1.5·O/U 5.5·NYI +100/LA -120

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

os Angeles Kings held off New York Islanders, 5–3.

LA -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

47.9%

ensemble · NYI favored

Elo Static
47.9%
P(LA win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
47.9%
P(LA win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
47.9%
P(LA win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+100

Close price

+100

Open no-vig

47.8%

Close no-vig

47.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYI at LA?: The model favors NYI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

New York IslandersLos Angeles Kings

Elsewhere in the NHL