Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NSH at WSH?

The model favors NSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2WSH

NSH

26-24-7

WSH

29-23-7

NHLThu, Feb 5FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasWSH -175

NSH · top performer

Jonathan Marchessault

RW · #81

1Points

—

SOG

WSH · top performer

Jakob Chychrun

D · #6

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BuntingLW · #58	0	0	1	2	0	1	0	14:57
L. EvangelistaRW · #77	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	18:13
F. ForsbergLW · #9	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	16:15
E. HaulaLW · #56	0	1	0	2	0	0	2	18:34
T. JostC · #17	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	9:30
J. MarchessaultRW · #81	1	0	0	4	1	0	4	17:07
M. McCarronC · #47	1	0	1	4	2	0	0	15:45
R. O'ReillyC · #90	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	21:11
R. SchaeferLW · #49	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	6:33
C. SmithRW · #36	0	1	1	0	4	1	0	14:25
S. StamkosC · #91	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	18:33
O. WiesblattC · #89	0	0	-1	0	1	0	2	6:31

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BarronD · #20	0	0	1	2	4	0	0	18:46
N. HagueD · #41	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	17:09
R. JosiD · #59	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	28:18
N. PerbixD · #48	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	16:08
B. SkjeiD · #76	0	0	0	1	1	1	4	18:44
A. WilsbyD · #83	0	2	1	1	0	1	0	16:38

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AnnunenG · #29	30	4	26	.867	56:41

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. BeauvillierLW · #72	0	0	-1	3	0	1	0	17:47
N. DowdC · #26	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	18:20
P. DuboisLW · #80	1	1	1	2	1	1	0	17:35
B. DuhaimeRW · #22	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	13:21
E. FrankC · #53	0	0	0	2	3	3	0	13:49
H. LapierreC · #29	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	7:02
R. LeonardRW · #9	0	0	0	1	2	0	2	13:45
A. OvechkinLW · #8	0	1	0	2	1	0	2	13:15
A. ProtasC · #21	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	18:16
J. SourdifRW · #34	0	0	-1	1	2	1	2	14:30
D. StromeC · #17	0	2	-1	1	0	0	0	11:51
T. WilsonRW · #43	1	0	1	2	4	1	0	19:32

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. CarlsonD · #74	0	1	0	1	0	2	0	7:03
J. ChychrunD · #6	2	1	1	7	0	2	0	29:21
M. FehervaryD · #42	0	0	0	0	6	1	0	18:57
M. RoyD · #3	0	0	-1	1	3	2	0	21:05
R. SandinD · #38	0	0	0	1	0	1	2	21:08
T. van RiemsdykD · #57	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	16:07

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. ThompsonG · #48	29	2	27	.931	59:16

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

NSH

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

33.3

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jan 12

WSH2@

NSH3

Feb 6

NSH2@

WSH4today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

WSH -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NSH+14541%

WSH-17564%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet WSH -1.5↗SpreadBet WSH -1.5↗

Line movement · 23 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

WSH beat NSH 4-2. J. Chychrun led the way — 2 G · 1 A · 7 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
NSH	0	1	1	2
WSH	2	1	1	4

Period scoring

NSH won 0 · WSH won 1

NSH

WSH

Play-by-play · 305 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
NSH 2·WSH 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
NSH 2·WSH 4
3rd·19:38
Tyson Jost faceoff won against Nic Dowd
·
NSH 2·WSH 4
3rd·19:38
High Stick
NSH 2·WSH 4
3rd·19:23
Pierre-Luc Dubois hit Ryan O'Reilly
·
NSH 2·WSH 4
3rd·19:20
Ryan O'Reilly Slap Shot saved by Logan Thompson
·
NSH 2·WSH 4
3rd·19:11
Michael Bunting shot blocked by Jakob Chychrun
·
NSH 2·WSH 4
3rd·18:59
Luke Evangelista Tip-In Above Crossbar
·
NSH 2·WSH 4
3rd·18:46
Giveaway by Ethen Frank
NSH 2·WSH 4
3rd·18:35
Roman Josi shot blocked by Ethen Frank
·
NSH 2·WSH 4
3rd·18:23
Erik Haula Snap Shot saved by Logan Thompson
·
NSH 2·WSH 4
3rd·18:03
Martin Fehervary hit Michael McCarron
·
NSH 2·WSH 4
3rd·17:57
Michael McCarron Tip-In Short
·
NSH 2·WSH 4
3rd·17:36
Jakob Chychrun shot blocked by Luke Evangelista
·
NSH 2·WSH 4
3rd·17:03
Luke Evangelista shot blocked by Tom Wilson
·
NSH 2·WSH 4
3rd·16:38
Giveaway by Luke Evangelista
NSH 2·WSH 4
3rd·16:37
Luke Evangelista Snap Shot Short
·
NSH 2·WSH 4
3rd·15:52
Nic Dowd faceoff won against Ryan O'Reilly
·
NSH 2·WSH 4
3rd·15:52
Puck Frozen - Skater
NSH 2·WSH 4
3rd·15:42
Roman Josi Slap Shot saved by Logan Thompson
·
NSH 2·WSH 4
3rd·15:39
Matt Roy hit Ryan O'Reilly
·
NSH 2·WSH 4
3rd·15:34
Martin Fehervary hit Luke Evangelista
·
NSH 2·WSH 4
3rd·15:26
Ryan O'Reilly faceoff won against Aliaksei Protas
·
NSH 2·WSH 4
3rd·15:26
Rasmus Sandin Slashing against Tyson Jost
·
NSH 2·WSH 4
3rd·14:51
Michael McCarron faceoff won against Nic Dowd
·
NSH 2·WSH 4
3rd·14:51
Goalie Stopped
NSH 2·WSH 4
3rd·14:49
Justin Sourdif Snap Shot saved by Justus Annunen
·
NSH 2·WSH 4
3rd·14:06
Michael Bunting shot blocked by Rasmus Sandin
·
NSH 2·WSH 4
3rd·13:30
Adam Wilsby Slap Shot Wide Right
·
NSH 2·WSH 4
3rd·13:23
Brady Skjei shot blocked by Matt Roy
·
NSH 2·WSH 4

Betting line

WSH -1.5·O/U 6.5·NSH +145/WSH -175

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ashington Capitals held off Nashville Predators, 4–2.

WSH -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.1%

ensemble · WSH favored

Elo Static
58.1%
P(WSH win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
58.1%
P(WSH win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
58.1%
P(WSH win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+145

Close price

+145

Open no-vig

39.1%

Close no-vig

39.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NSH at WSH?: The model favors NSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Team pages

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