Mar 10, 26sim 99
124
19(H)3
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+2LA
NYI
35-23-5
35
LA
25-22-14
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · NHL
os Angeles Kings held off New York Islanders, 5–3.
LA -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 2.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NYI · top performer
Jean-Gabriel Pageau
C · #44
2Points
0
G
2
A
—
SOG
LA · top performer
Adrian Kempe
RW · #9
2Points
1
G
1
A
—
SOG
NHL · New York Islanders at Los Angeles Kings · final
NHL · Box scoreEDGE
Final
NYI35-23-5
35
LA25-22-14
NYI35-23-5LA25-22-14
NYI
35-23-5
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
LA
25-22-14
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
6
PIM
6
Season series
LA leads series 1-0
Mar 6NYI3@LA5today
NYI3@LA5todayMar 13LA3@NYI2
LA3@NYI2Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
LA -1.5
Total
5.5
Defensive · -3.0 vs avg
Moneyline
NYI+10050%LA-12055%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 8 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
5.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
LA beat NYI 5-3.
Last play
Game End
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| LA | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
Period scoring
NYI won 0 · LA won 2
0
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
3
NYI
LA
Play-by-play · 349 plays
period
event
player
- 3rd·20:00
Game End
NYI 3·LA 5
- 3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
NYI 3·LA 5
- 3rd·19:50
Trevor Moore shot blocked by Matthew Schaefer
·
NYI 3·LA 5
- 3rd·19:45
Alex Laferriere faceoff won against Bo Horvat
·
NYI 3·LA 5
- 3rd·19:45
Goalie Stopped
NYI 3·LA 5
- 3rd·19:41
Anders Lee Backhand saved by Darcy Kuemper
·
NYI 3·LA 5
- 3rd·19:37
Bo Horvat shot blocked by Anze Kopitar
·
NYI 3·LA 5
- 3rd·19:24
Bo Horvat faceoff won against Anze Kopitar
·
NYI 3·LA 5
- 3rd·19:24
Icing
NYI 3·LA 5
- 3rd·19:20
Artemi Panarin Wrist Shot Wide Right
NYI 3·LA 5
- 3rd·19:19
Giveaway by Jonathan Drouin
NYI 3·LA 5
- 3rd·18:57
Anze Kopitar faceoff won against Jean-Gabriel Pageau
·
NYI 3·LA 5
- 3rd·18:57
Icing
NYI 3·LA 5
- 3rd·18:53
Adrian Kempe Snap Shot Wide Left
NYI 3·LA 5
- 3rd·18:26
Takeaway by Simon Holmstrom
NYI 3·LA 5
- 3rd·18:24
Giveaway by Mathew Barzal
NYI 3·LA 5
- 3rd·18:01
Bo Horvat faceoff won against Anze Kopitar
·
NYI 3·LA 5
- 3rd·18:01
Emil Heineman Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Matthew Schaefer (25), Mathew Barzal (39)
· ·
NYI 3·LA 5
- 3rd·17:48
Anders Lee Wrist Shot saved by Darcy Kuemper
·
NYI 2·LA 5
- 3rd·17:36
Trevor Moore Wrist Shot High and Wide Left
NYI 2·LA 5
- 3rd·17:17
Giveaway by Jonathan Drouin
NYI 2·LA 5
- 3rd·16:49
Anze Kopitar faceoff won against Jean-Gabriel Pageau
·
NYI 2·LA 5
- 3rd·16:49
Icing
NYI 2·LA 5
- 3rd·16:42
Emil Heineman Snap Shot saved by Darcy Kuemper
·
NYI 2·LA 5
- 3rd·16:37
Jean-Gabriel Pageau faceoff won against Anze Kopitar
·
NYI 2·LA 5
- 3rd·16:37
Icing
NYI 2·LA 5
- 3rd·16:32
Drew Doughty Wrist Shot Wide Right
NYI 2·LA 5
- 3rd·16:31
Giveaway by Mathew Barzal
NYI 2·LA 5
- 3rd·15:47
Drew Doughty shot blocked by Bo Horvat
·
NYI 2·LA 5
- 3rd·15:41
Giveaway by Artemi Panarin
NYI 2·LA 5
Team stats
NYI
Away
Stat
LA
Home
35
Shots
35
0.0
PCT
33.3
6
PIM
6
34
Faceoffs W
27
17
Blocks
21
14
Giveaways
10
4
Takeaways
6
Betting line
LA -1.5·O/U 5.5·NYI +100/LA -120
NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 14 skaters with EDGE
Matthew SchaeferNYI · DBURSTS26999+
Ryan PulockNYI · DSHOT MPH103.099+
Mathew BarzalNYI · CDIST MI274.399
Emil HeinemanNYI · LWSHOT MPH97.399
Bo HorvatNYI · CSHOT MPH93.494
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.1%
ensemble · LA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
+100
Close price
+100
Open no-vig
47.8%
Close no-vig
47.8%
Line barely moved · Graded: miss
Player projections
LA vs NYI.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
135
projections · 126 high confidence
Shots on goal
- Alex LaferriereLA3.0± 1.6high
- Quinton ByfieldLA3.0± 2.2high
- Bo HorvatNYI2.9± 0.9high
Goals
- Adrian KempeLA0.5± 0.7high
- Quinton ByfieldLA0.4± 0.7high
- Andrei KuzmenkoLA0.3± 0.7high
Points
- Alex LaferriereLA0.8± 0.8high
- Artemi PanarinLA0.8± 0.7high
- Mathew BarzalNYI0.8± 0.7high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands