Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in OTT at CGY?

The model favors CGY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3OTT

OTT

30-22-9

CGY

24-30-7

NHLThu, Mar 5FinalSeriesOTT wins series 2-0VegasOTT -180

OTT · top performer

Shane Pinto

C · #12

1Points

—

SOG

CGY · top performer

Martin Pospisil

C · #76

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AmadioRW · #22	0	1	2	3	2	2	2	17:25
D. BathersonRW · #19	0	1	0	2	1	0	0	18:36
N. CousinsC · #21	0	0	0	0	8	0	0	12:25
D. CozensC · #24	1	0	0	2	1	0	0	16:30
L. EllerC · #89	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	10:19
C. GirouxRW · #28	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	16:38
R. GreigC · #71	0	1	2	1	1	1	0	17:45
K. MacDermidLW · #23	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	2:02
S. PintoC · #12	1	0	1	4	2	1	0	17:50
T. StutzleC · #18	1	0	0	4	0	0	0	22:38
B. TkachukLW · #7	0	1	0	3	0	2	0	17:29
F. ZetterlundLW · #20	0	1	0	3	0	0	0	9:03

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. ChabotD · #72	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	24:14
N. JensenD · #3	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	16:54
T. KlevenD · #43	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	15:27
J. SandersonD · #85	0	0	1	4	0	4	0	23:51
J. SpenceD · #10	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	16:59
A. ZubD · #2	0	1	1	1	0	2	2	18:35

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. UllmarkG · #35	20	1	19	.950	59:20

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BacklundC · #11	0	0	-2	1	1	1	0	21:21
B. ColemanLW · #20	0	0	-2	3	2	0	2	16:53
M. CoronatoRW · #27	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	19:49
J. FarabeeLW · #86	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	15:54
M. FrostC · #16	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	13:31
M. GridinRW · #92	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	13:47
N. KadriC · #91	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	17:13
A. KlapkaRW · #43	0	0	-1	1	4	1	2	8:21
R. LombergLW · #70	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	8:40
M. PospisilC · #76	1	0	0	1	2	2	0	11:29
Y. SharangovichC · #17	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	16:15
C. ZaryC · #47	0	0	-2	0	1	0	0	16:34

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. BahlD · #7	0	0	-2	1	0	0	0	24:59
J. HanleyD · #44	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	16:22
Y. KuznetsovD · #37	0	0	-1	2	3	2	0	16:58
B. PachalD · #94	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	14:12
Z. ParekhD · #19	0	0	-2	1	0	2	2	17:36
Z. WhitecloudD · #28	0	0	0	1	2	4	2	24:45

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. CooleyG · #1	35	2	33	.943	58:40

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

OTT

Away

Stat

CGY

Home

Shots

25.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

OTT wins series 2-0

Oct 30

CGY3@

OTT4

Mar 6

OTT4@

CGY1today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OTT -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

OTT-18064%

CGY+15040%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗

Line movement · 23 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

OTT beat CGY 4-1. S. Pinto led the way — 1 G · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
OTT	0	1	3	4
CGY	1	0	0	1

Period scoring

OTT won 2 · CGY won 1

OTT

CGY

Play-by-play · 308 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
OTT 4·CGY 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
OTT 4·CGY 1
3rd·19:46
Lars Eller faceoff won against Matvei Gridin
·
OTT 4·CGY 1
3rd·19:46
Shane Pinto Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Amadio (15), Artem Zub (16)
· ·
OTT 4·CGY 1
3rd·19:37
Ridly Greig faceoff won against Mikael Backlund
·
OTT 3·CGY 1
3rd·19:37
Goalie Stopped
OTT 3·CGY 1
3rd·19:35
Zach Whitecloud Wrist Shot saved by Linus Ullmark
·
OTT 3·CGY 1
3rd·19:10
Matvei Gridin Snap Shot Wide Right
·
OTT 3·CGY 1
3rd·18:49
Matt Coronato shot blocked by Shane Pinto
·
OTT 3·CGY 1
3rd·18:38
Ridly Greig hit Zayne Parekh
·
OTT 3·CGY 1
3rd·18:35
Morgan Frost Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
OTT 3·CGY 1
3rd·18:21
Thomas Chabot Wrist Shot saved by Devin Cooley
·
OTT 3·CGY 1
3rd·18:18
Shane Pinto faceoff won against Morgan Frost
·
OTT 3·CGY 1
3rd·18:18
Goalie Stopped
OTT 3·CGY 1
3rd·18:16
Matt Coronato Wrist Shot saved by Linus Ullmark
·
OTT 3·CGY 1
3rd·17:59
Morgan Frost faceoff won against Ridly Greig
·
OTT 3·CGY 1
3rd·17:59
Tim Stützle Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: none
OTT 3·CGY 1
3rd·16:45
Tim Stützle Wrist Shot saved by Devin Cooley
·
OTT 2·CGY 1
3rd·16:23
Shane Pinto faceoff won against Nazem Kadri
·
OTT 2·CGY 1
3rd·16:23
Artem Zub Interference against Connor Zary
·
OTT 2·CGY 1
3rd·16:20
Kevin Bahl shot blocked by Ridly Greig
·
OTT 2·CGY 1
3rd·16:17
Nazem Kadri faceoff won against Shane Pinto
·
OTT 2·CGY 1
3rd·16:17
Icing
OTT 2·CGY 1
3rd·16:10
Shane Pinto faceoff won against Nazem Kadri
·
OTT 2·CGY 1
3rd·16:10
Goalie Stopped
OTT 2·CGY 1
3rd·16:07
Nazem Kadri Wrist Shot saved by Linus Ullmark
·
OTT 2·CGY 1
3rd·15:44
Giveaway by Thomas Chabot
OTT 2·CGY 1
3rd·15:13
Tyler Kleven shot blocked by Fabian Zetterlund
·
OTT 2·CGY 1
3rd·15:10
Lars Eller faceoff won against Morgan Frost
·
OTT 2·CGY 1
3rd·15:10
Puck in Netting
OTT 2·CGY 1

Betting line

OTT -1.5·O/U 5.5·OTT -180/CGY +150

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ttawa Senators went into Calgary Flames and beat them, 4–1.

OTT -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

32.0%

ensemble · OTT favored

Elo Static
51.3%
P(CGY win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
51.3%
P(CGY win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
51.3%
P(CGY win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+150

Close price

+150

Open no-vig

38.4%

Close no-vig

38.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in OTT at CGY?: The model favors CGY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Ottawa SenatorsCalgary Flames

Elsewhere in the NHL