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FINAL+1CAR
OTT

OTT

27-22-7

34
CAR

CAR

35-15-6

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, Feb 3FinalSeriesCAR leads series 2-0VegasCAR -180

Recap · NHL

arolina Hurricanes held off Ottawa Senators, 4–3.

OTT +1.5 cashed (CAR won by 1). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

OTT · top performer

OTT
Dylan Cozens

Dylan Cozens

C · #24

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

CAR · top performer

CAR
Sebastian Aho

Sebastian Aho

C · #20

3Points

1

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · Ottawa Senators at Carolina Hurricanes · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
3
4
OTT27-22-7CAR35-15-6
OTT

OTT

27-22-7

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
CAR

CAR

35-15-6

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

PIM

6

Playoff series

Apr 18OTTOTT0@CARCAR2
Apr 20OTTOTT2@CARCAR3
Apr 23CARCAR2@OTTOTT1
Apr 25CARCAR4@OTTOTT2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

OTTOTT+15040%
CARCAR-18064%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CAR beat OTT 4-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
OTT1113
CAR1214

Period scoring

OTT won 0 · CAR won 1

1
1

1

1
2

2

1
1

3

OTT
CAR

Play-by-play · 325 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    OTT 3·CAR 4

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    OTT 3·CAR 4

  3. 3rd·19:43

    Claude Giroux faceoff won against Sebastian Aho

    ·

    OTT 3·CAR 4

  4. 3rd·19:43

    On-Ice Official

    OTT 3·CAR 4

  5. 3rd·19:43

    Hand Pass

    OTT 3·CAR 4

  6. 3rd·19:37

    Jake Sanderson shot blocked by Jordan Martinook

    ·

    OTT 3·CAR 4

  7. 3rd·19:24

    Giveaway by Jalen Chatfield

    OTT 3·CAR 4

  8. 3rd·19:21

    Jordan Staal faceoff won against Brady Tkachuk

    ·

    OTT 3·CAR 4

  9. 3rd·19:21

    Icing

    OTT 3·CAR 4

  10. 3rd·19:15

    Jake Sanderson Slap Shot saved by Brandon Bussi

    ·

    OTT 3·CAR 4

  11. 3rd·18:54

    Brady Tkachuk faceoff won against Jordan Staal

    ·

    OTT 3·CAR 4

  12. 3rd·18:54

    Icing

    OTT 3·CAR 4

  13. 3rd·18:51

    Jaccob Slavin Snap Shot Wide Left

    OTT 3·CAR 4

  14. 3rd·18:29

    Brady Tkachuk faceoff won against Jordan Staal

    ·

    OTT 3·CAR 4

  15. 3rd·18:29

    High Stick

    OTT 3·CAR 4

  16. 3rd·18:15

    Sebastian Aho faceoff won against Tim Stützle

    ·

    OTT 3·CAR 4

  17. 3rd·18:15

    Icing

    OTT 3·CAR 4

  18. 3rd·17:55

    Giveaway by Brady Tkachuk

    OTT 3·CAR 4

  19. 3rd·17:53

    Giveaway by Sean Walker

    OTT 3·CAR 4

  20. 3rd·17:25

    Jackson Blake shot blocked by Taylor Hall

    ·

    OTT 3·CAR 4

  21. 3rd·17:20

    Thomas Chabot hit Taylor Hall

    ·

    OTT 3·CAR 4

  22. 3rd·16:51

    Shane Pinto hit Jackson Blake

    ·

    OTT 3·CAR 4

  23. 3rd·16:39

    Giveaway by Sean Walker

    OTT 3·CAR 4

  24. 3rd·16:16

    Dylan Cozens hit Nikolaj Ehlers

    ·

    OTT 3·CAR 4

  25. 3rd·16:08

    Takeaway by Ridly Greig

    OTT 3·CAR 4

  26. 3rd·15:17

    Tim Stützle faceoff won against Sebastian Aho

    ·

    OTT 3·CAR 4

  27. 3rd·15:17

    Puck in Benches

    OTT 3·CAR 4

  28. 3rd·14:53

    Sebastian Aho faceoff won against Tim Stützle

    ·

    OTT 3·CAR 4

  29. 3rd·14:53

    Jordan Staal Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (28)

    ·

    OTT 3·CAR 4

  30. 3rd·14:44

    Jordan Staal hit Tyler Kleven

    ·

    OTT 3·CAR 3

Team stats

OTT

Away

Stat

CAR

Home

27

Shots

19

66.7

PCT

50.0

4

PIM

6

33

Faceoffs W

33

16

Blocks

9

16

Giveaways

11

7

Takeaways

5

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 6.5·OTT +150/CAR -180

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Sean WalkerCAR · D
    SKATE MPH22.998
  • Taylor HallCAR · LW
    BURSTS4696
  • Sebastian AhoCAR · C
    DIST MI44.795
  • Nikolaj EhlersCAR · LW
    BURSTS3995
  • Seth JarvisCAR · C
    DIST MI39.992

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · CAR favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CAR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CAR win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CAR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR