Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BUF at PIT?

The model favors PIT, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4BUF

BUF

37-19-6

PIT

31-17-13

NHLThu, Mar 5FinalSeriesPIT wins series 2-1VegasBUF -115

BUF · top performer

Josh Norris

C · #9

2Points

—

SOG

PIT · top performer

Bryan Rust

RW · #17

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BensonLW · #6	0	0	1	0	2	1	0	13:22
J. DoanRW · #91	0	1	0	3	0	0	0	18:28
J. DunneC · #44	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	8:37
P. KrebsC · #19	0	0	0	1	4	1	2	10:35
B. MalenstynLW · #29	0	0	0	0	5	2	2	14:25
R. McLeodC · #71	1	0	2	1	0	0	2	18:23
J. NorrisC · #9	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	17:41
N. OstlundC · #86	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	16:42
J. QuinnRW · #22	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	11:49
T. ThompsonC · #72	0	1	0	1	2	1	0	18:43
A. TuchRW · #89	1	0	2	3	1	1	0	17:37
J. ZuckerLW · #17	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	14:11

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. ByramD · #4	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	22:32
R. DahlinD · #26	0	0	1	4	1	0	4	21:29
M. KesselringD · #8	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	12:58
Z. MetsaD · #73	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	11:00
O. PowerD · #25	1	1	3	1	1	1	0	20:45
M. SamuelssonD · #23	1	0	3	1	0	3	0	21:19

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
U. LuukkonenG · #1	28	1	27	.964	59:24

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. AcciariC · #55	0	0	0	2	1	2	2	15:27
J. BrazeauRW · #16	0	0	-1	3	2	0	0	14:13
E. ChinakhovRW · #59	0	0	-4	1	1	0	0	17:27
C. DewarC · #19	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	14:43
A. HayesRW · #85	0	0	-2	2	0	0	0	12:43
B. KindelC · #81	0	1	-2	0	1	0	2	14:52
B. LizotteC · #46	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	16:44
E. MalkinC · #71	0	0	0	1	0	0	17	5:54
A. ManthaRW · #39	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	15:58
T. NovakC · #18	0	0	-2	1	0	0	0	15:03
R. RakellRW · #67	0	0	-1	2	2	0	0	18:34
B. RustRW · #17	1	0	1	5	0	0	0	19:53

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CliftonD · #75	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	17:55
S. GirardD · #49	0	0	-1	0	1	3	0	18:02
E. KarlssonD · #65	0	0	-1	3	0	1	2	23:05
K. LetangD · #58	0	0	-3	1	3	0	0	17:09
R. SheaD · #5	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	18:30
P. WotherspoonD · #28	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	14:54

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. SilovsG · #37	25	4	21	.840	55:54

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

BUF

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

Shots

16.7

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

PIT wins series 2-1

Nov 27

BUF2@

PIT4

Feb 6

PIT5@

BUF2

Mar 6

BUF5@

PIT1today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BUF -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BUF-11553%

PIT-10551%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗

Line movement · 24 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BUF beat PIT 5-1. J. Norris led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 2 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
BUF	1	3	1	5
PIT	1	0	0	1

Period scoring

BUF won 2 · PIT won 0

BUF

PIT

Play-by-play · 292 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
BUF 5·PIT 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
BUF 5·PIT 1
3rd·19:59
Avery Hayes Wrist Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
·
BUF 5·PIT 1
3rd·19:35
Giveaway by Tommy Novak
BUF 5·PIT 1
3rd·18:45
Josh Norris faceoff won against Thomas Novak
·
BUF 5·PIT 1
3rd·18:45
Goalie Stopped
BUF 5·PIT 1
3rd·18:44
Jack Quinn Wrist Shot saved by Arturs Silovs
·
BUF 5·PIT 1
3rd·18:31
Bowen Byram Wrist Shot saved by Arturs Silovs
·
BUF 5·PIT 1
3rd·18:21
Jack Quinn shot blocked by Ryan Shea
·
BUF 5·PIT 1
3rd·18:19
Connor Dewar hit Zach Metsa
·
BUF 5·PIT 1
3rd·18:16
Connor Clifton hit Ryan McLeod
·
BUF 5·PIT 1
3rd·18:11
Beck Malenstyn shot blocked by Zach Benson
·
BUF 5·PIT 1
3rd·17:41
Michael Kesselring Wrist Shot saved by Arturs Silovs
·
BUF 5·PIT 1
3rd·17:30
Giveaway by Blake Lizotte
BUF 5·PIT 1
3rd·16:53
Josh Dunne faceoff won against Blake Lizotte
·
BUF 5·PIT 1
3rd·16:53
Mattias Samuelsson Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: none
BUF 5·PIT 1
3rd·16:49
Giveaway by Samuel Girard
BUF 4·PIT 1
3rd·16:36
Beck Malenstyn shot blocked by Samuel Girard
·
BUF 4·PIT 1
3rd·16:16
Giveaway by Justin Brazeau
BUF 4·PIT 1
3rd·16:10
Rasmus Dahlin hit Justin Brazeau
·
BUF 4·PIT 1
3rd·16:06
Thomas Novak Wrist Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
·
BUF 4·PIT 1
3rd·15:36
Owen Power shot blocked by Josh Doan
·
BUF 4·PIT 1
3rd·15:34
Anthony Mantha shot blocked by Peyton Krebs
·
BUF 4·PIT 1
3rd·15:25
Giveaway by Anthony Mantha
BUF 4·PIT 1
3rd·15:11
Tage Thompson hit Rickard Rakell
·
BUF 4·PIT 1
3rd·14:55
Peyton Krebs faceoff won against Noel Acciari
·
BUF 4·PIT 1
3rd·14:55
Icing
BUF 4·PIT 1
3rd·14:47
Tage Thompson faceoff won against Blake Lizotte
·
BUF 4·PIT 1
3rd·14:47
Puck in Netting
BUF 4·PIT 1
3rd·14:45
Justin Brazeau Tip-In saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
·
BUF 4·PIT 1

Betting line

BUF -1.5·O/U 6.5·BUF -115/PIT -105

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

uffalo Sabres went into Pittsburgh Penguins and beat them, 5–1.

BUF -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.0%

ensemble · PIT favored

Elo Static
52.0%
P(PIT win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
52.0%
P(PIT win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
52.0%
P(PIT win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-105

Close price

-105

Open no-vig

48.9%

Close no-vig

48.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BUF at PIT?: The model favors PIT, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Buffalo SabresPittsburgh Penguins

Elsewhere in the NHL