Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in OTT at PHI?

The model favors PHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1OTT

OTT

28-22-7

PHI

25-20-11

NHLThu, Feb 5FinalSeriesOTT wins series 3-0VegasOTT -130

OTT · top performer

Nick Cousins

C · #21

1Points

—

SOG

PHI · top performer

Jamie Drysdale

D · #9

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AmadioRW · #22	0	1	0	2	1	2	0	17:53
D. BathersonRW · #19	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	15:44
N. CousinsC · #21	1	0	0	3	5	1	0	16:53
D. CozensC · #24	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	16:02
L. EllerC · #89	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	9:34
C. GirouxRW · #28	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	15:19
R. GreigC · #71	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	17:50
S. HallidayC · #83	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	7:34
S. PintoC · #12	0	1	0	2	4	1	0	18:33
T. StutzleC · #18	1	0	1	1	2	0	0	19:18
B. TkachukLW · #7	0	1	1	4	1	0	0	16:20
F. ZetterlundLW · #20	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	9:11

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. ChabotD · #72	0	0	1	3	0	2	0	24:29
N. JensenD · #3	0	0	1	0	1	2	0	21:23
T. KlevenD · #43	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	15:29
J. SandersonD · #85	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	21:59
J. SpenceD · #10	0	0	0	3	0	3	0	14:35
A. ZubD · #2	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	22:15

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ReimerG · #47	16	1	15	.938	60:47

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. BarkeyC · #52	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	9:44
B. BrinkRW · #10	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	17:16
N. CatesLW · #27	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	18:52
S. CouturierC · #14	0	0	0	2	1	0	2	14:23
C. DvorakC · #22	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	20:52
N. GrebenkinRW · #29	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	10:38
C. GrundstromRW · #91	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	9:27
G. HathawayRW · #19	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	8:17
T. KonecnyRW · #11	0	0	-1	2	2	0	0	20:46
M. MichkovRW · #39	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	14:58
O. TippettRW · #74	0	0	-1	1	3	0	0	15:41
T. ZegrasC · #46	0	1	0	1	3	0	0	21:17

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DrysdaleD · #9	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	23:17
N. JuulsenD · #47	0	0	-1	0	3	2	0	11:56
R. RistolainenD · #55	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	22:57
T. SanheimD · #6	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	24:11
N. SeelerD · #24	0	0	-1	0	0	2	0	14:11
C. YorkD · #8	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	22:42

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. VladarG · #80	27	2	25	.926	59:43

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

OTT

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

OTT wins series 3-0

Oct 23

PHI1@

OTT2

Nov 8

OTT3@

PHI2

Feb 6

OTT2@

PHI1today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OTT -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

OTT-13057%

PHI+11048%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗

Line movement · 24 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

OTT beat PHI 2-1. N. Cousins led the way — 1 G · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
OTT	0	1	0	1	2
PHI	0	0	1	0	1

Period scoring

OTT won 2 · PHI won 1

OTT

PHI

Play-by-play · 282 plays

period

event

player

OT·0:47
Game End
OTT 2·PHI 1
OT·0:47
End of OT
OTT 2·PHI 1
OT·0:47
Tim Stützle Goal (28) Backhand, assists: Brady Tkachuk (23)
·
OTT 2·PHI 1
OT·0:38
Travis Konecny Wrist Shot saved by James Reimer
·
OTT 1·PHI 1
OT·0:15
Tim Stützle Backhand Wide Left
·
OTT 1·PHI 1
OT·0:00
Claude Giroux faceoff won against Christian Dvorak
·
OTT 1·PHI 1
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
OTT 1·PHI 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
OTT 1·PHI 1
3rd·19:14
Jordan Spence Slap Shot saved by Dan Vladar
·
OTT 1·PHI 1
3rd·18:52
Claude Giroux hit Travis Sanheim
·
OTT 1·PHI 1
3rd·18:46
Christian Dvorak faceoff won against Tim Stützle
·
OTT 1·PHI 1
3rd·18:46
Jamie Drysdale Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Bobby Brink (11), Trevor Zegras (29)
· ·
OTT 1·PHI 1
3rd·18:27
Owen Tippett shot blocked by Michael Amadio
·
OTT 1·PHI 0
3rd·18:16
Trevor Zegras Snap Shot High and Wide Right
·
OTT 1·PHI 0
3rd·17:59
Owen Tippett Tip-In saved by James Reimer
·
OTT 1·PHI 0
3rd·17:52
Cam York Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
OTT 1·PHI 0
3rd·17:49
Giveaway by Jake Sanderson
OTT 1·PHI 0
3rd·17:21
Matvei Michkov hit Ridly Greig
·
OTT 1·PHI 0
3rd·17:20
Bobby Brink hit Dylan Cozens
·
OTT 1·PHI 0
3rd·17:20
Matvei Michkov Wrist Shot saved by James Reimer
·
OTT 1·PHI 0
3rd·16:52
Giveaway by Jamie Drysdale
OTT 1·PHI 0
3rd·16:51
Giveaway by Tim Stützle
OTT 1·PHI 0
3rd·16:38
Jamie Drysdale shot blocked by Nick Cousins
·
OTT 1·PHI 0
3rd·15:52
Christian Dvorak faceoff won against Lars Eller
·
OTT 1·PHI 0
3rd·15:52
Puck in Netting
OTT 1·PHI 0
3rd·15:50
Travis Konecny shot blocked by Thomas Chabot
·
OTT 1·PHI 0
3rd·14:45
Lars Eller faceoff won against Sean Couturier
·
OTT 1·PHI 0
3rd·14:45
Icing
OTT 1·PHI 0
3rd·14:19
Bobby Brink Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
OTT 1·PHI 0
3rd·13:59
Trevor Zegras hit Ridly Greig
·
OTT 1·PHI 0

Betting line

OTT -1.5·O/U 6.5·OTT -130/PHI +110

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ttawa Senators went into Philadelphia Flyers and beat them, 2–1 in overtime.

PHI +1.5 cashed (OTT won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.7%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
53.7%
P(PHI win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
53.7%
P(PHI win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
53.7%
P(PHI win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+110

Close price

+110

Open no-vig

45.7%

Close no-vig

45.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in OTT at PHI?: The model favors PHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Team pages

Ottawa SenatorsPhiladelphia Flyers

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