Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SEA at ANA?

The model favors ANA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2ANA

SEA

26-20-9

ANA

30-23-3

NHLTue, Feb 3FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasANA -142

SEA · top performer

Jordan Eberle

RW · #7

1Points

—

SOG

ANA · top performer

Cutter Gauthier

LW · #61

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BeniersC · #10	0	0	-2	2	0	1	2	18:10
J. EberleRW · #7	1	0	-1	2	1	0	0	15:42
F. GaudreauC · #89	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	14:50
K. KakkoRW · #84	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	12:16
T. KartyeLW · #12	1	0	1	2	1	1	0	11:57
J. McCannLW · #19	0	1	0	4	1	0	0	16:50
J. MelansonRW · #63	0	0	0	3	2	0	12	8:14
J. SchwartzC · #17	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	13:28
C. StephensonC · #9	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	19:02
E. TolvanenRW · #20	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	15:05
R. WintertonC · #26	0	0	-1	6	0	0	0	14:13
S. WrightC · #51	0	0	1	1	1	2	0	16:21

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. DunnD · #29	0	1	-1	3	1	0	0	21:00
R. EvansD · #41	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	16:39
A. LarssonD · #6	0	0	-2	0	0	5	2	20:06
R. LindgrenD · #55	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	17:45
B. MontourD · #62	0	0	-1	2	1	5	2	24:14
J. OleksiakD · #24	0	0	-1	1	1	2	2	19:56

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. GrubauerG · #31	31	4	27	.871	56:12

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. GauthierLW · #61	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	18:24
M. GranlundC · #64	0	1	1	1	1	0	2	19:05
J. HarkinsC · #24	0	2	1	1	0	0	0	11:11
R. JohnstonLW · #44	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	9:24
A. KillornLW · #17	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	16:21
C. KreiderLW · #20	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	18:57
M. McTavishC · #23	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	14:01
R. PoehlingC · #25	0	1	2	1	2	1	0	16:58
B. SenneckeRW · #45	0	0	1	5	1	0	0	18:43
T. TerryRW · #19	0	0	-1	3	0	0	0	16:00
J. VielLW · #28	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	13:38
T. WasheC · #42	0	1	-1	1	2	0	0	10:51

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. GudasD · #7	0	0	1	2	2	3	0	17:19
J. LaCombeD · #2	0	2	1	0	0	3	0	23:19
P. MintyukovD · #98	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	19:20
I. MooreD · #74	0	1	1	0	1	3	0	17:48
J. TroubaD · #65	1	0	-1	1	0	1	2	19:28
O. ZellwegerD · #51	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	17:13

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. DostalG · #1	28	2	26	.929	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

ANA

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Oct 10

ANA1@

SEA3

Dec 23

SEA3@

ANA1

Jan 24

ANA4@

SEA2

Feb 4

SEA2@

ANA4today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ANA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SEA+12045%

ANA-14259%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ANA -1.5↗SpreadBet ANA -1.5↗

Line movement · 24 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ANA beat SEA 4-2. C. Gauthier led the way — 1 G · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
SEA	0	0	2	2
ANA	0	2	2	4

Period scoring

SEA won 0 · ANA won 1

SEA

ANA

Play-by-play · 322 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
SEA 2·ANA 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
SEA 2·ANA 4
3rd·19:52
Brandon Montour hit Alex Killorn
·
SEA 2·ANA 4
3rd·19:48
Jared McCann Slap Shot saved by Lukas Dostal
·
SEA 2·ANA 4
3rd·19:46
Chandler Stephenson faceoff won against Tim Washe
·
SEA 2·ANA 4
3rd·19:46
Icing
SEA 2·ANA 4
3rd·19:36
Brandon Montour Wrist Shot saved by Lukas Dostal
·
SEA 2·ANA 4
3rd·19:33
Chandler Stephenson Snap Shot Hit Left Post
·
SEA 2·ANA 4
3rd·19:29
Matty Beniers faceoff won against Tim Washe
·
SEA 2·ANA 4
3rd·19:29
Timeout - Visitor
SEA 2·ANA 4
3rd·19:29
Puck Frozen - Goalie
SEA 2·ANA 4
3rd·19:25
Eeli Tolvanen shot blocked by Ian Moore
·
SEA 2·ANA 4
3rd·19:10
Giveaway by Alex Killorn
SEA 2·ANA 4
3rd·19:06
Brandon Montour Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
SEA 2·ANA 4
3rd·18:48
Brandon Montour Snap Shot Wide Left
·
SEA 2·ANA 4
3rd·18:33
Matty Beniers Snap Shot saved by Lukas Dostal
·
SEA 2·ANA 4
3rd·18:26
Jordan Eberle Tip-In Wide Left
·
SEA 2·ANA 4
3rd·18:17
Chandler Stephenson faceoff won against Tim Washe
·
SEA 2·ANA 4
3rd·18:17
Icing
SEA 2·ANA 4
3rd·17:49
Chandler Stephenson faceoff won against Tim Washe
·
SEA 2·ANA 4
3rd·17:49
Puck Frozen - Goalie
SEA 2·ANA 4
3rd·17:46
Jordan Eberle Backhand saved by Lukas Dostal
·
SEA 2·ANA 4
3rd·17:45
Jared McCann Snap Shot saved by Lukas Dostal
·
SEA 2·ANA 4
3rd·17:43
Pavel Mintyukov hit Chandler Stephenson
·
SEA 2·ANA 4
3rd·17:29
Mikael Granlund faceoff won against Chandler Stephenson
·
SEA 2·ANA 4
3rd·17:29
Tye Kartye Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none
SEA 2·ANA 4
3rd·17:25
Lukas Dostal shot blocked by Tye Kartye
·
SEA 1·ANA 4
3rd·17:06
Ryan Poehling faceoff won against Freddy Gaudreau
·
SEA 1·ANA 4
3rd·17:06
Goalie Stopped
SEA 1·ANA 4
3rd·17:04
Jared McCann Slap Shot saved by Lukas Dostal
·
SEA 1·ANA 4

Betting line

ANA -1.5·O/U 6.5·SEA +120/ANA -142

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

naheim Ducks held off Seattle Kraken, 4–2.

ANA -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.2%

ensemble · ANA favored

Elo Static
58.2%
P(ANA win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
58.2%
P(ANA win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
58.2%
P(ANA win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-142

Close price

-142

Open no-vig

56.3%

Close no-vig

56.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SEA at ANA?: The model favors ANA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Team pages

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