Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LA at VGK?

The model favors VGK, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3VGK

23-19-14

VGK

27-16-14

NHLThu, Feb 5FinalSeriesVGK leads series 2-1VegasVGK -142

LA · top performer

Trevor Moore

LW · #12

1Points

—

SOG

VGK · top performer

Jack Eichel

C · #9

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ArmiaRW · #40	0	1	1	2	1	1	0	15:39
Q. ByfieldRW · #55	0	0	-1	5	1	1	2	17:40
K. FialaLW · #22	0	0	-1	2	0	1	0	18:58
S. HeleniusC · #79	0	0	-1	1	3	1	5	10:21
A. KempeRW · #9	0	0	-1	3	3	0	2	18:50
A. KopitarC · #11	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	20:09
A. KuzmenkoLW · #96	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	8:23
A. LaferriereRW · #14	0	0	-1	3	3	1	0	17:21
J. MalottLW · #39	0	0	-1	1	4	0	0	11:49
T. MooreLW · #12	1	0	0	2	1	0	0	17:45
C. PerryRW · #10	0	0	-1	2	0	1	0	19:30
T. WardRW · #52	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	11:25

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CeciD · #5	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	17:17
B. ClarkeD · #92	0	0	-1	3	0	2	0	24:37
D. DoughtyD · #8	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	21:03
B. DumoulinD · #2	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	19:39
J. EdmundsonD · #6	0	0	-2	1	0	2	0	17:25
J. MoverareD · #43	0	0	1	2	0	1	0	9:55

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. ForsbergG · #31	22	4	18	.818	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. BarbashevLW · #49	0	2	1	0	2	0	2	14:06
B. BowmanRW · #42	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	11:03
P. DorofeyevRW · #16	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	13:40
J. EichelC · #9	1	1	1	4	0	1	0	17:42
T. HertlC · #48	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	13:36
A. HoltzRW · #26	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	12:04
K. KolesarRW · #55	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	13:23
M. MarnerRW · #93	1	0	1	2	0	1	2	17:12
C. ReinhardtLW · #23	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	11:46
R. SmithRW · #19	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	16:54
M. StoneRW · #61	1	2	1	1	0	3	0	16:40
K. UchaczC · #77	0	0	0	1	1	2	5	12:06

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. AnderssonD · #4	0	0	2	0	0	5	0	24:03
N. HanifinD · #15	0	0	2	1	0	2	0	23:29
B. HuttonD · #17	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	12:09
K. KorczakD · #6	0	0	1	0	3	0	2	13:40
J. LauzonD · #5	0	0	-1	1	4	4	0	24:08
S. TheodoreD · #27	0	0	-1	1	0	1	2	22:22

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. HillG · #33	33	1	32	.970	59:57

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

Away

Stat

VGK

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

VGK leads series 2-1

Oct 9

LA6@

VGK5

Jan 15

VGK3@

LA2

Feb 6

LA1@

VGK4today

Feb 26

VGK6@

LA4

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

VGK -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

LA+12045%

VGK-14259%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗

Line movement · 13 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

VGK beat LA 4-1. J. Eichel led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
LA	1	0	0	1
VGK	4	0	0	4

Period scoring

LA won 0 · VGK won 1

VGK

Play-by-play · 344 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
LA 1·VGK 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
LA 1·VGK 4
3rd·19:57
Kaedan Korczak hit Jacob Moverare
·
LA 1·VGK 4
3rd·19:55
Jacob Moverare Wrist Shot saved by Adin Hill
·
LA 1·VGK 4
3rd·19:35
Kai Uchacz faceoff won against Samuel Helenius
·
LA 1·VGK 4
3rd·19:35
Icing
LA 1·VGK 4
3rd·19:32
Taylor Ward hit Kai Uchacz
·
LA 1·VGK 4
3rd·19:25
Samuel Helenius shot blocked by Ben Hutton
·
LA 1·VGK 4
3rd·19:20
Giveaway by Kaedan Korczak
LA 1·VGK 4
3rd·18:58
Adrian Kempe Snap Shot saved by Adin Hill
·
LA 1·VGK 4
3rd·18:53
Giveaway by Kai Uchacz
LA 1·VGK 4
3rd·17:47
Alex Laferriere hit Braeden Bowman
·
LA 1·VGK 4
3rd·17:46
Giveaway by Braeden Bowman
LA 1·VGK 4
3rd·17:31
Kai Uchacz faceoff won against Alex Laferriere
·
LA 1·VGK 4
3rd·17:31
Puck in Penalty Benches
LA 1·VGK 4
3rd·17:25
Alex Laferriere faceoff won against Kai Uchacz
·
LA 1·VGK 4
3rd·17:25
Goalie Stopped
LA 1·VGK 4
3rd·17:23
Cole Reinhardt Tip-In saved by Anton Forsberg
·
LA 1·VGK 4
3rd·17:06
Alex Laferriere faceoff won against Kai Uchacz
·
LA 1·VGK 4
3rd·17:06
Quinton Byfield Holding the stick against Braeden Bowman
·
LA 1·VGK 4
3rd·17:03
Takeaway by Braeden Bowman
LA 1·VGK 4
3rd·16:18
Anze Kopitar faceoff won against Tomas Hertl
·
LA 1·VGK 4
3rd·16:18
Icing
LA 1·VGK 4
3rd·16:04
Jeff Malott Wrist Shot saved by Adin Hill
·
LA 1·VGK 4
3rd·15:41
Jeremy Lauzon hit Kevin Fiala
·
LA 1·VGK 4
3rd·15:10
Alex Laferriere faceoff won against Mitch Marner
·
LA 1·VGK 4
3rd·15:10
Off-side
LA 1·VGK 4
3rd·14:48
Samuel Helenius shot blocked by Braeden Bowman
·
LA 1·VGK 4
3rd·14:27
Kai Uchacz faceoff won against Samuel Helenius
·
LA 1·VGK 4
3rd·14:27
Icing
LA 1·VGK 4

Betting line

VGK -1.5·O/U 5.5·LA +120/VGK -142

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

egas Golden Knights held off Los Angeles Kings, 4–1.

VGK -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.1%

ensemble · VGK favored

Elo Static
59.1%
P(VGK win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
59.1%
P(VGK win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
59.1%
P(VGK win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-142

Close price

-142

Open no-vig

56.3%

Close no-vig

56.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LA at VGK?: The model favors VGK, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Team pages

Los Angeles KingsVegas Golden Knights

Elsewhere in the NHL