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FINAL+4BUF
BUF

BUF

37-19-6

51
PIT

PIT

31-17-13

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Mar 5FinalSeriesPIT wins series 2-1VegasBUF -115

Recap · NHL

uffalo Sabres went into Pittsburgh Penguins and beat them, 5–1.

BUF -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BUF · top performer

BUF
Josh Norris

Josh Norris

C · #9

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

PIT · top performer

PIT
Ben Kindel

Ben Kindel

C · #81

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Buffalo Sabres at Pittsburgh Penguins · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
5
1
BUF37-19-6PIT31-17-13
BUF

BUF

37-19-6

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
PIT

PIT

31-17-13

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

PIM

25

Season series

PIT wins series 2-1

Nov 27BUFBUF2@PITPIT4
Feb 6PITPIT5@BUFBUF2
Mar 6BUFBUF5@PITPIT1today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BUF -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BUFBUF-11553%
PITPIT-10551%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BUF beat PIT 5-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
BUF1315
PIT1001

Period scoring

BUF won 2 · PIT won 0

1
1

1

3
0

2

1
0

3

BUF
PIT

Play-by-play · 292 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    BUF 5·PIT 1

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    BUF 5·PIT 1

  3. 3rd·19:59

    Avery Hayes Wrist Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

    ·

    BUF 5·PIT 1

  4. 3rd·19:35

    Giveaway by Tommy Novak

    BUF 5·PIT 1

  5. 3rd·18:45

    Josh Norris faceoff won against Thomas Novak

    ·

    BUF 5·PIT 1

  6. 3rd·18:45

    Goalie Stopped

    BUF 5·PIT 1

  7. 3rd·18:44

    Jack Quinn Wrist Shot saved by Arturs Silovs

    ·

    BUF 5·PIT 1

  8. 3rd·18:31

    Bowen Byram Wrist Shot saved by Arturs Silovs

    ·

    BUF 5·PIT 1

  9. 3rd·18:21

    Jack Quinn shot blocked by Ryan Shea

    ·

    BUF 5·PIT 1

  10. 3rd·18:19

    Connor Dewar hit Zach Metsa

    ·

    BUF 5·PIT 1

  11. 3rd·18:16

    Connor Clifton hit Ryan McLeod

    ·

    BUF 5·PIT 1

  12. 3rd·18:11

    Beck Malenstyn shot blocked by Zach Benson

    ·

    BUF 5·PIT 1

  13. 3rd·17:41

    Michael Kesselring Wrist Shot saved by Arturs Silovs

    ·

    BUF 5·PIT 1

  14. 3rd·17:30

    Giveaway by Blake Lizotte

    BUF 5·PIT 1

  15. 3rd·16:53

    Josh Dunne faceoff won against Blake Lizotte

    ·

    BUF 5·PIT 1

  16. 3rd·16:53

    Mattias Samuelsson Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: none

    BUF 5·PIT 1

  17. 3rd·16:49

    Giveaway by Samuel Girard

    BUF 4·PIT 1

  18. 3rd·16:36

    Beck Malenstyn shot blocked by Samuel Girard

    ·

    BUF 4·PIT 1

  19. 3rd·16:16

    Giveaway by Justin Brazeau

    BUF 4·PIT 1

  20. 3rd·16:10

    Rasmus Dahlin hit Justin Brazeau

    ·

    BUF 4·PIT 1

  21. 3rd·16:06

    Thomas Novak Wrist Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

    ·

    BUF 4·PIT 1

  22. 3rd·15:36

    Owen Power shot blocked by Josh Doan

    ·

    BUF 4·PIT 1

  23. 3rd·15:34

    Anthony Mantha shot blocked by Peyton Krebs

    ·

    BUF 4·PIT 1

  24. 3rd·15:25

    Giveaway by Anthony Mantha

    BUF 4·PIT 1

  25. 3rd·15:11

    Tage Thompson hit Rickard Rakell

    ·

    BUF 4·PIT 1

  26. 3rd·14:55

    Peyton Krebs faceoff won against Noel Acciari

    ·

    BUF 4·PIT 1

  27. 3rd·14:55

    Icing

    BUF 4·PIT 1

  28. 3rd·14:47

    Tage Thompson faceoff won against Blake Lizotte

    ·

    BUF 4·PIT 1

  29. 3rd·14:47

    Puck in Netting

    BUF 4·PIT 1

  30. 3rd·14:45

    Justin Brazeau Tip-In saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

    ·

    BUF 4·PIT 1

Team stats

BUF

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

26

Shots

28

16.7

PCT

0.0

12

PIM

25

28

Faceoffs W

19

11

Blocks

11

13

Giveaways

17

3

Takeaways

2

Betting line

BUF -1.5·O/U 6.5·BUF -115/PIT -105

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Ryan McLeodBUF · C
    BURSTS7299
  • Egor ChinakhovPIT · RW
    SHOT MPH94.799
  • Erik KarlssonPIT · D
    SKATE MPH22.897
  • Rasmus DahlinBUF · D
    DIST MI46.992
  • Bowen ByramBUF · D
    BURSTS1691

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · PIT favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(PIT win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(PIT win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-105

Close price

-105

Open no-vig

48.9%

Close no-vig

48.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR