Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WSH at PHI?

The model favors WSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2PHI

WSH

28-23-7

PHI

25-20-10

NHLTue, Feb 3FinalSeriesPHI leads series 1-0VegasPHI -142

WSH · top performer

Anthony Beauvillier

LW · #72

2Points

—

SOG

PHI · top performer

Rasmus Ristolainen

D · #55

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. BeauvillierLW · #72	1	1	1	2	1	0	0	17:51
N. DowdC · #26	0	0	-1	0	5	2	0	15:57
B. DuhaimeRW · #22	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	9:01
E. FrankC · #53	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	14:25
H. LapierreC · #29	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	6:44
R. LeonardRW · #9	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	16:27
S. MilanoLW · #15	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6:09
A. OvechkinLW · #8	0	0	-2	4	2	0	2	15:35
A. ProtasC · #21	1	0	-1	2	0	0	0	20:27
J. SourdifRW · #34	0	1	0	2	3	0	2	15:48
D. StromeC · #17	0	0	-1	3	0	0	10	19:23
T. WilsonRW · #43	0	0	-1	2	1	1	0	20:19

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. CarlsonD · #74	0	0	-2	5	0	4	0	25:09
J. ChychrunD · #6	0	0	-2	0	0	1	2	23:59
M. FehervaryD · #42	0	0	1	0	2	1	0	18:54
M. RoyD · #3	0	0	1	1	2	2	0	17:26
R. SandinD · #38	0	0	-2	1	2	1	0	18:29
T. van RiemsdykD · #57	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	15:08

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. StevensonG · #33	21	3	18	.857	58:25

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. BarkeyC · #52	0	0	-1	0	3	0	0	11:06
B. BrinkRW · #10	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	18:41
N. CatesLW · #27	0	0	-1	2	1	0	0	16:37
S. CouturierC · #14	0	0	2	3	3	3	0	15:46
N. DeslauriersLW · #44	0	1	0	0	3	1	2	6:30
C. DvorakC · #22	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	20:38
N. GrebenkinRW · #29	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	13:18
C. GrundstromRW · #91	1	0	0	2	3	1	0	9:20
T. KonecnyRW · #11	0	2	1	0	0	1	0	19:39
M. MichkovRW · #39	0	1	0	1	0	1	0	15:54
O. TippettRW · #74	1	0	0	3	2	1	0	15:40
T. ZegrasC · #46	0	1	0	3	0	0	0	18:39

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DrysdaleD · #9	1	0	1	2	0	4	0	22:43
N. JuulsenD · #47	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	11:38
R. RistolainenD · #55	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	20:41
T. SanheimD · #6	0	1	3	0	1	4	0	23:18
N. SeelerD · #24	0	0	-1	1	1	2	0	15:55
C. YorkD · #8	0	0	-2	0	0	4	0	21:57

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. VladarG · #80	28	2	26	.929	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

33.3

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

PHI leads series 1-0

Feb 4

WSH2@

PHI4today

Feb 26

PHI1@

WSH3

Mar 11

WSH1@

PHI4

Mar 31

PHI4@

WSH6

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

WSH+12045%

PHI-14259%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗

Line movement · 22 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHI beat WSH 4-2. R. Ristolainen led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 2 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
WSH	0	1	1	2
PHI	1	1	2	4

Period scoring

WSH won 0 · PHI won 2

WSH

PHI

Play-by-play · 308 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
WSH 2·PHI 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
WSH 2·PHI 4
3rd·19:43
Noah Cates faceoff won against Justin Sourdif
·
WSH 2·PHI 4
3rd·19:43
Dylan Strome Misconduct
WSH 2·PHI 4
3rd·19:43
Rasmus Ristolainen Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (32)
·
WSH 2·PHI 4
3rd·19:39
Jakob Chychrun shot blocked by Travis Konecny
·
WSH 2·PHI 3
3rd·19:13
Giveaway by Tom Wilson
WSH 2·PHI 3
3rd·18:56
Rasmus Ristolainen shot blocked by Jakob Chychrun
·
WSH 2·PHI 3
3rd·18:41
Travis Konecny shot blocked by John Carlson
·
WSH 2·PHI 3
3rd·18:36
Dylan Strome faceoff won against Christian Dvorak
·
WSH 2·PHI 3
3rd·18:36
Puck in Netting
WSH 2·PHI 3
3rd·18:36
Alex Ovechkin Slap Shot saved by Dan Vladar
·
WSH 2·PHI 3
3rd·18:34
John Carlson shot blocked by Sean Couturier
·
WSH 2·PHI 3
3rd·18:22
Alex Ovechkin shot blocked by Sean Couturier
·
WSH 2·PHI 3
3rd·18:20
Aliaksei Protas Backhand saved by Dan Vladar
·
WSH 2·PHI 3
3rd·18:10
John Carlson Slap Shot Wide Left
·
WSH 2·PHI 3
3rd·18:08
Dylan Strome faceoff won against Christian Dvorak
·
WSH 2·PHI 3
3rd·18:08
Goalie Stopped
WSH 2·PHI 3
3rd·18:06
Matt Roy Snap Shot saved by Dan Vladar
·
WSH 2·PHI 3
3rd·18:06
Giveaway by Travis Konecny
WSH 2·PHI 3
3rd·17:02
Jakob Chychrun Backhand Failed Bank Attempt
·
WSH 2·PHI 3
3rd·16:57
Alex Ovechkin Snap Shot Wide Left
·
WSH 2·PHI 3
3rd·16:56
Dylan Strome faceoff won against Sean Couturier
·
WSH 2·PHI 3
3rd·16:56
Puck in Netting
WSH 2·PHI 3
3rd·16:54
Alex Ovechkin hit Jamie Drysdale
·
WSH 2·PHI 3
3rd·16:50
Christian Dvorak faceoff won against Dylan Strome
·
WSH 2·PHI 3
3rd·16:50
Net Dislodged by Goaltender
WSH 2·PHI 3
3rd·16:28
Jakob Chychrun shot blocked by Carl Grundstrom
·
WSH 2·PHI 3
3rd·16:27
Dylan Strome faceoff won against Christian Dvorak
·
WSH 2·PHI 3
3rd·16:27
Icing
WSH 2·PHI 3

Betting line

PHI -1.5·O/U 6.5·WSH +120/PHI -142

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

hiladelphia Flyers held off Washington Capitals, 4–2.

PHI -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.6%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
53.6%
P(PHI win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
53.6%
P(PHI win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
53.6%
P(PHI win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+120

Close price

+120

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WSH at PHI?: The model favors WSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Team pages

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