Live · 9
Free during beta —to track favorites + alerts
FINAL+3OTT
OTT

OTT

30-22-9

41
CGY

CGY

24-30-7

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Mar 5FinalSeriesOTT wins series 2-0VegasOTT -180

Recap · NHL

ttawa Senators went into Calgary Flames and beat them, 4–1.

OTT -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

OTT · top performer

OTT
Michael Amadio

Michael Amadio

RW · #22

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

CGY · top performer

CGY
Matvei Gridin

Matvei Gridin

RW · #92

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Ottawa Senators at Calgary Flames · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
4
1
OTT30-22-9CGY24-30-7
OTT

OTT

30-22-9

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
CGY

CGY

24-30-7

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

PIM

8

Season series

OTT wins series 2-0

Oct 30CGYCGY3@OTTOTT4
Mar 6OTTOTT4@CGYCGY1today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OTT -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

OTTOTT-18064%
CGYCGY+15040%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

OTT beat CGY 4-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
OTT0134
CGY1001

Period scoring

OTT won 2 · CGY won 1

0
1

1

1
0

2

3
0

3

OTT
CGY

Play-by-play · 308 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    OTT 4·CGY 1

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    OTT 4·CGY 1

  3. 3rd·19:46

    Lars Eller faceoff won against Matvei Gridin

    ·

    OTT 4·CGY 1

  4. 3rd·19:46

    Shane Pinto Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Amadio (15), Artem Zub (16)

    · ·

    OTT 4·CGY 1

  5. 3rd·19:37

    Ridly Greig faceoff won against Mikael Backlund

    ·

    OTT 3·CGY 1

  6. 3rd·19:37

    Goalie Stopped

    OTT 3·CGY 1

  7. 3rd·19:35

    Zach Whitecloud Wrist Shot saved by Linus Ullmark

    ·

    OTT 3·CGY 1

  8. 3rd·19:10

    Matvei Gridin Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    OTT 3·CGY 1

  9. 3rd·18:49

    Matt Coronato shot blocked by Shane Pinto

    ·

    OTT 3·CGY 1

  10. 3rd·18:38

    Ridly Greig hit Zayne Parekh

    ·

    OTT 3·CGY 1

  11. 3rd·18:35

    Morgan Frost Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    OTT 3·CGY 1

  12. 3rd·18:21

    Thomas Chabot Wrist Shot saved by Devin Cooley

    ·

    OTT 3·CGY 1

  13. 3rd·18:18

    Shane Pinto faceoff won against Morgan Frost

    ·

    OTT 3·CGY 1

  14. 3rd·18:18

    Goalie Stopped

    OTT 3·CGY 1

  15. 3rd·18:16

    Matt Coronato Wrist Shot saved by Linus Ullmark

    ·

    OTT 3·CGY 1

  16. 3rd·17:59

    Morgan Frost faceoff won against Ridly Greig

    ·

    OTT 3·CGY 1

  17. 3rd·17:59

    Tim Stützle Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: none

    OTT 3·CGY 1

  18. 3rd·16:45

    Tim Stützle Wrist Shot saved by Devin Cooley

    ·

    OTT 2·CGY 1

  19. 3rd·16:23

    Shane Pinto faceoff won against Nazem Kadri

    ·

    OTT 2·CGY 1

  20. 3rd·16:23

    Artem Zub Interference against Connor Zary

    ·

    OTT 2·CGY 1

  21. 3rd·16:20

    Kevin Bahl shot blocked by Ridly Greig

    ·

    OTT 2·CGY 1

  22. 3rd·16:17

    Nazem Kadri faceoff won against Shane Pinto

    ·

    OTT 2·CGY 1

  23. 3rd·16:17

    Icing

    OTT 2·CGY 1

  24. 3rd·16:10

    Shane Pinto faceoff won against Nazem Kadri

    ·

    OTT 2·CGY 1

  25. 3rd·16:10

    Goalie Stopped

    OTT 2·CGY 1

  26. 3rd·16:07

    Nazem Kadri Wrist Shot saved by Linus Ullmark

    ·

    OTT 2·CGY 1

  27. 3rd·15:44

    Giveaway by Thomas Chabot

    OTT 2·CGY 1

  28. 3rd·15:13

    Tyler Kleven shot blocked by Fabian Zetterlund

    ·

    OTT 2·CGY 1

  29. 3rd·15:10

    Lars Eller faceoff won against Morgan Frost

    ·

    OTT 2·CGY 1

  30. 3rd·15:10

    Puck in Netting

    OTT 2·CGY 1

Team stats

OTT

Away

Stat

CGY

Home

37

Shots

20

25.0

PCT

0.0

6

PIM

8

32

Faceoffs W

25

14

Blocks

17

13

Giveaways

18

5

Takeaways

3

Betting line

OTT -1.5·O/U 5.5·OTT -180/CGY +150

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Yan KuznetsovCGY · D
    SHOT MPH100.297
  • Mikael BacklundCGY · C
    SHOT MPH93.594
  • Adam KlapkaCGY · RW
    SHOT MPH92.691
  • Joel FarabeeCGY · LW
    DIST MI215.486
  • Nick JensenOTT · D
    SKATE MPH22.785

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · CGY favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CGY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CGY win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CGY win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+150

Close price

+150

Open no-vig

38.4%

Close no-vig

38.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR