Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PIT at BUF?

The model favors BUF, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3PIT

PIT

29-15-12

BUF

32-19-6

NHLThu, Feb 5FinalSeriesPIT leads series 2-0VegasBUF -125

PIT · top performer

Avery Hayes

RW · #85

2Points

—

SOG

BUF · top performer

Tage Thompson

C · #72

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BrazeauRW · #16	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	11:11
E. ChinakhovRW · #59	0	1	0	3	0	0	0	13:08
S. CrosbyC · #87	0	0	1	6	0	0	2	20:05
C. DewarC · #19	0	1	2	1	1	0	0	15:41
K. HayesRW · #13	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	7:07
A. HayesRW · #85	2	0	2	6	2	0	0	10:09
B. KindelC · #81	2	0	2	2	1	0	0	17:27
E. MalkinC · #71	0	1	0	5	0	0	4	17:59
A. ManthaRW · #39	0	1	1	0	0	0	2	16:30
R. McGroartyRW · #2	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	10:01
T. NovakC · #18	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	15:19
B. RustRW · #17	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	23:31

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CliftonD · #75	0	0	3	0	5	2	5	17:19
E. KarlssonD · #65	0	0	2	2	2	0	0	22:47
B. KulakD · #77	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	18:44
R. SheaD · #5	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	19:29
I. SolovyovD · #7	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	12:08
P. WotherspoonD · #28	0	1	2	1	5	2	0	23:37

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. SilovsG · #37	27	2	25	.926	59:38

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DoanRW · #91	0	0	-4	0	1	0	0	18:35
K. HeleniusC · #94	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	8:02
T. KozakC · #48	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	10:38
P. KrebsC · #19	0	0	0	0	2	0	7	10:40
B. MalenstynLW · #29	0	0	-1	2	4	0	0	11:10
R. McLeodC · #71	0	1	0	1	0	2	0	20:01
N. OstlundC · #86	0	0	-1	0	0	2	0	12:23
J. QuinnRW · #22	0	1	-1	4	0	0	0	19:24
I. RosenRW · #63	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	10:36
T. ThompsonC · #72	1	0	-3	7	1	0	0	23:18
A. TuchRW · #89	0	0	-2	3	0	0	2	20:53
J. ZuckerLW · #17	1	0	-1	1	1	0	0	18:48

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BrysonD · #78	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	4:19
B. ByramD · #4	0	1	-1	1	0	2	0	26:00
R. DahlinD · #26	0	1	-1	1	0	0	0	26:32
M. KesselringD · #8	0	0	-2	1	2	0	2	7:56
O. PowerD · #25	0	0	-1	3	0	3	0	25:12
M. SamuelssonD · #23	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	22:42

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. LyonG · #34	31	4	27	.871	56:51

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

BUF

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

20.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

PIT leads series 2-0

Nov 27

BUF2@

PIT4

Feb 6

PIT5@

BUF2today

Mar 6

BUF5@

PIT1

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BUF -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PIT+10549%

BUF-12556%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗

Line movement · 20 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PIT beat BUF 5-2. A. Hayes led the way — 2 G · 6 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
PIT	2	1	2	5
BUF	1	0	1	2

Period scoring

PIT won 3 · BUF won 0

PIT

BUF

Play-by-play · 327 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
PIT 5·BUF 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
PIT 5·BUF 2
3rd·19:59
Beck Malenstyn Wrist Shot saved by Arturs Silovs
·
PIT 5·BUF 2
3rd·19:46
Tyson Kozak faceoff won against Kevin Hayes
· ·
PIT 5·BUF 2
3rd·19:46
Ben Kindel Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Dewar (11)
·
PIT 5·BUF 2
3rd·19:42
Connor Dewar Snap Shot Wide Left
PIT 4·BUF 2
3rd·19:36
Alex Tuch Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
PIT 4·BUF 2
3rd·19:16
Alex Tuch Tip-In Wide Left
·
PIT 4·BUF 2
3rd·19:01
Josh Doan Wrist Shot Failed Bank Attempt
·
PIT 4·BUF 2
3rd·18:59
Rasmus Dahlin shot blocked by Bryan Rust
·
PIT 4·BUF 2
3rd·18:31
Connor Dewar faceoff won against Jason Zucker
·
PIT 4·BUF 2
3rd·18:31
Anthony Mantha Hooking against Owen Power
·
PIT 4·BUF 2
3rd·18:31
Goalie Stopped
PIT 4·BUF 2
3rd·18:30
Isak Rosen Wrist Shot saved by Arturs Silovs
·
PIT 4·BUF 2
3rd·18:19
Ben Kindel Snap Shot Wide Right
PIT 4·BUF 2
3rd·18:06
Ryan McLeod Tip-In saved by Arturs Silovs
·
PIT 4·BUF 2
3rd·17:55
Takeaway by Bowen Byram
PIT 4·BUF 2
3rd·17:52
Ben Kindel faceoff won against Ryan McLeod
·
PIT 4·BUF 2
3rd·17:52
Goalie Stopped
PIT 4·BUF 2
3rd·17:51
Tage Thompson Wrist Shot saved by Arturs Silovs
·
PIT 4·BUF 2
3rd·17:13
Parker Wotherspoon hit Josh Doan
·
PIT 4·BUF 2
3rd·16:23
Sidney Crosby faceoff won against Tage Thompson
·
PIT 4·BUF 2
3rd·16:23
High Stick
PIT 4·BUF 2
3rd·16:20
Avery Hayes Batted saved by Alex Lyon
· ·
PIT 4·BUF 2
3rd·16:19
Avery Hayes Snap Shot saved by Alex Lyon
· ·
PIT 4·BUF 2
3rd·16:10
Owen Power Tip-In saved by Arturs Silovs
·
PIT 4·BUF 2
3rd·16:03
Noah Ostlund Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
PIT 4·BUF 2
3rd·15:38
Ben Kindel faceoff won against Noah Ostlund
·
PIT 4·BUF 2
3rd·15:38
Puck in Benches
PIT 4·BUF 2
3rd·15:33
Noah Ostlund faceoff won against Ben Kindel
·
PIT 4·BUF 2

Betting line

BUF -1.5·O/U 6.5·PIT +105/BUF -125

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ittsburgh Penguins went into Buffalo Sabres and beat them, 5–2.

PIT +1.5 cashed (BUF lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.4%

ensemble · BUF favored

Elo Static
61.4%
P(BUF win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
61.4%
P(BUF win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
61.4%
P(BUF win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-125

Close price

-125

Open no-vig

53.2%

Close no-vig

53.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PIT at BUF?: The model favors BUF, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Team pages

Pittsburgh PenguinsBuffalo Sabres

Elsewhere in the NHL