Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYI at NJ?

The model favors NJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2NYI

NYI

32-21-5

28-27-2

NHLThu, Feb 5FinalSeriesNYI win series 4-0VegasNJ -115

NYI · top performer

Bo Horvat

C · #14

2Points

—

SOG

NJ · top performer

Nico Hischier

C · #13

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BarzalC · #13	1	0	1	1	2	0	0	18:44
C. CizikasC · #53	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	12:05
J. DrouinLW · #29	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	16:13
M. GatcombC · #16	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	9:20
E. HeinemanLW · #51	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	16:49
S. HolmstromRW · #10	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	14:39
B. HorvatC · #14	1	1	1	1	3	1	0	20:50
A. LeeLW · #27	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	14:32
K. MacLeanC · #32	0	1	1	1	3	0	2	10:22
J. PageauC · #44	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	14:44
O. PalatLW · #81	0	0	2	2	2	3	0	17:44
C. RitchieC · #64	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	13:54

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. DeAngeloD · #77	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	20:32
S. MayfieldD · #24	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	16:26
A. PelechD · #3	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	22:31
R. PulockD · #6	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	19:40
M. SchaeferD · #48	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	24:17
C. SoucyD · #4	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	14:38

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. SorokinG · #30	24	1	23	.958	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. BjugstadC · #72	0	0	-1	1	3	0	0	10:42
J. BrattLW · #63	0	1	-1	4	1	0	0	18:44
C. BrownRW · #16	0	0	-1	2	0	2	0	19:02
P. CotterLW · #47	0	0	-1	1	4	1	0	8:37
E. DadonovLW · #33	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:41
C. GlassC · #12	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	13:34
A. GritsyukRW · #81	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	16:30
L. HameenahoRW · #29	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:38
N. HischierC · #13	1	0	-1	4	1	1	0	20:02
T. MeierRW · #28	0	0	0	2	1	0	2	18:46
D. MercerC · #91	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	19:22
M. TsyplakovRW · #42	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	9:18

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. DillonD · #5	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	17:04
D. HamiltonD · #7	0	0	1	3	0	2	0	22:47
J. KovacevicD · #8	0	0	-2	3	1	2	0	19:18
S. NemecD · #17	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	19:03
B. PesceD · #22	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	19:44
J. SiegenthalerD · #71	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	18:09

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AllenG · #34	13	2	11	.846	57:59

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

NYI

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

NYI win series 4-0

Nov 11

NYI3@

NJ2

Dec 24

NJ1@

NYI2

Jan 7

NJ0@

NYI9

Feb 6

NYI3@

NJ1today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NJ -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NYI-10551%

NJ-11553%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NJ -1.5↗SpreadBet NJ -1.5↗

Line movement · 20 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NYI beat NJ 3-1. B. Horvat led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 1 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
NYI	0	1	2	3
NJ	0	1	0	1

Period scoring

NYI won 1 · NJ won 0

NYI

Play-by-play · 286 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
NYI 3·NJ 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
NYI 3·NJ 1
3rd·19:36
Casey Cizikas faceoff won against Nick Bjugstad
·
NYI 3·NJ 1
3rd·19:36
Mathew Barzal Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (16)
·
NYI 3·NJ 1
3rd·19:27
Giveaway by Simon Nemec
NYI 2·NJ 1
3rd·18:51
Takeaway by Scott Mayfield
NYI 2·NJ 1
3rd·18:29
Dougie Hamilton shot blocked by Bo Horvat
·
NYI 2·NJ 1
3rd·17:58
Timo Meier Slap Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
NYI 2·NJ 1
3rd·17:47
Dougie Hamilton shot blocked by Casey Cizikas
·
NYI 2·NJ 1
3rd·17:40
Giveaway by Emil Heineman
NYI 2·NJ 1
3rd·17:37
Jesper Bratt hit Ryan Pulock
·
NYI 2·NJ 1
3rd·17:07
Giveaway by Anders Lee
NYI 2·NJ 1
3rd·16:33
Jean-Gabriel Pageau faceoff won against Cody Glass
·
NYI 2·NJ 1
3rd·16:33
Bo Horvat Goal (24) Backhand, assists: none
NYI 2·NJ 1
3rd·16:28
Nico Hischier faceoff won against Bo Horvat
·
NYI 1·NJ 1
3rd·16:28
Goalie Stopped
NYI 1·NJ 1
3rd·16:25
Adam Pelech Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
NYI 1·NJ 1
3rd·15:11
Casey Cizikas faceoff won against Cody Glass
·
NYI 1·NJ 1
3rd·15:11
Puck in Crowd
NYI 1·NJ 1
3rd·14:49
Anders Lee Wrist Shot Hit Right Post
·
NYI 1·NJ 1
3rd·14:15
Simon Holmstrom Backhand saved by Jake Allen
·
NYI 1·NJ 1
3rd·13:42
Bo Horvat hit Jonas Siegenthaler
·
NYI 1·NJ 1
3rd·13:01
Bo Horvat faceoff won against Lenni Hameenaho
·
NYI 1·NJ 1
3rd·13:01
Puck Frozen - Goalie
NYI 1·NJ 1
3rd·12:57
Giveaway by Carson Soucy
NYI 1·NJ 1
3rd·12:49
Cody Glass faceoff won against Kyle MacLean
·
NYI 1·NJ 1
3rd·12:49
Off-side
NYI 1·NJ 1
3rd·12:31
Anders Lee hit Simon Nemec
·
NYI 1·NJ 1
3rd·12:25
Nick Bjugstad hit Adam Pelech
·
NYI 1·NJ 1
3rd·11:57
Evgenii Dadonov Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
NYI 1·NJ 1

Betting line

NJ -1.5·O/U 5.5·NYI -105/NJ -115

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ew York Islanders went into New Jersey Devils and beat them, 3–1.

NYI +1.5 cashed (NJ lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.4%

ensemble · NJ favored

Elo Static
53.4%
P(NJ win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
53.4%
P(NJ win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
53.4%
P(NJ win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-115

Close price

-115

Open no-vig

51.1%

Close no-vig

51.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYI at NJ?: The model favors NJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Team pages

New York IslandersNew Jersey Devils

Elsewhere in the NHL