Feb 3, 26sim 98
121
23(H)4
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+2NYI
NYI
32-21-5
31
NJ
28-27-2
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · NHL
ew York Islanders went into New Jersey Devils and beat them, 3–1.
NYI +1.5 cashed (NJ lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 1.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NYI · top performer
Bo Horvat
C · #14
2Points
1
G
1
A
—
SOG
NJ · top performer
Jesper Bratt
LW · #63
1Points
0
G
1
A
—
SOG
NHL · New York Islanders at New Jersey Devils · final
NHL · Box scoreEDGE
Final
NYI32-21-5
31
NJ28-27-2
NYI32-21-5NJ28-27-2
NYI
32-21-5
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
NJ
28-27-2
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
2
PIM
2
Season series
NYI win series 4-0
Nov 11NYI3@NJ2
NYI3@NJ2Dec 24NJ1@NYI2
NJ1@NYI2Jan 7NJ0@NYI9
NJ0@NYI9Feb 6NYI3@NJ1today
NYI3@NJ1todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
NJ -1.5
Total
5.5
Defensive · -3.0 vs avg
Moneyline
NYI-10551%NJ-11553%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 10 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
5.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
NYI beat NJ 3-1.
Last play
Game End
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| NJ | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Period scoring
NYI won 1 · NJ won 0
0
0
1
1
1
2
2
0
3
NYI
NJ
Play-by-play · 286 plays
period
event
player
- 3rd·20:00
Game End
NYI 3·NJ 1
- 3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
NYI 3·NJ 1
- 3rd·19:36
Casey Cizikas faceoff won against Nick Bjugstad
·
NYI 3·NJ 1
- 3rd·19:36
Mathew Barzal Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (16)
·
NYI 3·NJ 1
- 3rd·19:27
Giveaway by Simon Nemec
NYI 2·NJ 1
- 3rd·18:51
Takeaway by Scott Mayfield
NYI 2·NJ 1
- 3rd·18:29
Dougie Hamilton shot blocked by Bo Horvat
·
NYI 2·NJ 1
- 3rd·17:58
Timo Meier Slap Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
NYI 2·NJ 1
- 3rd·17:47
Dougie Hamilton shot blocked by Casey Cizikas
·
NYI 2·NJ 1
- 3rd·17:40
Giveaway by Emil Heineman
NYI 2·NJ 1
- 3rd·17:37
Jesper Bratt hit Ryan Pulock
·
NYI 2·NJ 1
- 3rd·17:07
Giveaway by Anders Lee
NYI 2·NJ 1
- 3rd·16:33
Jean-Gabriel Pageau faceoff won against Cody Glass
·
NYI 2·NJ 1
- 3rd·16:33
Bo Horvat Goal (24) Backhand, assists: none
NYI 2·NJ 1
- 3rd·16:28
Nico Hischier faceoff won against Bo Horvat
·
NYI 1·NJ 1
- 3rd·16:28
Goalie Stopped
NYI 1·NJ 1
- 3rd·16:25
Adam Pelech Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
NYI 1·NJ 1
- 3rd·15:11
Casey Cizikas faceoff won against Cody Glass
·
NYI 1·NJ 1
- 3rd·15:11
Puck in Crowd
NYI 1·NJ 1
- 3rd·14:49
Anders Lee Wrist Shot Hit Right Post
·
NYI 1·NJ 1
- 3rd·14:15
Simon Holmstrom Backhand saved by Jake Allen
·
NYI 1·NJ 1
- 3rd·13:42
Bo Horvat hit Jonas Siegenthaler
·
NYI 1·NJ 1
- 3rd·13:01
Bo Horvat faceoff won against Lenni Hameenaho
·
NYI 1·NJ 1
- 3rd·13:01
Puck Frozen - Goalie
NYI 1·NJ 1
- 3rd·12:57
Giveaway by Carson Soucy
NYI 1·NJ 1
- 3rd·12:49
Cody Glass faceoff won against Kyle MacLean
·
NYI 1·NJ 1
- 3rd·12:49
Off-side
NYI 1·NJ 1
- 3rd·12:31
Anders Lee hit Simon Nemec
·
NYI 1·NJ 1
- 3rd·12:25
Nick Bjugstad hit Adam Pelech
·
NYI 1·NJ 1
- 3rd·11:57
Evgenii Dadonov Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
NYI 1·NJ 1
Team stats
NYI
Away
Stat
NJ
Home
14
Shots
24
0.0
PCT
0.0
2
PIM
2
33
Faceoffs W
16
12
Blocks
14
16
Giveaways
23
5
Takeaways
5
Betting line
NJ -1.5·O/U 5.5·NYI -105/NJ -115
NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 14 skaters with EDGE
Matthew SchaeferNYI · DBURSTS26999+
Ryan PulockNYI · DSHOT MPH103.099+
Mathew BarzalNYI · CDIST MI274.399
Emil HeinemanNYI · LWSHOT MPH97.399- Bo HorvatNYI · CSHOT MPH93.494
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.1%
ensemble · NJ favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NJ win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NJ win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NJ win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
-115
Close price
-115
Open no-vig
51.1%
Close no-vig
51.1%
Line barely moved · Graded: miss
Player projections
NJ vs NYI.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
135
projections · 120 high confidence
Shots on goal
- Jack HughesNJ4.3± 1.7high
- Timo MeierNJ3.3± 3.0high
- Bo HorvatNYI2.9± 0.9high
Goals
- Jack HughesNJ0.6± 0.8high
- Dawson MercerNJ0.4± 0.7high
- Arseny GritsyukNJ0.3± 0.5high
Points
- Jack HughesNJ1.6± 1.7high
- Jesper BrattNJ1.0± 1.7high
- Nico HischierNJ0.9± 1.1high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands