Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CAR at NYR?

The model favors NYR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2CAR

CAR

36-15-6

NYR

22-29-6

NHLThu, Feb 5FinalSeriesCAR wins series 3-1VegasCAR -225

CAR · top performer

Nikolaj Ehlers

LW · #27

1Points

—

SOG

NYR · top performer

Will Cuylle

LW · #50

0Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AhoC · #20	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	20:44
J. BlakeRW · #53	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	14:54
W. CarrierLW · #28	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	10:56
N. EhlersLW · #27	0	1	1	5	0	0	0	16:01
T. HallLW · #71	0	0	0	3	2	0	2	13:39
M. JankowskiLW · #77	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	10:14
S. JarvisC · #24	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	21:55
J. KotkaniemiC · #82	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	9:34
J. MartinookLW · #48	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	13:35
J. StaalC · #11	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	17:21
L. StankovenC · #22	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	14:27
A. SvechnikovRW · #37	1	0	1	2	1	1	0	18:20

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChatfieldD · #5	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	22:07
S. GostisbehereD · #4	0	0	0	5	0	1	0	19:21
K. MillerD · #19	0	0	0	2	1	2	2	17:46
A. NikishinD · #21	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	14:16
J. SlavinD · #74	0	0	2	5	0	1	0	20:22
S. WalkerD · #26	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	20:31

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BussiG · #32	16	0	16	1.000	59:57

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. BlidhLW · #25	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	9:04
J. BrodzinskiC · #22	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	13:50
S. CarrickC · #39	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	8:36
W. CuylleLW · #50	0	0	-1	4	4	1	0	18:05
N. LabaC · #42	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	13:36
A. LafreniereLW · #13	0	0	-1	2	1	1	0	15:48
J.T. MillerLW · #8	0	0	-2	2	2	1	0	18:38
G. PerreaultRW · #94	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	16:43
T. RaddyshRW · #14	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	15:21
M. RempeC · #73	0	0	-1	0	4	1	0	7:08
V. TrocheckC · #16	0	0	-1	3	4	1	2	20:31
M. ZibanejadC · #93	0	0	-2	1	1	1	0	21:57

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. BorgenD · #17	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	18:31
V. GavrikovD · #44	0	0	-2	1	0	0	4	22:37
V. IorioD · #6	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	14:15
M. RobertsonD · #29	0	0	0	1	0	5	0	20:56
B. SchneiderD · #4	0	0	-1	0	3	1	0	22:20
U. VaakanainenD · #18	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	16:50

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. QuickG · #32	42	1	41	.976	59:14

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

CAR

Away

Stat

NYR

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

CAR wins series 3-1

Nov 5

CAR3@

NYR0

Nov 27

NYR4@

CAR2

Dec 30

NYR2@

CAR3

Feb 6

CAR2@

NYR0today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CAR-22569%

NYR+18535%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 19 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CAR beat NYR 2-0. N. Ehlers led the way — 1 A · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
CAR	1	0	1	2
NYR	0	0	0	0

Period scoring

CAR won 2 · NYR won 0

CAR

NYR

Play-by-play · 298 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
CAR 2·NYR 0
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CAR 2·NYR 0
3rd·19:32
Urho Vaakanainen shot blocked by Shayne Gostisbehere
·
CAR 2·NYR 0
3rd·19:28
Noah Laba shot blocked by Mark Jankowski
·
CAR 2·NYR 0
3rd·19:15
Noah Laba hit Mark Jankowski
·
CAR 2·NYR 0
3rd·19:06
Noah Laba faceoff won against Mark Jankowski
·
CAR 2·NYR 0
3rd·19:06
Jordan Staal Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (29), Jackson Blake (17)
· ·
CAR 2·NYR 0
3rd·17:56
Sean Walker hit Gabe Perreault
·
CAR 1·NYR 0
3rd·17:56
Giveaway by Gabe Perreault
CAR 1·NYR 0
3rd·16:20
Mark Jankowski faceoff won against Noah Laba
·
CAR 1·NYR 0
3rd·16:20
Off-side
CAR 1·NYR 0
3rd·16:14
Seth Jarvis hit Will Borgen
·
CAR 1·NYR 0
3rd·15:27
Jordan Staal faceoff won against Vincent Trocheck
·
CAR 1·NYR 0
3rd·15:27
Puck in Netting
CAR 1·NYR 0
3rd·15:25
Will Cuylle shot blocked by K'Andre Miller
· ·
CAR 1·NYR 0
3rd·15:24
Vincent Trocheck faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
CAR 1·NYR 0
3rd·15:24
Icing
CAR 1·NYR 0
3rd·15:16
Will Cuylle shot blocked by K'Andre Miller
· ·
CAR 1·NYR 0
3rd·14:25
Jaccob Slavin Slap Shot saved by Jonathan Quick
·
CAR 1·NYR 0
3rd·14:23
Sebastian Aho faceoff won against Mika Zibanejad
·
CAR 1·NYR 0
3rd·14:23
Icing
CAR 1·NYR 0
3rd·14:15
Mika Zibanejad faceoff won against Sebastian Aho
·
CAR 1·NYR 0
3rd·14:15
Goalie Stopped
CAR 1·NYR 0
3rd·14:13
Nikolaj Ehlers Wrist Shot saved by Jonathan Quick
·
CAR 1·NYR 0
3rd·13:29
Seth Jarvis Snap Shot Wide Left
·
CAR 1·NYR 0
3rd·13:16
Jaccob Slavin Slap Shot saved by Jonathan Quick
·
CAR 1·NYR 0
3rd·13:01
William Carrier Wrist Shot saved by Jonathan Quick
·
CAR 1·NYR 0
3rd·12:50
Mark Jankowski faceoff won against J.T. Miller
· ·
CAR 1·NYR 0
3rd·12:50
Icing
CAR 1·NYR 0
3rd·12:41
Mark Jankowski faceoff won against J.T. Miller
· ·
CAR 1·NYR 0

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 6.5·CAR -225/NYR +185

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

arolina Hurricanes went into New York Rangers and beat them, 2–0.

CAR -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

45.6%

ensemble · CAR favored

Elo Static
45.6%
P(NYR win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
45.6%
P(NYR win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
45.6%
P(NYR win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+185

Close price

+185

Open no-vig

33.6%

Close no-vig

33.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CAR at NYR?: The model favors NYR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Team pages

Carolina HurricanesNew York Rangers

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