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FINAL+3PIT
PIT

PIT

29-15-12

52
BUF

BUF

32-19-6

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Feb 5FinalSeriesPIT leads series 2-0VegasBUF -125

Recap · NHL

ittsburgh Penguins went into Buffalo Sabres and beat them, 5–2.

PIT +1.5 cashed (BUF lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PIT · top performer

PIT
Avery Hayes

Avery Hayes

RW · #85

2Points

2

G

0

A

—

SOG

BUF · top performer

BUF
Ryan McLeod

Ryan McLeod

C · #71

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Pittsburgh Penguins at Buffalo Sabres · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
5
2
PIT29-15-12BUF32-19-6
PIT

PIT

29-15-12

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
BUF

BUF

32-19-6

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

15

PIM

11

Season series

PIT leads series 2-0

Nov 27BUFBUF2@PITPIT4
Feb 6PITPIT5@BUFBUF2today
Mar 6BUFBUF5@PITPIT1

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BUF -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PITPIT+10549%
BUFBUF-12556%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PIT beat BUF 5-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
PIT2125
BUF1012

Period scoring

PIT won 3 · BUF won 0

2
1

1

1
0

2

2
1

3

PIT
BUF

Play-by-play · 327 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    PIT 5·BUF 2

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    PIT 5·BUF 2

  3. 3rd·19:59

    Beck Malenstyn Wrist Shot saved by Arturs Silovs

    ·

    PIT 5·BUF 2

  4. 3rd·19:46

    Tyson Kozak faceoff won against Kevin Hayes

    · ·

    PIT 5·BUF 2

  5. 3rd·19:46

    Ben Kindel Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Dewar (11)

    ·

    PIT 5·BUF 2

  6. 3rd·19:42

    Connor Dewar Snap Shot Wide Left

    PIT 4·BUF 2

  7. 3rd·19:36

    Alex Tuch Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    PIT 4·BUF 2

  8. 3rd·19:16

    Alex Tuch Tip-In Wide Left

    ·

    PIT 4·BUF 2

  9. 3rd·19:01

    Josh Doan Wrist Shot Failed Bank Attempt

    ·

    PIT 4·BUF 2

  10. 3rd·18:59

    Rasmus Dahlin shot blocked by Bryan Rust

    ·

    PIT 4·BUF 2

  11. 3rd·18:31

    Connor Dewar faceoff won against Jason Zucker

    ·

    PIT 4·BUF 2

  12. 3rd·18:31

    Anthony Mantha Hooking against Owen Power

    ·

    PIT 4·BUF 2

  13. 3rd·18:31

    Goalie Stopped

    PIT 4·BUF 2

  14. 3rd·18:30

    Isak Rosen Wrist Shot saved by Arturs Silovs

    ·

    PIT 4·BUF 2

  15. 3rd·18:19

    Ben Kindel Snap Shot Wide Right

    PIT 4·BUF 2

  16. 3rd·18:06

    Ryan McLeod Tip-In saved by Arturs Silovs

    ·

    PIT 4·BUF 2

  17. 3rd·17:55

    Takeaway by Bowen Byram

    PIT 4·BUF 2

  18. 3rd·17:52

    Ben Kindel faceoff won against Ryan McLeod

    ·

    PIT 4·BUF 2

  19. 3rd·17:52

    Goalie Stopped

    PIT 4·BUF 2

  20. 3rd·17:51

    Tage Thompson Wrist Shot saved by Arturs Silovs

    ·

    PIT 4·BUF 2

  21. 3rd·17:13

    Parker Wotherspoon hit Josh Doan

    ·

    PIT 4·BUF 2

  22. 3rd·16:23

    Sidney Crosby faceoff won against Tage Thompson

    ·

    PIT 4·BUF 2

  23. 3rd·16:23

    High Stick

    PIT 4·BUF 2

  24. 3rd·16:20

    Avery Hayes Batted saved by Alex Lyon

    · ·

    PIT 4·BUF 2

  25. 3rd·16:19

    Avery Hayes Snap Shot saved by Alex Lyon

    · ·

    PIT 4·BUF 2

  26. 3rd·16:10

    Owen Power Tip-In saved by Arturs Silovs

    ·

    PIT 4·BUF 2

  27. 3rd·16:03

    Noah Ostlund Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    PIT 4·BUF 2

  28. 3rd·15:38

    Ben Kindel faceoff won against Noah Ostlund

    ·

    PIT 4·BUF 2

  29. 3rd·15:38

    Puck in Benches

    PIT 4·BUF 2

  30. 3rd·15:33

    Noah Ostlund faceoff won against Ben Kindel

    ·

    PIT 4·BUF 2

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

BUF

Home

32

Shots

27

0.0

PCT

20.0

15

PIM

11

30

Faceoffs W

36

8

Blocks

10

17

Giveaways

15

6

Takeaways

4

Betting line

BUF -1.5·O/U 6.5·PIT +105/BUF -125

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Ryan McLeodBUF · C
    BURSTS7299
  • Egor ChinakhovPIT · RW
    SHOT MPH94.799
  • Erik KarlssonPIT · D
    SKATE MPH22.897
  • Rasmus DahlinBUF · D
    DIST MI46.992
  • Bowen ByramBUF · D
    BURSTS1691

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · BUF favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-125

Close price

-125

Open no-vig

53.2%

Close no-vig

53.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR