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FINAL+2WSH
NSH

NSH

26-24-7

24
WSH

WSH

29-23-7

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Feb 5FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasWSH -175

Recap · NHL

ashington Capitals held off Nashville Predators, 4–2.

WSH -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NSH · top performer

NSH
Erik Haula

Erik Haula

LW · #56

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

WSH · top performer

WSH
Pierre-Luc Dubois

Pierre-Luc Dubois

LW · #80

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Nashville Predators at Washington Capitals · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
2
4
NSH26-24-7WSH29-23-7
NSH

NSH

26-24-7

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
WSH

WSH

29-23-7

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

PIM

8

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jan 12WSHWSH2@NSHNSH3
Feb 6NSHNSH2@WSHWSH4today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

WSH -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NSHNSH+14541%
WSHWSH-17564%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet WSH -1.5↗SpreadBet WSH -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

WSH beat NSH 4-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
NSH0112
WSH2114

Period scoring

NSH won 0 · WSH won 1

0
2

1

1
1

2

1
1

3

NSH
WSH

Play-by-play · 305 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    NSH 2·WSH 4

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    NSH 2·WSH 4

  3. 3rd·19:38

    Tyson Jost faceoff won against Nic Dowd

    ·

    NSH 2·WSH 4

  4. 3rd·19:38

    High Stick

    NSH 2·WSH 4

  5. 3rd·19:23

    Pierre-Luc Dubois hit Ryan O'Reilly

    ·

    NSH 2·WSH 4

  6. 3rd·19:20

    Ryan O'Reilly Slap Shot saved by Logan Thompson

    ·

    NSH 2·WSH 4

  7. 3rd·19:11

    Michael Bunting shot blocked by Jakob Chychrun

    ·

    NSH 2·WSH 4

  8. 3rd·18:59

    Luke Evangelista Tip-In Above Crossbar

    ·

    NSH 2·WSH 4

  9. 3rd·18:46

    Giveaway by Ethen Frank

    NSH 2·WSH 4

  10. 3rd·18:35

    Roman Josi shot blocked by Ethen Frank

    ·

    NSH 2·WSH 4

  11. 3rd·18:23

    Erik Haula Snap Shot saved by Logan Thompson

    ·

    NSH 2·WSH 4

  12. 3rd·18:03

    Martin Fehervary hit Michael McCarron

    ·

    NSH 2·WSH 4

  13. 3rd·17:57

    Michael McCarron Tip-In Short

    ·

    NSH 2·WSH 4

  14. 3rd·17:36

    Jakob Chychrun shot blocked by Luke Evangelista

    ·

    NSH 2·WSH 4

  15. 3rd·17:03

    Luke Evangelista shot blocked by Tom Wilson

    ·

    NSH 2·WSH 4

  16. 3rd·16:38

    Giveaway by Luke Evangelista

    NSH 2·WSH 4

  17. 3rd·16:37

    Luke Evangelista Snap Shot Short

    ·

    NSH 2·WSH 4

  18. 3rd·15:52

    Nic Dowd faceoff won against Ryan O'Reilly

    ·

    NSH 2·WSH 4

  19. 3rd·15:52

    Puck Frozen - Skater

    NSH 2·WSH 4

  20. 3rd·15:42

    Roman Josi Slap Shot saved by Logan Thompson

    ·

    NSH 2·WSH 4

  21. 3rd·15:39

    Matt Roy hit Ryan O'Reilly

    ·

    NSH 2·WSH 4

  22. 3rd·15:34

    Martin Fehervary hit Luke Evangelista

    ·

    NSH 2·WSH 4

  23. 3rd·15:26

    Ryan O'Reilly faceoff won against Aliaksei Protas

    ·

    NSH 2·WSH 4

  24. 3rd·15:26

    Rasmus Sandin Slashing against Tyson Jost

    ·

    NSH 2·WSH 4

  25. 3rd·14:51

    Michael McCarron faceoff won against Nic Dowd

    ·

    NSH 2·WSH 4

  26. 3rd·14:51

    Goalie Stopped

    NSH 2·WSH 4

  27. 3rd·14:49

    Justin Sourdif Snap Shot saved by Justus Annunen

    ·

    NSH 2·WSH 4

  28. 3rd·14:06

    Michael Bunting shot blocked by Rasmus Sandin

    ·

    NSH 2·WSH 4

  29. 3rd·13:30

    Adam Wilsby Slap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    NSH 2·WSH 4

  30. 3rd·13:23

    Brady Skjei shot blocked by Matt Roy

    ·

    NSH 2·WSH 4

Team stats

NSH

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

29

Shots

30

0.0

PCT

33.3

12

PIM

8

28

Faceoffs W

26

8

Blocks

18

15

Giveaways

15

4

Takeaways

3

Betting line

WSH -1.5·O/U 6.5·NSH +145/WSH -175

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • John CarlsonANA · D
    SHOT MPH102.799+
  • Ryan LeonardWSH · RW
    SKATE MPH24.399
  • Alex OvechkinWSH · LW
    SHOT MPH97.399
  • Ryan O'ReillyNSH · C
    DIST MI265.898
  • Ethen FrankWSH · C
    BURSTS22797

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · WSH favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(WSH win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(WSH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+145

Close price

+145

Open no-vig

39.1%

Close no-vig

39.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR