Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BUF at TB?

The model favors BUF, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1TB

BUF

32-18-6

36-14-4

NHLTue, Feb 3FinalSeriesTB leads series 1-0VegasTB -205

BUF · top performer

Mattias Samuelsson

D · #23

2Points

—

SOG

TB · top performer

Nikita Kucherov

RW · #86

4Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DoanRW · #91	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	16:29
K. HeleniusC · #94	0	0	1	1	3	1	0	13:47
T. KozakC · #48	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	12:25
P. KrebsC · #19	0	0	-2	1	3	0	0	17:47
B. MalenstynLW · #29	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	9:08
R. McLeodC · #71	0	1	0	2	0	1	0	19:31
N. OstlundC · #86	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	14:36
J. QuinnRW · #22	0	1	0	2	1	0	0	17:50
I. RosenRW · #63	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8:17
T. ThompsonC · #72	0	1	-1	5	1	0	0	22:09
A. TuchRW · #89	0	0	-2	1	0	1	0	22:38
J. ZuckerLW · #17	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	17:10

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BrysonD · #78	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:01
B. ByramD · #4	0	0	-1	0	0	1	2	23:37
R. DahlinD · #26	0	1	0	7	0	2	0	27:47
Z. MetsaD · #73	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	11:12
O. PowerD · #25	0	0	-1	1	0	2	0	21:51
M. SamuelssonD · #23	2	0	1	3	2	0	0	24:01

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. EllisG · #92	35	4	31	.886	64:24

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. BjorkstrandRW · #22	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	15:04
C. DouglasC · #42	0	0	0	1	2	0	2	5:45
J. FinleyC · #62	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	7:43
Z. GirgensonsC · #28	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	17:07
G. GoncalvesC · #93	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	13:52
Y. GourdeC · #37	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	20:01
J. GuentzelC · #59	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	26:07
B. HagelLW · #38	0	1	0	4	1	0	0	25:40
P. HolmbergRW · #29	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	16:31
D. JamesC · #17	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	13:02
N. KucherovRW · #86	1	3	1	7	0	1	0	22:24
S. SabourinRW · #46	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	6:03

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. CarlileD · #67	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	15:08
E. CernakD · #81	0	0	0	2	0	3	0	18:04
V. HedmanD · #77	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	17:39
R. McDonaghD · #27	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	19:40
J.J. MoserD · #90	0	1	-1	2	0	3	2	23:51
D. RaddyshD · #43	1	1	-1	3	2	2	0	25:48

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. VasilevskiyG · #88	26	3	23	.885	63:33

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

BUF

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

TB leads series 1-0

Feb 4

BUF3@

TB4today

Mar 1

BUF6@

TB2

Mar 8

TB7@

BUF8

Apr 6

TB2@

BUF4

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BUF+17037%

TB-20567%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 15 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TB beat BUF 4-3. N. Kucherov led the way — 1 G · 3 A · 7 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
BUF	1	0	2	0	3
TB	1	0	2	1	4

Period scoring

BUF won 0 · TB won 1

BUF

Play-by-play · 324 plays

period

event

player

OT·4:45
Game End
BUF 3·TB 4
OT·4:45
End of OT
BUF 3·TB 4
OT·4:45
Jake Guentzel Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (61), J.J. Moser (14)
· ·
BUF 3·TB 4
OT·4:32
Alex Tuch Snap Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
BUF 3·TB 3
OT·4:26
Takeaway by Alex Tuch
BUF 3·TB 3
OT·4:05
Jake Guentzel faceoff won against Alex Tuch
·
BUF 3·TB 3
OT·4:05
Puck in Netting
BUF 3·TB 3
OT·4:01
Alex Tuch faceoff won against Jake Guentzel
·
BUF 3·TB 3
OT·4:01
Goalie Stopped
BUF 3·TB 3
OT·3:59
Rasmus Dahlin Snap Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
BUF 3·TB 3
OT·3:31
Nikita Kucherov Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
BUF 3·TB 3
OT·2:43
Takeaway by Dominic James
BUF 3·TB 3
OT·2:33
Darren Raddysh Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
BUF 3·TB 3
OT·2:22
Tage Thompson Backhand saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
BUF 3·TB 3
OT·1:44
Giveaway by Ryan McLeod
BUF 3·TB 3
OT·1:19
Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Yanni Gourde
·
BUF 3·TB 3
OT·1:19
Puck in Netting
BUF 3·TB 3
OT·1:17
Mattias Samuelsson Snap Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
BUF 3·TB 3
OT·0:45
Rasmus Dahlin Snap Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
BUF 3·TB 3
OT·0:41
Takeaway by Rasmus Dahlin
BUF 3·TB 3
OT·0:00
Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Jake Guentzel
·
BUF 3·TB 3
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
BUF 3·TB 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
BUF 3·TB 3
3rd·19:34
Yanni Gourde faceoff won against Ryan McLeod
·
BUF 3·TB 3
3rd·19:34
Darren Raddysh Goal (17) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (60), Brandon Hagel (27)
· ·
BUF 3·TB 3
3rd·19:28
Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Alex Tuch
·
BUF 3·TB 2
3rd·18:57
Tage Thompson faceoff won against Yanni Gourde
·
BUF 3·TB 2
3rd·18:57
Puck in Netting
BUF 3·TB 2
3rd·18:55
Tage Thompson hit Brandon Hagel
·
BUF 3·TB 2
3rd·18:50
Yanni Gourde faceoff won against Tage Thompson
·
BUF 3·TB 2

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 6.5·BUF +170/TB -205

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ampa Bay Lightning held off Buffalo Sabres, 4–3 in overtime.

BUF +1.5 cashed (TB won by 1). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.4%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
61.4%
P(TB win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
61.4%
P(TB win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
61.4%
P(TB win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+170

Close price

+170

Open no-vig

35.5%

Close no-vig

35.5%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BUF at TB?: The model favors BUF, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Team pages

Buffalo SabresTampa Bay Lightning

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