Mar 17, 26sim 96
167
17(H)2
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+5TB
FLA
29-25-3
16
TB
37-14-4
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · NHL
ampa Bay Lightning held off Florida Panthers, 6–1.
TB -1.5 cashed (won by 5). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 1.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
FLA · top performer
Jesper Boqvist
C · #70
1Points
0
G
1
A
—
SOG
TB · top performer
Oliver Bjorkstrand
RW · #22
2Points
1
G
1
A
—
SOG
NHL · Florida Panthers at Tampa Bay Lightning · final
NHL · Box scoreEDGE
Final
FLA29-25-3
16
TB37-14-4
FLA29-25-3TB37-14-4
FLA
29-25-3
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
TB
37-14-4
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
76
PIM
91
Season series
TB wins series 3-1
Nov 15TB3@FLA1
TB3@FLA1Dec 16FLA5@TB2
FLA5@TB2Dec 28TB4@FLA2
TB4@FLA2Feb 6FLA1@TB6today
FLA1@TB6todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
TB -1.5
Total
5.5
Defensive · -3.0 vs avg
Moneyline
FLA+18036%TB-21869%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 9 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
5.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
TB beat FLA 6-1.
Last play
Game End
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| TB | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
Period scoring
FLA won 0 · TB won 3
0
2
1
0
2
2
1
2
3
FLA
TB
Play-by-play · 344 plays
period
event
player
- 3rd·20:00
Game End
FLA 1·TB 6
- 3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
FLA 1·TB 6
- 3rd·19:27
Giveaway by Uvis Balinskis
FLA 1·TB 6
- 3rd·19:01
Scott Sabourin hit Mikulas Hovorka
·
FLA 1·TB 6
- 3rd·18:49
Luke Kunin hit Declan Carlile
·
FLA 1·TB 6
- 3rd·18:33
Luke Kunin faceoff won against Dominic James
·
FLA 1·TB 6
- 3rd·18:33
Puck in Crowd
FLA 1·TB 6
- 3rd·18:25
Giveaway by Jesper Boqvist
FLA 1·TB 6
- 3rd·16:53
Carter Verhaeghe Snap Shot Short
·
FLA 1·TB 6
- 3rd·16:45
Gage Goncalves hit Sam Bennett
·
FLA 1·TB 6
- 3rd·16:06
Sam Bennett shot blocked by Ryan McDonagh
·
FLA 1·TB 6
- 3rd·16:05
Anton Lundell faceoff won against Zemgus Girgensons
·
FLA 1·TB 6
- 3rd·16:05
TV Timeout
FLA 1·TB 6
- 3rd·16:05
Declan Carlile Cross-checking against Mikulas Hovorka
·
FLA 1·TB 6
- 3rd·15:53
Donovan Sebrango Wrist Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
FLA 1·TB 6
- 3rd·15:52
Giveaway by Dominic James
FLA 1·TB 6
- 3rd·15:45
Gage Goncalves hit Mikulas Hovorka
·
FLA 1·TB 6
- 3rd·15:41
Cole Schwindt faceoff won against Dominic James
·
FLA 1·TB 6
- 3rd·15:41
Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: none
FLA 1·TB 6
- 3rd·15:39
Giveaway by Mikulas Hovorka
FLA 1·TB 5
- 3rd·15:24
Mikulas Hovorka shot blocked by Oliver Bjorkstrand
·
FLA 1·TB 5
- 3rd·15:20
Jesper Boqvist Snap Shot Wide Left
·
FLA 1·TB 5
- 3rd·15:18
Giveaway by Oliver Bjorkstrand
FLA 1·TB 5
- 3rd·15:05
Giveaway by Dominic James
FLA 1·TB 5
- 3rd·14:58
Mackie Samoskevich Snap Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
FLA 1·TB 5
- 3rd·14:25
Giveaway by Gage Goncalves
FLA 1·TB 5
- 3rd·14:10
Takeaway by Ryan McDonagh
FLA 1·TB 5
- 3rd·14:00
Zemgus Girgensons hit Niko Mikkola
·
FLA 1·TB 5
- 3rd·13:57
Pontus Holmberg Snap Shot saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
·
FLA 1·TB 5
- 3rd·13:16
Giveaway by Sandis Vilmanis
FLA 1·TB 5
Team stats
FLA
Away
Stat
TB
Home
34
Shots
28
16.7
PCT
25.0
76
PIM
91
31
Faceoffs W
25
5
Blocks
16
16
Giveaways
18
3
Takeaways
5
Betting line
TB -1.5·O/U 5.5·FLA +180/TB -218
NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 15 skaters with EDGE
Gustav ForslingFLA · DSHOT MPH100.497
Uvis BalinskisFLA · DSKATE MPH23.195
Sam BennettFLA · CDIST MI239.693
Mackie SamoskevichFLA · RWBURSTS18693
Jeff PetryMIN · DSHOT MPH95.690
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.1%
ensemble · TB favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
TB vs FLA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
138
projections · 126 high confidence
Shots on goal
- Nikita KucherovTB3.5± 2.3high
- Brandon HagelTB3.2± 1.4high
- Jake GuentzelTB2.8± 1.5high
Goals
- Brandon HagelTB0.6± 0.8high
- Carter VerhaegheFLA0.4± 0.7high
- Cole ReinhardtFLA0.4± 0.7high
Points
- Aleksander BarkovFLA1.1± 1.1high
- Matthew TkachukFLA1.1± 1.4high
- Nikita KucherovTB1.1± 0.9high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands