NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+5TB

FLA

29-25-3

37-14-4

NHLThu, Feb 5FinalSeriesTB wins series 3-1VegasTB -218

FLA · top performer

Mackie Samoskevich

RW · #11

1Points

—

SOG

TB · top performer

Oliver Bjorkstrand

RW · #22

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BennettC · #9	0	0	-2	3	1	0	12	16:02
J. BoqvistC · #70	0	1	-1	0	2	0	2	10:23
A.J. GreerLW · #10	0	0	-2	1	1	0	0	13:36
L. KuninC · #71	0	0	-1	1	3	1	0	12:13
A. LundellC · #15	0	1	-1	2	0	0	2	20:47
E. LuostarinenC · #27	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	17:10
S. ReinhartC · #13	0	0	-2	0	1	0	0	20:49
M. SamoskevichRW · #11	1	0	0	7	1	0	2	15:01
C. SchwindtRW · #79	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	15:18
M. TkachukLW · #19	0	0	-1	3	2	0	21	13:40
C. VerhaegheC · #23	0	0	-1	2	1	0	10	11:38
S. VilmanisLW · #95	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	14:57

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
U. BalinskisD · #26	0	0	-1	5	1	2	0	25:58
G. ForslingD · #42	0	0	-2	4	0	0	15	18:42
M. HovorkaD · #96	0	0	-3	0	0	0	0	11:27
N. MikkolaD · #77	0	0	-1	2	0	1	2	20:45
J. PetryD · #2	0	0	-3	2	0	0	0	22:05
D. SebrangoD · #6	0	0	-1	2	1	1	10	12:25

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. TarasovG · #40	25	5	20	.800	45:59
S. BobrovskyG · #72	3	1	2	.667	13:51

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. BjorkstrandRW · #22	1	1	3	3	0	2	0	16:01
C. DouglasC · #42	0	0	0	1	1	1	15	6:13
J. FinleyC · #62	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	6:42
Z. GirgensonsC · #28	1	0	2	4	4	0	2	18:20
G. GoncalvesC · #93	0	1	2	1	2	0	2	13:15
Y. GourdeC · #37	0	1	1	0	2	1	10	14:16
J. GuentzelC · #59	1	0	0	1	0	0	10	17:07
B. HagelLW · #38	1	0	1	1	0	0	5	19:28
P. HolmbergRW · #29	1	1	3	3	2	0	0	17:44
D. JamesC · #17	0	1	3	0	1	0	2	15:23
N. KucherovRW · #86	0	1	1	3	5	1	14	17:54
S. SabourinRW · #46	0	0	0	1	5	2	0	9:23

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. CarlileD · #67	0	0	2	1	2	1	2	16:42
E. CernakD · #81	1	0	1	2	4	1	0	23:13
V. HedmanD · #77	0	1	2	5	0	1	2	17:52
R. McDonaghD · #27	0	1	2	0	0	3	0	22:59
J.J. MoserD · #90	0	0	1	0	1	1	17	14:55
D. RaddyshD · #43	0	1	1	2	2	1	10	19:37

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. VasilevskiyG · #88	34	1	33	.971	59:56

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

FLA

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

16.7

PCT

25.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

TB wins series 3-1

Nov 15

TB3@

FLA1

Dec 16

FLA5@

TB2

Dec 28

TB4@

FLA2

Feb 6

FLA1@

TB6today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

FLA+18036%

TB-21869%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 20 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TB beat FLA 6-1. O. Bjorkstrand led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
FLA	0	0	1	1
TB	2	2	2	6

Period scoring

FLA won 0 · TB won 3

FLA

Play-by-play · 344 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
FLA 1·TB 6
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
FLA 1·TB 6
3rd·19:27
Giveaway by Uvis Balinskis
FLA 1·TB 6
3rd·19:01
Scott Sabourin hit Mikulas Hovorka
·
FLA 1·TB 6
3rd·18:49
Luke Kunin hit Declan Carlile
·
FLA 1·TB 6
3rd·18:33
Luke Kunin faceoff won against Dominic James
·
FLA 1·TB 6
3rd·18:33
Puck in Crowd
FLA 1·TB 6
3rd·18:25
Giveaway by Jesper Boqvist
FLA 1·TB 6
3rd·16:53
Carter Verhaeghe Snap Shot Short
·
FLA 1·TB 6
3rd·16:45
Gage Goncalves hit Sam Bennett
·
FLA 1·TB 6
3rd·16:06
Sam Bennett shot blocked by Ryan McDonagh
·
FLA 1·TB 6
3rd·16:05
Anton Lundell faceoff won against Zemgus Girgensons
·
FLA 1·TB 6
3rd·16:05
TV Timeout
FLA 1·TB 6
3rd·16:05
Declan Carlile Cross-checking against Mikulas Hovorka
·
FLA 1·TB 6
3rd·15:53
Donovan Sebrango Wrist Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
FLA 1·TB 6
3rd·15:52
Giveaway by Dominic James
FLA 1·TB 6
3rd·15:45
Gage Goncalves hit Mikulas Hovorka
·
FLA 1·TB 6
3rd·15:41
Cole Schwindt faceoff won against Dominic James
·
FLA 1·TB 6
3rd·15:41
Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: none
FLA 1·TB 6
3rd·15:39
Giveaway by Mikulas Hovorka
FLA 1·TB 5
3rd·15:24
Mikulas Hovorka shot blocked by Oliver Bjorkstrand
·
FLA 1·TB 5
3rd·15:20
Jesper Boqvist Snap Shot Wide Left
·
FLA 1·TB 5
3rd·15:18
Giveaway by Oliver Bjorkstrand
FLA 1·TB 5
3rd·15:05
Giveaway by Dominic James
FLA 1·TB 5
3rd·14:58
Mackie Samoskevich Snap Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
FLA 1·TB 5
3rd·14:25
Giveaway by Gage Goncalves
FLA 1·TB 5
3rd·14:10
Takeaway by Ryan McDonagh
FLA 1·TB 5
3rd·14:00
Zemgus Girgensons hit Niko Mikkola
·
FLA 1·TB 5
3rd·13:57
Pontus Holmberg Snap Shot saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
·
FLA 1·TB 5
3rd·13:16
Giveaway by Sandis Vilmanis
FLA 1·TB 5

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 5.5·FLA +180/TB -218

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ampa Bay Lightning held off Florida Panthers, 6–1.

TB -1.5 cashed (won by 5). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

66.5%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
66.8%
P(TB win)
46%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
66.8%
P(TB win)
10%
weight
Xg Blend
66.1%
P(TB win)
44%
weight

Disagreement

0.35 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

2 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TB vs FLA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

135

projections · 114 high confidence

Shots on goal

Nikita KucherovTB
3.5± 2.3high
Brandon HagelTB
3.2± 1.4high
Brady TkachukFLA
3.1± 2.4high

Goals

Brandon HagelTB
0.6± 0.8high
Carter VerhaegheFLA
0.4± 0.7high
Cole ReinhardtFLA
0.4± 0.7high

Points

Aleksander BarkovFLA
1.1± 1.1high
Matthew TkachukFLA
1.1± 1.4high
Nikita KucherovTB
1.1± 0.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Florida PanthersTampa Bay Lightning

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