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FINAL+2PHI
WSH

WSH

28-23-7

24
PHI

PHI

25-20-10

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, Feb 3FinalSeriesPHI leads series 1-0VegasPHI -142

Recap · NHL

hiladelphia Flyers held off Washington Capitals, 4–2.

PHI -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

WSH · top performer

WSH
Anthony Beauvillier

Anthony Beauvillier

LW · #72

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

PHI · top performer

PHI
Travis Konecny

Travis Konecny

RW · #11

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · Washington Capitals at Philadelphia Flyers · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
2
4
WSH28-23-7PHI25-20-10
WSH

WSH

28-23-7

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
PHI

PHI

25-20-10

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

16

PIM

2

Season series

PHI leads series 1-0

Feb 4WSHWSH2@PHIPHI4today
Feb 26PHIPHI1@WSHWSH3
Mar 11WSHWSH1@PHIPHI4
Mar 31PHIPHI4@WSHWSH6

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

WSHWSH+12045%
PHIPHI-14259%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHI beat WSH 4-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
WSH0112
PHI1124

Period scoring

WSH won 0 · PHI won 2

0
1

1

1
1

2

1
2

3

WSH
PHI

Play-by-play · 308 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    WSH 2·PHI 4

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    WSH 2·PHI 4

  3. 3rd·19:43

    Noah Cates faceoff won against Justin Sourdif

    ·

    WSH 2·PHI 4

  4. 3rd·19:43

    Dylan Strome Misconduct

    WSH 2·PHI 4

  5. 3rd·19:43

    Rasmus Ristolainen Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (32)

    ·

    WSH 2·PHI 4

  6. 3rd·19:39

    Jakob Chychrun shot blocked by Travis Konecny

    ·

    WSH 2·PHI 3

  7. 3rd·19:13

    Giveaway by Tom Wilson

    WSH 2·PHI 3

  8. 3rd·18:56

    Rasmus Ristolainen shot blocked by Jakob Chychrun

    ·

    WSH 2·PHI 3

  9. 3rd·18:41

    Travis Konecny shot blocked by John Carlson

    ·

    WSH 2·PHI 3

  10. 3rd·18:36

    Dylan Strome faceoff won against Christian Dvorak

    ·

    WSH 2·PHI 3

  11. 3rd·18:36

    Puck in Netting

    WSH 2·PHI 3

  12. 3rd·18:36

    Alex Ovechkin Slap Shot saved by Dan Vladar

    ·

    WSH 2·PHI 3

  13. 3rd·18:34

    John Carlson shot blocked by Sean Couturier

    ·

    WSH 2·PHI 3

  14. 3rd·18:22

    Alex Ovechkin shot blocked by Sean Couturier

    ·

    WSH 2·PHI 3

  15. 3rd·18:20

    Aliaksei Protas Backhand saved by Dan Vladar

    ·

    WSH 2·PHI 3

  16. 3rd·18:10

    John Carlson Slap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    WSH 2·PHI 3

  17. 3rd·18:08

    Dylan Strome faceoff won against Christian Dvorak

    ·

    WSH 2·PHI 3

  18. 3rd·18:08

    Goalie Stopped

    WSH 2·PHI 3

  19. 3rd·18:06

    Matt Roy Snap Shot saved by Dan Vladar

    ·

    WSH 2·PHI 3

  20. 3rd·18:06

    Giveaway by Travis Konecny

    WSH 2·PHI 3

  21. 3rd·17:02

    Jakob Chychrun Backhand Failed Bank Attempt

    ·

    WSH 2·PHI 3

  22. 3rd·16:57

    Alex Ovechkin Snap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    WSH 2·PHI 3

  23. 3rd·16:56

    Dylan Strome faceoff won against Sean Couturier

    ·

    WSH 2·PHI 3

  24. 3rd·16:56

    Puck in Netting

    WSH 2·PHI 3

  25. 3rd·16:54

    Alex Ovechkin hit Jamie Drysdale

    ·

    WSH 2·PHI 3

  26. 3rd·16:50

    Christian Dvorak faceoff won against Dylan Strome

    ·

    WSH 2·PHI 3

  27. 3rd·16:50

    Net Dislodged by Goaltender

    WSH 2·PHI 3

  28. 3rd·16:28

    Jakob Chychrun shot blocked by Carl Grundstrom

    ·

    WSH 2·PHI 3

  29. 3rd·16:27

    Dylan Strome faceoff won against Christian Dvorak

    ·

    WSH 2·PHI 3

  30. 3rd·16:27

    Icing

    WSH 2·PHI 3

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

28

Shots

22

0.0

PCT

33.3

16

PIM

2

28

Faceoffs W

27

12

Blocks

25

9

Giveaways

21

4

Takeaways

3

Betting line

PHI -1.5·O/U 6.5·WSH +120/PHI -142

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • John CarlsonANA · D
    SHOT MPH102.799+
  • Ryan LeonardWSH · RW
    SKATE MPH24.399
  • Alex OvechkinWSH · LW
    SHOT MPH97.399
  • Jamie DrysdalePHI · D
    SKATE MPH23.098
  • Ethen FrankWSH · C
    BURSTS22797

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(PHI win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(PHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+120

Close price

+120

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR