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FINAL+1TB
BUF

BUF

32-18-6

34
TB

TB

36-14-4

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, Feb 3FinalSeriesTB leads series 1-0VegasTB -205

Recap · NHL

ampa Bay Lightning held off Buffalo Sabres, 4–3 in overtime.

BUF +1.5 cashed (TB won by 1). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BUF · top performer

BUF
Josh Doan

Josh Doan

RW · #91

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

TB · top performer

TB
Nikita Kucherov

Nikita Kucherov

RW · #86

4Points

1

G

3

A

—

SOG

NHL · Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT
3
4
BUF32-18-6TB36-14-4
BUF

BUF

32-18-6

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
TB

TB

36-14-4

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

PIM

6

Season series

TB leads series 1-0

Feb 4BUFBUF3@TBTB4today
Mar 1BUFBUF6@TBTB2
Mar 8TBTB7@BUFBUF8
Apr 6TBTB2@BUFBUF4

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BUFBUF+17037%
TBTB-20567%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TB beat BUF 4-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTT
BUF10203
TB10214

Period scoring

BUF won 0 · TB won 1

1
1

1

0
0

2

2
2

3

0
1

OT

BUF
TB

Play-by-play · 324 plays

period
event
player
  1. OT·4:45

    Game End

    BUF 3·TB 4

  2. OT·4:45

    End of OT

    BUF 3·TB 4

  3. OT·4:45

    Jake Guentzel Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (61), J.J. Moser (14)

    · ·

    BUF 3·TB 4

  4. OT·4:32

    Alex Tuch Snap Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy

    ·

    BUF 3·TB 3

  5. OT·4:26

    Takeaway by Alex Tuch

    BUF 3·TB 3

  6. OT·4:05

    Jake Guentzel faceoff won against Alex Tuch

    ·

    BUF 3·TB 3

  7. OT·4:05

    Puck in Netting

    BUF 3·TB 3

  8. OT·4:01

    Alex Tuch faceoff won against Jake Guentzel

    ·

    BUF 3·TB 3

  9. OT·4:01

    Goalie Stopped

    BUF 3·TB 3

  10. OT·3:59

    Rasmus Dahlin Snap Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy

    ·

    BUF 3·TB 3

  11. OT·3:31

    Nikita Kucherov Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    BUF 3·TB 3

  12. OT·2:43

    Takeaway by Dominic James

    BUF 3·TB 3

  13. OT·2:33

    Darren Raddysh Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    BUF 3·TB 3

  14. OT·2:22

    Tage Thompson Backhand saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy

    ·

    BUF 3·TB 3

  15. OT·1:44

    Giveaway by Ryan McLeod

    BUF 3·TB 3

  16. OT·1:19

    Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Yanni Gourde

    ·

    BUF 3·TB 3

  17. OT·1:19

    Puck in Netting

    BUF 3·TB 3

  18. OT·1:17

    Mattias Samuelsson Snap Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy

    ·

    BUF 3·TB 3

  19. OT·0:45

    Rasmus Dahlin Snap Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy

    ·

    BUF 3·TB 3

  20. OT·0:41

    Takeaway by Rasmus Dahlin

    BUF 3·TB 3

  21. OT·0:00

    Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Jake Guentzel

    ·

    BUF 3·TB 3

  22. OT·0:00

    Start of Overtime

    BUF 3·TB 3

  23. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    BUF 3·TB 3

  24. 3rd·19:34

    Yanni Gourde faceoff won against Ryan McLeod

    ·

    BUF 3·TB 3

  25. 3rd·19:34

    Darren Raddysh Goal (17) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (60), Brandon Hagel (27)

    · ·

    BUF 3·TB 3

  26. 3rd·19:28

    Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Alex Tuch

    ·

    BUF 3·TB 2

  27. 3rd·18:57

    Tage Thompson faceoff won against Yanni Gourde

    ·

    BUF 3·TB 2

  28. 3rd·18:57

    Puck in Netting

    BUF 3·TB 2

  29. 3rd·18:55

    Tage Thompson hit Brandon Hagel

    ·

    BUF 3·TB 2

  30. 3rd·18:50

    Yanni Gourde faceoff won against Tage Thompson

    ·

    BUF 3·TB 2

Team stats

BUF

Away

Stat

TB

Home

26

Shots

35

33.3

PCT

50.0

4

PIM

6

30

Faceoffs W

31

10

Blocks

10

22

Giveaways

15

9

Takeaways

6

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 6.5·BUF +170/TB -205

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 skaters with EDGE
  • Ryan McLeodBUF · C
    BURSTS7299
  • Rasmus DahlinBUF · D
    DIST MI46.992
  • Bowen ByramBUF · D
    BURSTS1691
  • Jack QuinnBUF · RW
    BURSTS3191
  • Mattias SamuelssonBUF · D
    DIST MI41.088

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · TB favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(TB win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(TB win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+170

Close price

+170

Open no-vig

35.5%

Close no-vig

35.5%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR